Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles (now Invest 92L)

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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave with low-latitude low center

#21 Postby AJC3 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:13 am

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc associated with a 1011 mb
low located near 08N46W, which is expected to move WNW towards
12N49W within the next 24 hours. The wave axis extends from
16N44W to the low center to 06N46W, and has been moving W at 5
kt. The wave is in a region of mainly strong vertical wind shear
and is experiencing dry air intrusion to its environment as
indicated by CIRA LPW imagery at the lower levels. This is
limiting convection to scattered moderate from 10N-15N between
44W-48W.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave with low-latitude low center

#22 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:02 am

Very confusing but think this is the wave that closes a low into Central Florida in 7 days on the 06z GFS?
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave with low-latitude low center

#23 Postby AJC3 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 10:40 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Very confusing but think this is the wave that closes a low into Central Florida in 7 days on the 06z GFS?


It isn't the same disturbance. The t-wave mentioned above winds up deforming as it turns northward over the central Atlantic near 50-53W.

The system that the models are keying on moving over the SW north Atlantic in 4-7 days has its origin (at least at the surface) in about 2.5 days about 10 degrees farther to the west, around 59-62W. It forms as an inverted trough via strong jet level forcing from a mid to upper level low to its northwest.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W

#24 Postby AJC3 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 3:48 am

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc associated with a 1010 mb
low located near 13N47W, which is expected to move WNW towards
14N50W within the next 24 hours. The wave axis extends from
18N46W to the low center to 05N48W, and has been moving W at 10
kt. The wave is in a region of mainly strong vertical wind shear N
of 15N and some dry air intrusion to its environment is observed
in both CIRA LPW and SSMI TPW imagery. This is limiting
convection to scattered moderate from 10N-16N between 40W-49W.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W

#25 Postby abajan » Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:14 am

Excerpt from 7:10 AM TWD:

...GALE WARNING...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
18N47W to 07N48W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a region of
mainly strong vertical wind shear N of 15N and some dry air
intrusion to its environment is observed in both CIRA LPW and SSMI
TPW imagery. This is limiting convection to scattered moderate
from 11N-17N between 46W-50W. Latest scatterometer data shows gale
force winds associated with this wave from 14N-16N between 44W-
48W.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#26 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:15 am

Well since I think the thread for this is locked ill post here. though the only model left that develops this is the CMC it is, however, showing some better vorticity today and a much sharper wave axis and clear broad rotation so watch it convection starts to build today. it is lower latitude than the GFS has it. GFS has it moving wnw to nw into high shear. however that does not seem to be the case( at least not right now). It is moving into a low shear environment, high moisture, however, environemnt seems to be a little stable at the moment but it is not clear to me if it is or not. ANNYWAYYY.. this has a better shot than the upper low north of DR ..

Image

Image

Image
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#27 Postby chaser1 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:45 am

Aric, I think you're right here. I'm thinking that this could make a run to spin up as it's about to approach the Windward's perhaps. In a year where systems have had minimal difficulty developing I'd think that NHC would be giving at least a little credence to this wave.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#28 Postby chaser1 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:50 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Well since I think the thread for this is locked ill post here. though the only model left that develops this is the CMC it is, however, showing some better vorticity today and a much sharper wave axis and clear broad rotation so watch it convection starts to build today. it is lower latitude than the GFS has it. GFS has it moving wnw to nw into high shear. however that does not seem to be the case( at least not right now). It is moving into a low shear environment, high moisture, however, environemnt seems to be a little stable at the moment but it is not clear to me if it is or not. ANNYWAYYY.. this has a better shot than the upper low north of DR ..

Image

Image

Image


Just noticed..... there is a thread (Tropics - Tropical Wave at 47W) for this after-all.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W

#29 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:53 am

unlocked
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W

#30 Postby Gustywind » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:00 pm

So, Aric you think that this little thing could reach a TD or TS status close the Windwards/ Leewards islands before the weekend? :roll: :(
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W

#31 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:14 pm

Gustywind wrote:So, Aric you think that this little thing could reach a TD or TS status close the Windwards/ Leewards islands before the weekend? :roll: :(


it has a small window to develop ( at least right now). chances are not high... just have to watch it for any convection.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W

#32 Postby Gustywind » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:22 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Gustywind wrote:So, Aric you think that this little thing could reach a TD or TS status close the Windwards/ Leewards islands before the weekend? :roll: :(


it has a small window to develop ( at least right now). chances are not high... just have to watch it for any convection.

Ok thanks :) , hope nothing will form from that! Hopefully chances are not high. Anyway, let's wait and see what could happens.
Regards.
Gustywind :)
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W

#33 Postby abajan » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:25 pm

Convection really firing tonight.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W

#34 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:29 pm

abajan wrote:Convection really firing tonight.
i notice that too
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W

#35 Postby stormreader » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:54 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
abajan wrote:Convection really firing tonight.
i notice that too

Yes indeed! Perhaps models have missed development here, but it looks much more ominous this evening.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W

#36 Postby rickybobby » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:57 pm

Where is it located at now?
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W

#37 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:59 pm

850 mb vorticity has increased a lot today...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W

#38 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:08 pm

looks like a circ/vort is just to the west of the deep convection.. here in the nighttime visible loop.. just focus on the low levels. pretty clear.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

if convection fills in within this area then it might have a real shot..

Image
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W

#39 Postby rickybobby » Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:32 pm

It still feels like summer in Florida. Water temps must be high.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W

#40 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:34 pm

ascat continues to miss is.. but there is clearly a very sharp trough and likely a weak vort in there somewhere ( which you can see in the loop.. )

Image
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