Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles (now Invest 92L)
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- AJC3
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave with low-latitude low center
A tropical wave is in the central Atlc associated with a 1011 mb
low located near 08N46W, which is expected to move WNW towards
12N49W within the next 24 hours. The wave axis extends from
16N44W to the low center to 06N46W, and has been moving W at 5
kt. The wave is in a region of mainly strong vertical wind shear
and is experiencing dry air intrusion to its environment as
indicated by CIRA LPW imagery at the lower levels. This is
limiting convection to scattered moderate from 10N-15N between
44W-48W.
low located near 08N46W, which is expected to move WNW towards
12N49W within the next 24 hours. The wave axis extends from
16N44W to the low center to 06N46W, and has been moving W at 5
kt. The wave is in a region of mainly strong vertical wind shear
and is experiencing dry air intrusion to its environment as
indicated by CIRA LPW imagery at the lower levels. This is
limiting convection to scattered moderate from 10N-15N between
44W-48W.
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave with low-latitude low center
Very confusing but think this is the wave that closes a low into Central Florida in 7 days on the 06z GFS?
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- AJC3
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave with low-latitude low center
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Very confusing but think this is the wave that closes a low into Central Florida in 7 days on the 06z GFS?
It isn't the same disturbance. The t-wave mentioned above winds up deforming as it turns northward over the central Atlantic near 50-53W.
The system that the models are keying on moving over the SW north Atlantic in 4-7 days has its origin (at least at the surface) in about 2.5 days about 10 degrees farther to the west, around 59-62W. It forms as an inverted trough via strong jet level forcing from a mid to upper level low to its northwest.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
A tropical wave is in the central Atlc associated with a 1010 mb
low located near 13N47W, which is expected to move WNW towards
14N50W within the next 24 hours. The wave axis extends from
18N46W to the low center to 05N48W, and has been moving W at 10
kt. The wave is in a region of mainly strong vertical wind shear N
of 15N and some dry air intrusion to its environment is observed
in both CIRA LPW and SSMI TPW imagery. This is limiting
convection to scattered moderate from 10N-16N between 40W-49W.
low located near 13N47W, which is expected to move WNW towards
14N50W within the next 24 hours. The wave axis extends from
18N46W to the low center to 05N48W, and has been moving W at 10
kt. The wave is in a region of mainly strong vertical wind shear N
of 15N and some dry air intrusion to its environment is observed
in both CIRA LPW and SSMI TPW imagery. This is limiting
convection to scattered moderate from 10N-16N between 40W-49W.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
Excerpt from 7:10 AM TWD:
...GALE WARNING...
A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
18N47W to 07N48W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a region of
mainly strong vertical wind shear N of 15N and some dry air
intrusion to its environment is observed in both CIRA LPW and SSMI
TPW imagery. This is limiting convection to scattered moderate
from 11N-17N between 46W-50W. Latest scatterometer data shows gale
force winds associated with this wave from 14N-16N between 44W-
48W.
...GALE WARNING...
A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
18N47W to 07N48W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a region of
mainly strong vertical wind shear N of 15N and some dry air
intrusion to its environment is observed in both CIRA LPW and SSMI
TPW imagery. This is limiting convection to scattered moderate
from 11N-17N between 46W-50W. Latest scatterometer data shows gale
force winds associated with this wave from 14N-16N between 44W-
48W.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Well since I think the thread for this is locked ill post here. though the only model left that develops this is the CMC it is, however, showing some better vorticity today and a much sharper wave axis and clear broad rotation so watch it convection starts to build today. it is lower latitude than the GFS has it. GFS has it moving wnw to nw into high shear. however that does not seem to be the case( at least not right now). It is moving into a low shear environment, high moisture, however, environemnt seems to be a little stable at the moment but it is not clear to me if it is or not. ANNYWAYYY.. this has a better shot than the upper low north of DR ..
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Aric, I think you're right here. I'm thinking that this could make a run to spin up as it's about to approach the Windward's perhaps. In a year where systems have had minimal difficulty developing I'd think that NHC would be giving at least a little credence to this wave.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Aric Dunn wrote:Well since I think the thread for this is locked ill post here. though the only model left that develops this is the CMC it is, however, showing some better vorticity today and a much sharper wave axis and clear broad rotation so watch it convection starts to build today. it is lower latitude than the GFS has it. GFS has it moving wnw to nw into high shear. however that does not seem to be the case( at least not right now). It is moving into a low shear environment, high moisture, however, environemnt seems to be a little stable at the moment but it is not clear to me if it is or not. ANNYWAYYY.. this has a better shot than the upper low north of DR ..
Just noticed..... there is a thread (Tropics - Tropical Wave at 47W) for this after-all.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
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- Gustywind
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
So, Aric you think that this little thing could reach a TD or TS status close the Windwards/ Leewards islands before the weekend?
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
Gustywind wrote:So, Aric you think that this little thing could reach a TD or TS status close the Windwards/ Leewards islands before the weekend?
it has a small window to develop ( at least right now). chances are not high... just have to watch it for any convection.
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- Gustywind
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
Aric Dunn wrote:Gustywind wrote:So, Aric you think that this little thing could reach a TD or TS status close the Windwards/ Leewards islands before the weekend?
it has a small window to develop ( at least right now). chances are not high... just have to watch it for any convection.
Ok thanks , hope nothing will form from that! Hopefully chances are not high. Anyway, let's wait and see what could happens.
Regards.
Gustywind
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
i notice that tooabajan wrote:Convection really firing tonight.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
floridasun78 wrote:i notice that tooabajan wrote:Convection really firing tonight.
Yes indeed! Perhaps models have missed development here, but it looks much more ominous this evening.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
looks like a circ/vort is just to the west of the deep convection.. here in the nighttime visible loop.. just focus on the low levels. pretty clear.
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider
if convection fills in within this area then it might have a real shot..
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider
if convection fills in within this area then it might have a real shot..
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
It still feels like summer in Florida. Water temps must be high.
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Re: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave along 47W
ascat continues to miss is.. but there is clearly a very sharp trough and likely a weak vort in there somewhere ( which you can see in the loop.. )
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