Inverted trough over the western GOMEX/BOC

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Inverted trough over the western GOMEX/BOC

#1 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:12 pm

850mb vorticity has increased the past 6 hours. It looks like this vort moves SW or W and gets stretched but then the overall area of disturbed weather moves SE and is involved in spinning up a new vorticity NE of Puerto Rico in a few days. The GFS ensembles are showing some hits for example as well as the GFS op on the new area that spawns. A little complicated but thought a thread was warranted.

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Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#2 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:38 pm

I will be curious later to see if the EURO jumps onboard with regards to development Gatorcane. But, conditions seem to be at least marginal atm for potential development.

I tell you this pattern is locked in right now. No cold fronts in sight for at least the next 10 days. So, with HP axis forecast to be over the Western Atlantic down the road, this is something to potentially watch. I am so weary of this nightmarish hurricane season though. So ready for it to be over and done!!
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#3 Postby AJC3 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:41 pm

gatorcane wrote:850mb vorticity has increased the past 6 hours. It looks like this vort moves SW or W and gets stretched but then the overall area of disturbed weather moves SE and is involved in spinning up a new vorticity NE of Puerto Rico in a few days. The GFS ensembles are showing some hits for example as well as the GFS op on the new area that spawns. A little complicated but thought a thread was warranted.


Your post contains info on two separate systems, as what's out there now really isn't involved in the system that we'll eventually see several days down the road.

For the ones that's out there right now, as you alluded to, 850MB vort progs from all the global model guidance shows this system shearing out over the next couple days due to strong low level deformation. Probably won't see this organize any further than what has already spun up.

On the other hand, the baroclinically enhanced system that spins up in that same area up next Tuesday-Wednesday (which you are showing in your forecast maps) will probably be something to watch as it moves west, most likely as a highly sheared inverted trough. It develops in an area of strong forcing on the east side of a cutoff mid to upper level low which pinches off from the west side of the mid oceanic trough (TUTT) in about 2 days north of the Lesser Antilles, then retrogrades westward into that same area north of the GA, where the current system is, in another 36-48 hours after it cuts off.

Complicated, as you say, but the 850MB vort progs pretty clearly show these to be two separate entities. No issues as starting a thread for this is fine. I suspect though, that as we see this one fizzle and the other start to take shape farther east, we'll wind up locking this thread and starting a new one.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#4 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 07, 2017 7:02 pm

AJC3 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:850mb vorticity has increased the past 6 hours. It looks like this vort moves SW or W and gets stretched but then the overall area of disturbed weather moves SE and is involved in spinning up a new vorticity NE of Puerto Rico in a few days. The GFS ensembles are showing some hits for example as well as the GFS op on the new area that spawns. A little complicated but thought a thread was warranted.


Your post contains info on two separate systems, as what's out there now really isn't involved in the system that we'll eventually see several days down the road.

For the ones that's out there right now, as you alluded to, 850MB vort progs from all the global model guidance shows this system shearing out over the next couple days due to strong low level deformation. Probably won't see this organize any further than what has already spun up.

On the other hand, the baroclinically enhanced system that spins up in that same area up next Tuesday-Wednesday (which you are showing in your forecast maps) will probably be something to watch as it moves west, most likely as a highly sheared inverted trough. It develops in an area of strong forcing on the east side of a cutoff mid to upper level low which pinches off from the west side of the mid oceanic trough (TUTT) in about 2 days north of the Lesser Antilles, then retrogrades westward into that same area north of the GA, where the current system is, in another 36-48 hours after it cuts off.

Complicated, as you say, but the 850MB vort progs pretty clearly show these to be two separate entities. No issues as starting a thread for this is fine. I suspect though, that as we see this one fizzle and the other start to take shape farther east, we'll wind up locking this thread and starting a new one.


This second area mentioned by ajc3 has its genesis per the JMA (I know it isn't one of the more accurate models...so this is more for the record and is being mentioned only because some runs other models have recently shown a similar feature) on Tuesday between Bermuda and P. R. and hits S FL from the east as what looks like a TD next Sat AM followed by a slow move westward into the Gulf.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#5 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:01 pm

^Have there been any TCs hit FL from the Atlantic side traveling largely east to west in mid Oct or later? Actually yes though not many. But there just having been some is enough to believe something similar would have a slight chance to happen in about a week due to the persistent ridging to the north along with the model hints.

