Inverted trough over the western GOMEX/BOC

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LarryWx
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#21 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:47 am

robbielyn wrote:
LarryWx wrote:0Z GFS has a weak low hit FL from the east on Saturday.

0Z CMC has a 998 strong TS? hit SE FL from the east on Friday followed by a move into the Gulf. Then, it curls around in the Gulf sort of like Kate of 1985 and hits the FL Big Bend with a 980 mb H 10/17-8, which is similar to the 10/18 track on the 12Z CMC.

I pray this scenario doesnt happen. That week I will be at ft Myers beach on vacation.


1. The odds of the CMC scenario verifying are quite low since no other model has anything like it and the CMC tends
to overdo TCs. However, it isn't impossible of course.

2. Though mainly just weak lows, the 0Z GEFS has the most members yet of any GEFS run both reach FL and pass into the Gulf. A couple even make it to LA but weak.

3. The 0Z GEPS is much more active than the prior run with a good number of TS hits on S FL Fri-Sun and a good number of those then going into the Gulf. 3 members then hit LA as a TS or H 10/15-7.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#22 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:50 am

joey wrote:
LarryWx wrote:0Z GFS has a weak low hit FL from the east on Saturday.

0Z CMC has a 998 strong TS? hit SE FL from the east on Friday followed by a move into the Gulf. Then, it curls around in the Gulf sort of like Kate of 1985 and hits the FL Big Bend with a 980 mb H 10/17-8, which is similar to the 10/18 track on the 12Z CMC.


could this area be hilighted sometime today by the nhc ?


Yes, indeed, I suspect there will be a yellow x by Mon night, but having very little Euro support would likely make NHC think about it. Let's see what the Euro does here at 0Z.

Edit: Once again, only weak support by the Euro. I assume that this is due to the shear the model is showing. The Euro is the most respected model but it does sometimes miss geneses, like the Gulf noname of the last few days. The GFS was way better/earlier on showing a noname surface low to form. The Euro didn't finally have it til almost the last minute.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#23 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:21 am

There is a surface trough near around 27 degrees Latitude and 68 degrees Longitude, which is evident on satellite imagery. It appears as if there is a mid level spin occuring atm and convection is actually beginning to increase in this region.

As the remnants of Nate continues to exit from the scene in the Northeast U.S. the next 36 hours, HP axis will continue to build back in over the Western Atlantic the next few days. This should allow whatever tries to spin-up here in this area to move westward as time progresses.

I think this indeed may be an area to focus on later this week, given the support from GFS and CMC. The EURO is very slow to jump onboard currently, but as pointed out by you Larry, the EURO did not do too well in analyzing the no name system in the Florida Straits last week.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#24 Postby AJC3 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 3:13 am

The lead system talked about in the OP is essentially dead in the water along the eastern side of the Bahama chain.The big player leading to the second spinup is the developing mid/upper low near 27.5N 62.5W and dropping southwestward. You can already see convection blowing up in the strong ascent immediately to its east. Once the parent mid-upper low reaches a position north of Hispanola/PR by late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, you'll see a second inverted trough start to develop roughly in the same area as (or perhaps a little east of) where the lead inverted surface trough was on Saturday.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... natl5.html
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#25 Postby AJC3 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 4:12 am

Since this discussion has pretty much gravitated toward the second system that will start developing in another 36-48 hours (and since there's some residual troughing near the GA), it's probably best to just leave this thread alone and discuss the upcoming system here.

Carry on...
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#26 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Oct 09, 2017 4:27 am

Thanks AJC3. I really just took note if this area this morning after being away the past couple of days, and. l am catching up on things. Great analysis.from you this morning. Appreciate that. Yeah, we will keep a watch as the week progresses.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#27 Postby Steve H. » Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:42 am

Seems to be a surface reflection on the west side of the convection, Some shear still evident, but it has slackened quite a bit since yesterday. Let's see how it plays out today.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Puerto Rico

#28 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:31 am

I am often amazed how models can sort out these complex situations. A few days ago, you would have no idea a possible surface low could form without having models to run the complex equations of thermodynamics and yet here we are with a chance at some weak low or even weak development possible.

Updated title of thread to better reflect the area of interest.

Image
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#29 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:54 am

thread title is still misleading. The system that develops is not the disturbed weather not of the islands. Looking at the vorticity, it is the tropical wave along 57W. Visible imagery shows a broad LLC associated with that wave
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#30 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:55 am

This system will at least keep the wet pattern going here in FL, part of the +NAO and -PNA helping the summer pattern stay in place.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#31 Postby AJC3 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:03 am

Alyono wrote:thread title is still misleading. The system that develops is not the disturbed weather not of the islands. Looking at the vorticity, it is the tropical wave along 57W. Visible imagery shows a broad LLC associated with that wave


Going to have to completely disagree with you here. The system develops in situ on the east side of the mid/upper low without a significant contribution from anything to its east or southeast. This has been clear from the H85 vorticity progs for several days now.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#32 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:05 am

NDG wrote:This system will at least keep the wet pattern going here in FL, part of the +NAO and -PNA helping the summer pattern stay in place.

