Inverted trough over the western GOMEX/BOC

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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#41 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:36 pm

LarryWx wrote:^Interesting take. Well, it is starting to get late. So, it wouldn't be shocking.

Even the 12Z Navgem and JMA have only a wave or very weak low. I should also add that the 12Z GEFS is the quietest of any of the last few days. Also, the 12Z EPS has nothing noteworthy. Only the very unreliable and often way too aggressive CMC has something of note at 12Z, a 1005 mb TD or TS hit on the southern tip of FL on Fri night. This is like the 4th run in a row of a TC hit on S FL but it is the CMC (along with its ensembles being that several of its members still hit S FL with a TC) against the rest of the model world at 12Z today.

Should this get a yellow x? Any opinions?


Not right now. They should wait and first see if anything even attempts organizing.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#42 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:52 pm

LarryWx wrote:^Interesting take. Well, it is starting to get late. So, it wouldn't be shocking.

Even the 12Z Navgem and JMA have only a wave or very weak low. I should also add that the 12Z GEFS is the quietest of any of the last few days. Also, the 12Z EPS has nothing noteworthy. Only the very unreliable and often way too aggressive CMC has something of note at 12Z, a 1005 mb TD or TS hit on the southern tip of FL on Fri night. This is like the 4th run in a row of a TC hit on S FL but it is the CMC (along with its ensembles being that several of its members still hit S FL with a TC) against the rest of the model world at 12Z today.

Should this get a yellow x? Any opinions?


All i can see is crazy wind shear keeping this from anything more then another wet distubance for FL if it even makes that far west.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#43 Postby StormTracker » Mon Oct 09, 2017 3:16 pm

LarryWx wrote:^Interesting take. Well, it is starting to get late. So, it wouldn't be shocking.

Even the 12Z Navgem and JMA have only a wave or very weak low. I should also add that the 12Z GEFS is the quietest of any of the last few days. Also, the 12Z EPS has nothing noteworthy. Only the very unreliable and often way too aggressive CMC has something of note at 12Z, a 1005 mb TD or TS hit on the southern tip of FL on Fri night. This is like the 4th run in a row of a TC hit on S FL but it is the CMC (along with its ensembles being that several of its members still hit S FL with a TC) against the rest of the model world at 12Z today.

Should this get a yellow x? Any opinions?

I can't remember a time when the NHC ever pulled the trigger based solely on the CMC. It's been over exaggerative than most models on most systems in their early stages all season. They either go with the GFS or the ECMWF, or a blend of the two usually. I'm pretty sure they'll wait until they have more conclusive evidence from the other models before it gets the yellow x...ST
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#44 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:08 am

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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#45 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:56 am

Per the 0Z/6Z guidance, it is clear that the GFS/GEFS has completely caved to the always relatively quiet Euro/EPS on this feature. The 6Z GEFS has virtually no member develop this. I'd now be quite surprised if there is tropical development with this as only the CMC does much of anything with it and the CMC doesn't seem to know that strong shear is not conducive toward tropical development.

I'd say no yellow x is necessary based on model trends but that will depend on what this looks like on satellite pics later today. If the NHC were to do anything, they most likely would have a yellow x with 0-10% chance unless there's a surprise on satellite loops today. Back when the GFS was developing this, it had been doing so by about this morning.

Any other opinions?
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#46 Postby Steve H. » Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:50 am

I don't think the NHC is going to do anything, might mention it in the discussion, but this is real time observance right now. If shear doesn't get too strong it may well have a chance.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#47 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:05 am

Wilma formed from a convection bank like this in October...However, this one looks too sheared, too weak, and too far NE into the Atlantic...But who knows?



While the big weak wave in the middle Atlantic might be too weak now its remnants might congeal further west in the Caribbean...
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#48 Postby otowntiger » Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:54 pm

Sanibel wrote:Wilma formed from a convection bank like this in October...However, this one looks too sheared, too weak, and too far NE into the Atlantic...But who knows?