Past occurrences on record of TC hits on FL from east (not either a Caribbean or Gulf origin) mid Oct or later since 1851: 7 times or about once every 24 years on average meaning not so rare that this possibility shouldn't be considered. (Also, a few weak hits may not be on record, especially pre-1900). Here are the 7 on record:

1. 1859: TS landfall Oct 17 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

2. 1906: TD near landfall Oct 17
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

3. 1935: cat 2 H landfall Nov 4
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

4. 1941: TS indirect hit Keys Oct 17 (and later landfall W FL)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

5. 1946: TS landfall Nov 1
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

6. 1984: TD landfall Oct 26
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

7. 1985: Kate cat 2 H indirect hit Keys Nov 19 (and later landfall W FL)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#6 Postby sma10 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:35 pm

LarryWx wrote:^Have there been any TCs hit FL from the Atlantic side traveling largely east to west in mid Oct or later? Actually yes though not many. But there just having been some is enough to believe something similar would have a slight chance to happen in about a week due to the persistent ridging to the north along with the model hints.

Past occurrences on record of TC hits on FL from east (not either a Caribbean or Gulf origin) mid Oct or later since 1851: 7 times or about once every 24 years on average meaning not so rare that this possibility shouldn't be considered. (Also, a few weak hits may not be on record, especially pre-1900). Here are the 7 on record:

1. 1859: TS landfall Oct 17 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

2. 1906: TD near landfall Oct 17
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

3. 1935: cat 2 H landfall Nov 4
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

4. 1941: TS indirect hit Keys Oct 17 (and later landfall W FL)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

5. 1946: TS landfall Nov 1
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

6. 1984: TD landfall Oct 26
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

7. 1985: Kate cat 2 H indirect hit Keys Nov 19 (and later landfall W FL)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


If I'm not mistaken, #3 in the above list is referred to as the "Yankee Hurricane" due to its unusual angle of attack
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#7 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:07 am

0Z models update for area expected to form between Bermuda and Lesser Antilles around Mon night/Tue:

0Z GFS: just a very weak low or wave that teases FL early next week

0Z GEFS: most of the 20 members at least form a wave or weak low Tue. Several cross FL late week into weekend. Three become a TS and 2 of those TS hit FL, one on SE FL 10/13 and the other on NE FL on 10/15.

0Z CMC: forms a strong TS or cat 1 H that gets to near the Bahamas next weekend but then stops and never reaches FL

0Z GEPS: most of the 20 members at least form a wave or weak low Tue. Several cross FL late week into weekend
with one strong TS hitting south-central FL 10/14.

0Z Euro/EPS: no more than a wave is suggested and it is faster moving and further south than the GFS/CMC. The Euro has a very weak low or wave pass near the N coast of Cuba on 10/13.

0Z NAVGEM: a very weak low passes to the south along N coast of Cuba late week, similar to the Euro/EPS in speed and in being further south than the GFS/CMC.

In summary per 0Z model consensus: there will very likely be some kind of entity with genesis around Monday night or Tue moving westward toward FL below the unusual persistent ridging from then through late week, possibly into the weekend, and maybe even into early next week. Although the odds of an actual TC crossing FL remain low as of now, they are well above 0%. Therefore, this will likely bear watching as we get to Tuesday and beyond in this more August-like pattern. IF there were to be a TC hitting FL, the highest chance would be between 10/13 and 10/15. History shows that FL gets hit from something similar from the east about once every couple of decades on average in mid Oct or later. The last one was Kate of 1985.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#8 Postby AJC3 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:17 am

LarryWx wrote:0Z models update for area expected to form between Bermuda and Lesser Antilles around Mon night/Tue:

0Z GFS: just a very weak low or wave that teases FL early next week

0Z GEFS: most of the 20 members at least form a wave or weak low Tue. Several cross FL late week into weekend. Three become a TS and 2 of those TS hit FL, one on SE FL 10/13 and the other on NE FL on 10/15.

