Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles (now Invest 92L)

[wxman57]

It's not looking good at the end of the TPW loop. Looks like it will pass north of the Caribbean and get sheared apart. Development chances near zero.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

It looks like to me southern part of this wave (per WV loop) continues to track west but doesn't look any good. But it could get organized when it's inside Carribean i assume it, and it's near an anticyclone so this wave needs to be watched. It looks to me similar to Matthew-Nicole situation if i know it.

[Aric Dunn]

Dont count it out yet.. that large recent convective burst under the upper high was showing some SW to wsw inflow just before sunset. being elongated the way it is anywhere convection build could easily develop a low level circ. there is some curvature to the way this recent convection is building. Still plenty of potential.

[Gustywind]

though most of the convection is on the east side of the wave axis there is at least two vorts one well to the south ( most likely to survive) and the to the north without convection. Is is maintaining convection quite well actually and shear on the southern portion is low.

the cmc shoots the northern vort north west because it also wants to develop that convection well north so the two systems interact.

otherwise the steering is to the west or wnw.. definately needs to be watched. very surprised not even a mention from the NHC..

No special mention of the NHC good news... should stay a twave hopefully So great for us in the EC

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1228 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017


...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 08N52W to 18N49W moving W at 15-20
kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 46W-55W and
a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near
13N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from
07N-18N between 43W-54W.

Well I would not write it off just yet. there is cleraly a low level vort on the north end. the cmc, gfs, and 12z euro eventually develop it in some manner. as for it being any sort of threat to the islands that was never really an issue. shear is lowering especially on the south side. chances are not zero.. more around 30 to 40 percent in a few days.

I know how great are you inputs Aric! Waouw you think that really Aric? ho ho so we should keep an eye on this ?! 30 to 40 % given your best thought... that's high! Our Pro Mets of Guadeloupe, call Saturday for a passing twave with strong showers and isolated tstorms with periods of calm while Sunday the weather should be a little more perturbed with more tstorms.
Anyway, let's wait and see how this thing will evolve during the next 12h-24h approaching the islands.

Gustywind

[Hurricaneman]

I have to wonder if this could develop as it has a good moisture envelop but the big thing against is the shear

[EquusStorm]

Hey, we have a TWO mention! 0/20

1. A strong tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant development of this system for the next couple of days as it moves to the north of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development early next week while the system moves northward over the west-central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[LarryWx]

Unlike what night have been with the entity that formed north of the Leewards 3 days ago, this one would be virtually no threat to the CONUS even if it were to develop as it almost certainly would recurve well east.

[Kazmit]

So this is what I saw the models taking into Bermuda next week... I'm going to have to watch this.

[Aric Dunn]

Hmmm.. the way the convective burst is behaving is very intriguing.. It is quite possible by the first morning visible images we see a low level circ associated with that convection to the south....

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017


A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
18N52W to 09N56W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is mainly in a low
to moderate vertical shear environment and CIRA LPW show the wave
is in a region of abundant moisture at the lower levels. Middle
level diffluence and upper level divergence support numerous
strong convection from 11N-15N between 50W-53W. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere from 09N-19N between 45W-55W

[Gustywind]

Hmmm.. the way the convective burst is behaving is very intriguing.. It is quite possible by the first morning visible images we see a low level circ associated with that convection to the south....

you think that a TD could be on tape tommorow morning? Sure about that Aric?

[floridasun78]

Hmmm.. the way the convective burst is behaving is very intriguing.. It is quite possible by the first morning visible images we see a low level circ associated with that convection to the south....

you think that a TD could be on tape tommorow morning? Sure about that Aric?

look we wont not thing worry it fish storm

[norva]

Hmmm.. the way the convective burst is behaving is very intriguing.. It is quite possible by the first morning visible images we see a low level circ associated with that convection to the south....

you think that a TD could be on tape tommorow morning? Sure about that Aric?

look we wont not thing worry it fish storm

It's not a fish storm if it hits Bermuda.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017


A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 21N53W to 09N57W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is
mainly in a low to moderate vertical shear environment and TPW
imagery depicts the wave is in a region of abundant moisture. Mid-
level diffluence and upper-level divergence support scattered
moderate convection from 10N-20N between 48W-59W.

[CyclonicFury]

Now Invest 92L

[tolakram]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119330