Disturbed weather in western Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

[WeatherEmperor]

system should be MUCH stronger than the EC indicates since the EPAC cyclone is likely a convective feedback phantom

I know it is super early but what percent chance do you give this to affect South Florida?


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[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET:

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM:

[gatorcane]

All global models now onboard with developing this in the Western Caribbean though the GFS takes the longest to develop since it moves it into Central America for a few days and is now an outlier. Shouldn’t be too long now until NHC lemons the area.

[jlauderdal]

system should be MUCH stronger than the EC indicates since the EPAC cyclone is likely a convective feedback phantom

I know it is super early but what percent chance do you give this to affect South Florida?

40


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[GCANE]

Very obvious sustained convection firing right over an area of surface convergence.
Strong easterly surface winds, to the east of the convection, piling up against nearly stationary winds to the west of the convection.

[GCANE]

High level of TPW

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[Alyono]

system should be MUCH stronger than the EC indicates since the EPAC cyclone is likely a convective feedback phantom

I know it is super early but what percent chance do you give this to affect South Florida?


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15 right now. Still favoring a doodling system that eventually goes over Cuba.

Starting to get worried about another round of deadly flooding over Central America. As this doodles, we could see Nate-like rains

[SFLcane]

15% lol...bring on that cold front.

[Newbie]

What percent chance do you give it of going over Nassau in The Bahamas? When can you usually predict that?

[Alyono]

GFS still says no cyclone

I'll take the NAVGEM over this

[gatorcane]

GFS still says no cyclone

I'll take the NAVGEM over this

The GFS OP seems lost. But the GFS ensembles may be closer to reality:

[Alyono]

The operational GFS reminds me of Ralph Wiggum

[Nimbus]

Sunset frames show the convection bubbling up to the east of where the low level clouds are diving south. So maybe some shear hindering development today?

[MahFL]

Something is down there :

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM moving north and slightly faster than 12Z run:

[WeatherEmperor]

18z NAVGEM has a strong TS moving NE towards Cuba/South Florida




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[Ken711]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM 168 hours:

[AutoPenalti]

18Z NAVGEM 168 hours:

Ouch.