0Z CMC: forms a strong TS or cat 1 H that gets to near the Bahamas next weekend but then stops and never reaches FL

0Z GEPS: most of the 20 members at least form a wave or weak low Tue. Several cross FL late week into weekend
with one strong TS hitting south-central FL 10/14.

0Z Euro/EPS: no more than a wave is suggested and it is faster moving and further south than the GFS/CMC. The Euro has a very weak low or wave pass near the N coast of Cuba on 10/13.

0Z NAVGEM: a very weak low passes to the south along N coast of Cuba late week, similar to the Euro/EPS in speed and in being further south than the GFS/CMC.

In summary per 0Z model consensus: there will very likely be some kind of entity with genesis around Monday night or Tue moving westward toward FL below the unusual persistent ridging from then through late week, possibly into the weekend, and maybe even into early next week. Although the odds of an actual TC crossing FL remain low as of now, they are well above 0%. Therefore, this will likely bear watching as we get to Tuesday and beyond in this more August-like pattern. IF there were to be a TC hitting FL, the highest chance would be between 10/13 and 10/15. History shows that FL gets hit from something similar from the east about once every couple of decades on average in mid Oct or later. The last one was Kate of 1985.


As an aside, us folks here in ECFL, especially those living in the wide basin along the Saint Johns River, would root for any solution that keeps this to our south or east. Even an open T-wave moving across the area would bring us some very unwelcome rainfall. It has been quite wet here, with several multi-inch rainfall events before, including, and after Irma. There continues to be standing water all over the place, and of course, all the local SJR gauges are in moderate or major flood stage.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#9 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:14 am

^This entity, on the higher res 6Z GFS, develops Monday night and at hour 66 (Tue evening) it is already a compact 1008 mb low only 750 miles SSW of a 1023 Bermuda high. It appears to already be either a STD or a TD by then. The run doesn't show strengthening but it moves steadily westward underneath a persistent strong 500 mb high and maintains itself as a compact surface low that reaches Melbourne amidst light 200 mb winds north of a shear zone as what looks like a 1013 mb TD at hour 174 (Sunday AM 10/15).

6Z GEFS: strongest signal of any GEFS yet with almost all members forming a surface low Mon night that moves steadily WNW to W and makes it to just a few hundred miles E of the N Bahamas Wed night. Considering that the lower resolution members are in many cases then down to 1002-6 mb not much more than 1,000 miles S of a 1030 NE US surface high, a good number of these members are quite possibly at TS strength. Some of these members stall while others come into the SE US, mainly FL, between Fri and the subsequent Tue (10/13-17).

Edit: I expect this potential to start getting mentioned in the TWO by tomorrow assuming continued model support.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#10 Postby AJC3 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 10:51 am

You can see this system (red) already deforming pretty badly just east of the Bahamas along 23-28N and 68-73W. It's remnant convection (yellow) is displaced to the SE, running from about 19-24N and 62-68W (north of the Mona Passage, PR/VI and northern Leewards), in an area of strong divergent upper level wind shear. This is a pretty complicated setup, as alluded to in the original post, but I'll try to sort out what the global models are generally showing over the next few days....

A mid to upper level ridge (light peach) will strengthen over the E-SE U.S. and western north Atlantic this week. As this occurs, a piece of mid level vorticity (trough axis denoted short dashed blue line) will drop SW (blue arrow) around the ridge and merge with a very weak E-W mid level trough/shear axis already in place (long, blue dashed line). On Monday, you'll begin to see a strong mid to upper level low take shape, centered about 8 degrees north of the USVI/BVI/northern LI, along 63-65W. This low will then retrograde westward underneath the ridge to it's north. As it does, a surface inverted trough will develop along its SE flank, in an area of increasing upper level divergence. This whole mess will move then steadily westward through late week. I favor the ECM solution (00Z SFC-500MB shown below) of a broad inverted trough moving toward the Bahamas and south FL/Cuba as opposed to the GFS closed low solution, which looks like the result of grid scale convective feedback.

