robbielyn wrote:LarryWx wrote:0Z GFS has a weak low hit FL from the east on Saturday.
0Z CMC has a 998 strong TS? hit SE FL from the east on Friday followed by a move into the Gulf. Then, it curls around in the Gulf sort of like Kate of 1985 and hits the FL Big Bend with a 980 mb H 10/17-8, which is similar to the 10/18 track on the 12Z CMC.
I pray this scenario doesnt happen. That week I will be at ft Myers beach on vacation.
1. The odds of the CMC scenario verifying are quite low since no other model has anything like it and the CMC tends
to overdo TCs. However, it isn't impossible of course.
2. Though mainly just weak lows, the 0Z GEFS has the most members yet of any GEFS run both reach FL and pass into the Gulf. A couple even make it to LA but weak.
3. The 0Z GEPS is much more active than the prior run with a good number of TS hits on S FL Fri-Sun and a good number of those then going into the Gulf. 3 members then hit LA as a TS or H 10/15-7.