Disturbed weather in western Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

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Hurricaneman
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Disturbed weather in western Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

#1 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:31 am

Looks quite good on satellite right now and most of the models develop something and looking at the steering Cuba, Central America and possibly Florida should keep a close eye on this
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#2 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:34 am

GFS may be mishandling the situation beyond 5-7 days. Seems though per the latest GFS and Euro that chances this moves inland through Central America and the Yucatán are increasing.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#3 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:56 am

TheStormExpert wrote:GFS may be mishandling the situation beyond 5-7 days. Seems though per the latest GFS and Euro that chances this moves inland through Central America and the Yucatán are increasing.

It was just one Euro run, will be interesting to see the 12z to see if it was just one run or a trend.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#4 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:58 am

Looks a little more formidable into Southern Florida on the 12Z GFS run, 180 hours below:

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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#5 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:02 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:GFS may be mishandling the situation beyond 5-7 days. Seems though per the latest GFS and Euro that chances this moves inland through Central America and the Yucatán are increasing.

It was just one Euro run, will be interesting to see the 12z to see if it was just one run or a trend.

That’s what I’m waiting to see. The 12z Euro will prove if it was an off run or not.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#6 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:04 pm

The GFS has been showing the “small” Florida storm/low merging with a front for the past few days, nothing new here only it looks more organized on the 12Z run (slightly less shear)
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#7 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:23 pm

The 12Z GFS ensembles are noticeably more bullish and more realistic on the possible scenario here (finally). Many ensembles develop a low in the SW Caribbean around hour 90 move it NW just through or just offshore NE Nicaragua/Honduras into the NW Caribbean west of Yucatan then turn it NE through Cuba and passing south of Florida.192hour position below (though 3 ensembles impact South Florida)

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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#8 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:33 pm

The area to watch will be the SW Caribbean around 4-5 days from now. The convection in the Western Caribbean now will likely move into Central America/Yucatan with no development. Thinking NHC will be circling the potential SW Caribbean area in the next day or two. We may just end up using this thread anyway as something looks likely to develop here eventually.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#9 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:45 pm

12z NAVGEM has a strong TS hit on South Florida

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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#10 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:51 pm

CMC shifted east and now in Bahamas but still showing development:

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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#11 Postby sunnyday » Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:59 pm

South Fl says no thank you ! :double:
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#12 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:00 pm

Really can't beat the outflow.

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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#13 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:18 pm

Light north winds reported on the coast Puerto Cabezas, Nicaruaga.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#14 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:28 pm

12Z JMA much more bullish:

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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#15 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:30 pm

12Z CMC ensembles more bullish:

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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#16 Postby Nimbus » Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:31 pm

Still not quite invest worthy apparently.
Models said next week but in the same area as the current convection?
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#17 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:44 pm

12Z Euro now has a broad low in the Western Caribbean closer to the other models but slower and not as far north. Surprised it doesn’t develop it more. Only model that has this moving into Central America now is the GFS which is an outlier.

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Re:Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#18 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:57 pm

The Caribbean system is back on the 12z Euro

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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#19 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:20 pm

Is a good looking wave:
A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 20N80W to 09N79W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region
of low to moderate vertical wind shear. However, deep layer
moisture along with upper level divergence support scattered
heavy showers and tstms from 13N-20N between 75W-86W.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#20 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:29 pm

system should be MUCH stronger than the EC indicates since the EPAC cyclone is likely a convective feedback phantom
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