gatorcane wrote:LarryWx wrote:Everyone's favorite GEFS run, the Happy Hour version, has 4 members of 20 form a TS+
that passes SE of S FL 10/29-30. But it also has 3 TCs that hit S FL/Keys 10/31-11/1. Perhaps this suggests that a slower moving TC would ultimately be a greater threat to S FL? Any opinions?
Hmmm yeah saw that, slower might allow enough ridging to build back to get this close to South Florida. NAVGEM looks to have shifted more west and is slower. Looks to be moving ENE at the end:
I agree with both of you.
I see more ensembles members in 18z staying longer in the Carribean. They delay in IMO would allow a block of the ENE motion and direct to a more N or NNE which could bring Florida into play
Shell Mound made an excellent post in Global Model Thread which I am quoting below:
Shell Mound wrote:sunnyday wrote:If the Euro track moves west, will So Fl be in line for a hit by the storm?
One thing that concerns me is that the 12Z EPS (ensemble) mean has trended toward a more amplified mid- to upper-level pattern in the long range range, that is, days six and beyond. The latest mean shows a more pronounced trend toward a negative NAO, with attendant height rises over Greenland. This strengthens the western-Atlantic (subtropical) high at the mid levels and also deepens the trough over the north-central United States. Additionally, this process induces greater divergence over the western Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico, allowing a strong jet-exit outflow channel to develop. The trend toward a negatively tilted, northwest-to-southeast, longwave trough axis over central North America means the mid-level flow (wind vectoring) becomes more meridional, south-to-north, rather than zonal, west-to-east. This amplification would allow not only more conducive conditions over the Caribbean, but also produce a track farther northwest, and also enable the potential system to strengthen or maintain its intensity longer even as it curves into the westerlies. In other words, the setup becomes more of a Wilma- (2005) than a Michelle-type one. Conditions are going to be conducive to strengthening, so the EPS and the operational ECMWF are likely underestimating the intensity of this potential system.