Can't EVER remember a time where dew points were in the mid-upper 70's to near 80 in early October here in SE Florida, feels like the middle of summer still!
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#33 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:09 am

AJC3 wrote:
Alyono wrote:thread title is still misleading. The system that develops is not the disturbed weather not of the islands. Looking at the vorticity, it is the tropical wave along 57W. Visible imagery shows a broad LLC associated with that wave


Going to have to completely disagree with you here. The system develops in situ on the east side of the mid/upper low without a significant contribution from anything to its east or southeast. This has been clear from the H85 vorticity progs for several days now.


On tidbits, it looks like the incipient vorticity starts with the northern part of the wave near 18.5/59, a bit north of the broad LLC I was mentioning earlier. This from the GFS/CMC fields. Perhaps that is not directly due to the wave though
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#34 Postby AJC3 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:21 am

Alyono wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
Alyono wrote:thread title is still misleading. The system that develops is not the disturbed weather not of the islands. Looking at the vorticity, it is the tropical wave along 57W. Visible imagery shows a broad LLC associated with that wave


Going to have to completely disagree with you here. The system develops in situ on the east side of the mid/upper low without a significant contribution from anything to its east or southeast. This has been clear from the H85 vorticity progs for several days now.


On tidbits, it looks like the incipient vorticity starts with the northern part of the wave near 18.5/59, a bit north of the broad LLC I was mentioning earlier. This from the GFS/CMC fields. Perhaps that is not directly due to the wave though


There could be a bit of streamer from the northern flank of that wave, but it looks minimal to me in the high res GRIB data. The primary mechanism I see is the strong baroclinic forcing that lowers pressures and produces a broad vort packet between about 18-25N and 60-68W starting toward 00Z.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#35 Postby AJC3 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:39 am

Alyono wrote: This from the GFS/CMC fields. Perhaps that is not directly due to the wave though


I took another look at the high-res 06Z GFS 850 wind/vort, and there's a blowup/bullseye that pops up just north of 20N60W between 21Z and 00Z that looks very feedback-ish. This is what the GFS has kept wanting to spinup into a LLC for the last several runs.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#36 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:09 am

AJC3 wrote:
Alyono wrote: This from the GFS/CMC fields. Perhaps that is not directly due to the wave though


I took another look at the high-res 06Z GFS 850 wind/vort, and there's a blowup/bullseye that pops up just north of 20N60W between 21Z and 00Z that looks very feedback-ish. This is what the GFS has kept wanting to spinup into a LLC for the last several runs.


does look like feedback. The CP scheme needs a revamp as it has had severe issues with feedback ever since the upgrade
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#37 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:11 am

The 12Z GFS continues a recent string of GFS runs that looks weaker with each run. It has gone toward the Euro instead of the Euro going toward the GFS.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#38 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:14 pm

The 12Z Euro continues its streak of runs with no more than a wave or very weak low. Based on this and the GFS runs getting less and less enthusiastic, it wouldn't surprise me if the NHC doesn't ever designate this potential with a yellow x (though there is always the 0% chance of development yellow x option I believe). I did hear that yellow x's are in short supply and thus the price being high due to such heavy usage this season. :lol:
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#39 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:28 pm

Alyono wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
Alyono wrote: This from the GFS/CMC fields. Perhaps that is not directly due to the wave though


I took another look at the high-res 06Z GFS 850 wind/vort, and there's a blowup/bullseye that pops up just north of 20N60W between 21Z and 00Z that looks very feedback-ish. This is what the GFS has kept wanting to spinup into a LLC for the last several runs.


does look like feedback. The CP scheme needs a revamp as it has had severe issues with feedback ever since the upgrade


The ECM 12z does appear to bring a vort out of the wave near 57W, hugs the greater Antilles and through the Straits. Has a large closed off low temporarily between Cuba and the Bahamas @72 hrs.
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#40 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:32 pm

^Interesting take. Well, it is starting to get late. So, it wouldn't be shocking.

Even the 12Z Navgem and JMA have only a wave or very weak low. I should also add that the 12Z GEFS is the quietest of any of the last few days. Also, the 12Z EPS has nothing noteworthy. Only the very unreliable and often way too aggressive CMC has something of note at 12Z, a 1005 mb TD or TS hit on the southern tip of FL on Fri night. This is like the 4th run in a row of a TC hit on S FL but it is the CMC (along with its ensembles being that several of its members still hit S FL with a TC) against the rest of the model world at 12Z today.

Should this get a yellow x? Any opinions?
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