Image

Image
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#11 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:16 am

The 12Z GFS higher resolution has its strongest run by far so far with a 1000 mb low Tue night (hour 66 for 6Z Wed) 500 miles N of the Lesser Antilles. I'm assuming this higher res GFS run is overstrengthening it but the comparison to earlier runs is interesting nonetheless. This run is further north than the 6Z GFS and weakens it next weekend NE of the N Bahamas. Meanwhile, the often crazy/unreliable CMC has a 1004 mb TC hit on SE FL on Saturday (10/14).
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#12 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:08 pm

Thanks for the explanation of this complicated scenario AJC3. The 12Z GFS ensembles show 5 members reaching the east coast of Florida and that looks like TS strength for a couple of those members?

Image
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#13 Postby Nimbus » Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:51 pm

The upper air pattern builds the ridging back in after Nate exits however we still don't have a closed low to track yet.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#14 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:02 pm

Whatever forms will more then likely be sheared pretty badly. Some more rain for Florida
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#15 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:02 pm

gatorcane wrote:Thanks for the explanation of this complicated scenario AJC3. The 12Z GFS ensembles show 5 members reaching the east coast of Florida and that looks like TS strength for a couple of those members?

Image


Well, Gator, I'd think at a minimum that the 1001 mb low would be a TS considering the high background pressures to the north. Whereas these 5 members hit FL Fri-Sat, another 3 hit Monday for a total of 8 of 20 (40%). Folks, keep in mind that the members are run at a lower resolution than the operational.

The 12Z GEPS also hits FL with about 1/3 of its members (~7) between Fri and Sun. Next up: 12Z Euro...will it remain relatively quiet? Keep in mind that sometimes the Euro misses geneses. Remember that it was very late to the GFS party of developing the noname near the FL Keys just a few days ago. Then again, the GFS and especially the CMC often overdo geneses. So, we'll see.

Edit: Today's 12Z JMA day 6 is much weaker and further SW than yesterday's 12Z JMA day 7, which had what appeared to me to be a TD over S FL.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:54 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#16 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:17 pm

1009mb low on the 12Z Euro, a bit more than the 00Z had:

Image
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#17 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:30 pm

The 12Z EPS is pretty quiet though not quite as quiet as the 0Z EPS. I do see one sub 1004 member on this run vs none on the 0Z. But there are 50 members. So, still pretty quiet.

Edit: I think we'll already have a much better feel for this by Tue AM because that's around when a distinct surface low forms, if it forms at all, north of the Leewards.

Edit #2: The 18Z GFS has the low but it stalls just before the Bahamas followed by it weakening. Let's see what the 18Z GEFS shows. Based on the model consensus, I do think that IF the E coast of FL is going to be affected by this in a significant way it will be by about next Sunday 10/15. We'll probably know a lot more about the prospects or lack thereof within 36 hours since Mon night/Tue AM is the progged time when any significant low would form, if at all.

Edit 3: 18 GEFS a little less active with 4 members that hit FL Fri-Sun.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#18 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:20 pm

0Z GFS has a weak low hit FL from the east on Saturday.

0Z CMC has a 998 strong TS? hit SE FL from the east on Friday followed by a move into the Gulf. Then, it curls around in the Gulf sort of like Kate of 1985 and hits the FL Big Bend with a 980 mb H 10/17-8, which is similar to the 10/18 track on the 12Z CMC.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#19 Postby robbielyn » Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:24 am

LarryWx wrote:0Z GFS has a weak low hit FL from the east on Saturday.

0Z CMC has a 998 strong TS? hit SE FL from the east on Friday followed by a move into the Gulf. Then, it curls around in the Gulf sort of like Kate of 1985 and hits the FL Big Bend with a 980 mb H 10/17-8, which is similar to the 10/18 track on the 12Z CMC.

I pray this scenario doesnt happen. That week I will be at ft Myers beach on vacation.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#20 Postby joey » Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:40 am

LarryWx wrote:0Z GFS has a weak low hit FL from the east on Saturday.

0Z CMC has a 998 strong TS? hit SE FL from the east on Friday followed by a move into the Gulf. Then, it curls around in the Gulf sort of like Kate of 1985 and hits the FL Big Bend with a 980 mb H 10/17-8, which is similar to the 10/18 track on the 12Z CMC.


could this area be hilighted sometime today by the nhc ?
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