Disturbed weather in western Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

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blp
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#101 Postby blp » Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:19 pm

gatorcane wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Everyone's favorite GEFS run, the Happy Hour version, has 4 members of 20 form a TS+
that passes SE of S FL 10/29-30. But it also has 3 TCs that hit S FL/Keys 10/31-11/1. Perhaps this suggests that a slower moving TC would ultimately be a greater threat to S FL? Any opinions?


Hmmm yeah saw that, slower might allow enough ridging to build back to get this close to South Florida. NAVGEM looks to have shifted more west and is slower. Looks to be moving ENE at the end:

[img]https://s1.postimg.org/5graj6xffj/nvg10.sfc10m.180.go_mex.gif[/]


I agree with both of you.

I see more ensembles members in 18z staying longer in the Carribean. They delay in IMO would allow a block of the ENE motion and direct to a more N or NNE which could bring Florida into play

Shell Mound made an excellent post in Global Model Thread which I am quoting below:

Shell Mound wrote:
sunnyday wrote:If the Euro track moves west, will So Fl be in line for a hit by the storm?

One thing that concerns me is that the 12Z EPS (ensemble) mean has trended toward a more amplified mid- to upper-level pattern in the long range range, that is, days six and beyond. The latest mean shows a more pronounced trend toward a negative NAO, with attendant height rises over Greenland. This strengthens the western-Atlantic (subtropical) high at the mid levels and also deepens the trough over the north-central United States. Additionally, this process induces greater divergence over the western Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico, allowing a strong jet-exit outflow channel to develop. The trend toward a negatively tilted, northwest-to-southeast, longwave trough axis over central North America means the mid-level flow (wind vectoring) becomes more meridional, south-to-north, rather than zonal, west-to-east. This amplification would allow not only more conducive conditions over the Caribbean, but also produce a track farther northwest, and also enable the potential system to strengthen or maintain its intensity longer even as it curves into the westerlies. In other words, the setup becomes more of a Wilma- (2005) than a Michelle-type one. Conditions are going to be conducive to strengthening, so the EPS and the operational ECMWF are likely underestimating the intensity of this potential system.

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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#102 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:26 pm

wouldn't be surprised to see this doodle in the Caribbean for more than a week
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#103 Postby blp » Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:38 pm

Alyono wrote:wouldn't be surprised to see this doodle in the Caribbean for more than a week


You have mentioned that several times before and it had stayed stuck in my head. Maybe the models are to fast with the exit. So you are leaning toward the high being more amplified to block the exit out?
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#104 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:46 pm

The 12Z JMA suggests doodling as the trough looks to miss it:

Image
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#105 Postby Frank2 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:47 pm

Late season systems can do anything:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_Atla ... cane_Henri
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#106 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:47 pm

Ukmet is not quite done with cane's for the season either.

Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#107 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:42 pm

18z Navgem & CMC shifted W and CMC brushes SFL...
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#108 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Oct 22, 2017 11:13 pm

Blown Away wrote:18z Navgem & CMC shifted W and CMC brushes SFL...


0z Canadian shifts east and no longer brushes Florida

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#109 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 22, 2017 11:18 pm

WTNT82 EGRR 230405

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 23.10.2017

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.8N 82.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.10.2017 96 15.8N 82.0W 1002 39
1200UTC 27.10.2017 108 17.0N 80.6W 999 45
0000UTC 28.10.2017 120 20.2N 79.2W 995 41
1200UTC 28.10.2017 132 23.4N 77.6W 987 56
0000UTC 29.10.2017 144 27.3N 74.8W 972 70
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#110 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 22, 2017 11:40 pm

:uarrow: So, the Ukmet has about the same track E of FL for the 3rd run in a row.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#111 Postby AJC3 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 11:49 pm

Folks, let's try and avoid making definitive statements or asking about outcomes being set in stone 5-6 days out.

Yes, certain outcomes are often decidedly more likely, especially this time of year. However, exchanges have often gotten testy in the past when the inherent uncertainty, no matter how small, isn't considered. Thanks.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#112 Postby joey » Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:56 am

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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#113 Postby Steve H. » Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:05 am

Quote out of Melbourne Florida NWS Monday morning:


Thursday-Sunday...aloft upper troughing continues to push eastward
away from the peninsula as brief shortwave ridging moves across the
state and northerly winds quickly back to southwesterly ahead of an
approaching upper trough to the west for Fri into the weekend. At
the surface weak high pressure builds across the region on Thu, then
off of the Atlantic Seaboard late Fri into Sat with the approach of
a tropical low from the south. Presently, the European model (ecmwf) lifts this
feature into the Florida Straits by late Sat, northeast across Southeast
Florida Sat night, and further northeastward away from the peninsula on
sun, swept away by an approaching front/upper trough combo. Model
consistence and timing of surface/upper features will play a key
role going forward with exact track/strength of this system.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#114 Postby toad strangler » Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:33 am

6z GFS shows virtually nothing.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#115 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:55 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Slow development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves northwestward to
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#116 Postby Steve H. » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:03 am

Thanks for posting. I see orange on the map now.....or is that yellow?
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#117 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:16 am

Orange, 40% in 5 days.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Slow development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves northwestward to
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Pasch
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#118 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:24 am

More GFS ensembles hit Florida:

Image
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#119 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:37 am

Steve H. wrote:Thanks for posting. I see orange on the map now.....or is that yellow?
mandarin alert
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#120 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:44 am

Euro and GFS indicate very strong wind shear from Cuba north through FL and the Bahamas by Friday - ahead of a strong cold front. 60-80 kt WSW winds aloft across the central to southern FL Peninsula by Saturday morning (and increasing from there). Would be hard for anything other than a weak and highly-sheared storm to form or move into that area.
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