While the big weak wave in the middle Atlantic might be too weak now its remnants might congeal further west in the Caribbean...
As bad as it was, it certainly looks the season could be coming to an early end, based on the lack of model support for anything the rest of this month. The synoptic pattern is very mid summer like with the Bermuda high as strong as ever and shear galore. Way above avg temps for the eastern 1/3 or at least SE US with a strong protective ridge. Good news unless you hate the heat in the fall, which I'm no fan of.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#49 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:14 pm

Models no longer develop this, but just checking it out in real time on satellite, I have seen disturbances look more lame than this and still develop. Granted, upper level winds are not favorable, so it probably won't develop, but I think some weak development may still be possible. Some hybrid late season storms are less affected by shear, since they develop in conjunction with upper level lows.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#50 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:33 pm

Yeah although development is unlikely atm, NEVER completely rule out these Upper Level Lows spinning down to the surface. It is not common for them to do so, but there have been rare cases of this happening, most notably 2 years ago in the vicinity of the Bahamas with the development of Joaquin, which he became a major tropical cyclone.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#51 Postby Steve H. » Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:52 pm

Though none of the models are showing development, I'm keeping an eye on it. The Euro did show some vorticity, and the system seems to have a circulation and convection - if not tropical perhaps sub-tropical. Interesting feature still.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#52 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:31 pm

Evening,

I know only the CMC is really showing much, but I do see storms starting to pull into the COC. May be a small chance
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#53 Postby joey » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:50 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Evening,

I know only the CMC is really showing much, but I do see storms starting to pull into the COC. May be a small chance


Is this trying to work down to the surface ty
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#54 Postby boca » Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:50 pm

It looks like this ULL is working it's way down to the surface because their is convection developing near the center.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#55 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:00 am

Low north of Hispaniola moving towards Florida has worked it's way down to 850 mb. Convergence is favorable, divergence marginal, shear 0-15 knots, shear tendency: decreasing shear around. It's a ULL working its way down as revealed by looking at 200 mb, 500 mb, 700 mb, and 850 mb levels. It will kick up the winds across Florida. The big question- does it become a tropical or subtropical cyclone. That remains to be seen. There's still so much shear around it that it makes the forecast uncertain, but impacts will be similar regardless. Breezy with scattered rain bands across FL this weekend. It's also moving west at a pretty good clip, limiting the window of time it has to work all the way down to the surface. Nevertheless, it has worked all the way down to 850 mb, so it's worth watching.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... 8&prod=vor
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#56 Postby joey » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:14 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Low north of Hispaniola moving towards Florida has worked it's way down to 850 mb. Convergence is favorable, divergence marginal, shear 0-15 knots, shear tendency: decreasing shear around. It's a ULL working its way down as revealed by looking at 200 mb, 500 mb, 700 mb, and 850 mb levels. It will kick up the winds across Florida. The big question- does it become a tropical or subtropical cyclone. That remains to be seen. There's still so much shear around it that it makes the forecast uncertain, but impacts will be similar regardless. Breezy with scattered rain bands across FL this weekend. It's also moving west at a pretty good clip, limiting the window of time it has to work all the way down to the surface. Nevertheless, it has worked all the way down to 850 mb, so it's worth watching.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... 8&prod=vor


maybe the nhc will give it yellow x today :larrow:
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#57 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:28 am

It looks like no one is mentioning about anticyclone near it...
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#58 Postby AJC3 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:59 am

SuperMarioBros99thx wrote:It looks like no one is mentioning about anticyclone near it...


It's underneath a mid to upper level low (cyclone), not an anticyclone.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#59 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:15 am

It appears to have lost much of the rotation it had last night, so when it crosses FLA maybe nothing but some rain and a few wind gust,
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of PR/Leewards

#60 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:21 pm

It doesn’t look as well defined as earlier. Not gonna develop I don’t think. Will increase rain chances across FL Friday tho.
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