Disturbed weather in western Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

[AutoPenalti]

Here is a saved loop of the 00z Euro with a Major Hurricane Philippe in the Northwestern Caribbean on Halloween. Has it heading NE towards the western tip of Cuba on Nov. 1st.

It ain’t fantasy but it does look like it.

[TheStormExpert]

00z UKMET on board with a Hurricane Philippe. Misses Florida to the SE, Cuba and the Bahamas not so lucky.

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneCity/status/922087307703980032

[gatorcane]

Long-range models suggest some kind of NE turn in the NW Caribbean and most are south of Florida when it moves NE. That fits pretty well with climo but it is long-range and subject to large errors.

[AdamFirst]

Long-range models suggest some kind of NE turn in the NW Caribbean and most are south of Florida when it moves NE. That fits pretty well with climo but it is long-range and subject to large errors.

Yep. All depends on how far along north and west the storm is before it gets sucked up by the approaching front.

[Emmett_Brown]

Big timing differences between Euro and UKMet. At 168 hours, Euro has the low in the NW Caribbean just north of Honduras, which the UKmet has it in the Bahamas.

[gatorcane]

CMC shifts west and hits SE Florida at 132 hours. The GFS is finally picking up on the system and moves it ENE south of Florida

[AdamFirst]

GFS continuing to suffer through issues. Develops two identical systems with identical tracks in the Caribbean and EPAC.

[LarryWx]

Big timing differences between Euro and UKMet. At 168 hours, Euro has the low in the NW Caribbean just north of Honduras, which the UKmet has it in the Bahamas.

I wonder if the 0Z Euro and Ukmet are developing different systems in the W Caribbean being that the timing is so far apart. Any opinions?

[CyclonicFury]

12Z UKMET
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.7N 83.3W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 26.10.2017 15.7N 83.3W WEAK

00UTC 27.10.2017 16.5N 82.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.10.2017 18.3N 80.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 28.10.2017 20.9N 80.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 28.10.2017 23.7N 78.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[SFLcane]

Ok I think it’s time for an nhc mention possibly at 2pm or possibly tonight. We shall see

[LarryWx]

So, the 12Z UKmet is similar to the 0Z version and moves NE SE of S FL.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC shifts west:

[Shell Mound]

Here is a saved loop of the 00z Euro with a Major Hurricane Philippe in the Northwestern Caribbean on Halloween. Has it heading NE towards the western tip of Cuba on Nov. 1st.

https://gifyu.com/images/ecmwf_mslpa_watl_fh72-240.gif

The time frame has significantly moved forward. Now the ECMWF and the EPS mean develop a closed depression over the southern Caribbean by day five (ninety-six hours). That would indicate genesis by 00Z/26 October. So the prospects of development have now increased substantially vs. previous days, given good consensus between the operational ECMWF and the EPS mean. The GEFS is also onboard, though solutions vary. Consensus and conditions suggest a potential hurricane threatening Cuba and the Bahamas while brushing or remaining offshore of the Keys and South Florida. A fairly typical setup for late October and early November it is...think Fox (1952) or Michelle (2001). We could easily see a similarly compact, rapidly intensifying, major hurricane that turns northeastward into Cuba and the Bahamas while missing the U.S. mainland. I would be concerned and prepared if I were in those areas, as the season is still ongoing, especially with La Niña emergent.

[Frank2]

I like the GFS solution, at least for South Florida. But if it heads this way and does pass over here, I'll leave and never return. Enough is enough and I'm too old for the roller-coaster ride each season. Hoping for a strong front, per the models...

[gatorcane]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Slow development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[tolakram]

This thread already existed, merged with the new one.

[tolakram]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Slow development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[blp]

So the Euro looks to be the slowest now. Lets see what happens shortly...

I wish the GFS would be a little more helpful at this point. Cant really trust anything it is showing until it gets the cyclogensis right.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z NAVGEM




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[joey]

12z NAVGEM




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hi how strong is that euro showing a major down there thanks