Disturbed weather in western Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

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blp
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#121 Postby blp » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:58 am

I can't understand why the GFS continues to develop the now Tropical Storm in the EPAC in 96hrs. It is not even a microcane anymore. Makes the model completely useless to figure out what will happen here with Carribean system.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#122 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:10 am

blp wrote:I can't understand why the GFS continues to develop the now Tropical Storm in the EPAC in 96hrs. It is not even a microcane anymore. Makes the model completely useless to figure out what will happen here with Carribean system.
you have been on this board a long time...its the gfs. expect odd solutions and even solutions that are impossible based on the setup...gfs could be correct in this case, highly unlikely....checkout 57's shear post, unlikely this thing gets to florida as anything that would require preps other than an umbrella
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#123 Postby toad strangler » Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:10 am

wxman57 wrote:Euro and GFS indicate very strong wind shear from Cuba north through FL and the Bahamas by Friday - ahead of a strong cold front. 60-80 kt WSW winds aloft across the central to southern FL Peninsula by Saturday morning (and increasing from there). Would be hard for anything other than a weak and highly-sheared storm to form or move into that area.


Man that's a great point. I haven't even looked at shear. That is some persistent strong shear over and just S of FL from basically right now right through the time period in question.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#124 Postby CourierPR » Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:15 am

Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 14h14 hours ago
More
sw Caribbean will be place to watch later this week,
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html
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This was posted by Met. Joe Bastardi 14 hours ago.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#125 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:51 am

jlauderdal wrote:
blp wrote:I can't understand why the GFS continues to develop the now Tropical Storm in the EPAC in 96hrs. It is not even a microcane anymore. Makes the model completely useless to figure out what will happen here with Carribean system.
you have been on this board a long time...its the gfs. expect odd solutions and even solutions that are impossible based on the setup...gfs could be correct in this case, highly unlikely....checkout 57's shear post, unlikely this thing gets to florida as anything that would require preps other than an umbrella


Wilma was supposed to be battling shear from the approaching front also, instead the front help aid her outflow. I know model forecasts are better now then in 2005 but you never know.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#126 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:58 am

wxman57 wrote:Euro and GFS indicate very strong wind shear from Cuba north through FL and the Bahamas by Friday - ahead of a strong cold front. 60-80 kt WSW winds aloft across the central to southern FL Peninsula by Saturday morning (and increasing from there). Would be hard for anything other than a weak and highly-sheared storm to form or move into that area.

In other words no hurricane like yesterdays 00z Euro showed.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#127 Postby toad strangler » Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:30 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Euro and GFS indicate very strong wind shear from Cuba north through FL and the Bahamas by Friday - ahead of a strong cold front. 60-80 kt WSW winds aloft across the central to southern FL Peninsula by Saturday morning (and increasing from there). Would be hard for anything other than a weak and highly-sheared storm to form or move into that area.

In other words no hurricane like yesterdays 00z Euro showed.


It's all been down hill since then if that's what you are looking for yes. Of course, intensity is not a sure thing so must keep an eye on ..... even with all that shear forecast.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#128 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:33 am

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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#129 Postby Frank2 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:05 am

Even with Dr. Master's explanation, it doesn't sound very convincing. As posted earlier, the high shear is really going to be the issue - 60-80 (or even 100) kts of shear is as strong as it gets in South Florida...
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#130 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:31 am

The biggest shift since yesterday is that the ECMWF and its ensembles have trended toward a much stronger, "sharper," initial trough axis that crosses Florida and the western Caribbean by day four (00Z/26 October). This brings stronger westerlies farther south into the Caribbean and affords less time for the potential system to deepen before the next trough arrives three days later. By that time, although wind vectors become more conducive to strengthening, the system will already be disheveled due to the effects of earlier shear from the preceding trough, and hence struggle to consolidate its broad circulation. This means that the risk of a hurricane or major storm has decreased sharply vs. yesterday. Normally, the ECMWF and the EPS handle short-term forecasts well, but did not handle the depth of the initial trough, hence the sudden short-range change(s). Now only a broad, sheared tropical storm appears probable, regardless of the exact track. Rainfall becomes the primary threat for Cuba, the Bahamas, and extreme South Florida and the Keys. Again, these views are my own and do not represent an official forecast.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#131 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:41 am

Here's the 0Z Euro 300mb wind prediction. Woosh. (note this is in KPH)

Image
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#132 Postby boca » Mon Oct 23, 2017 12:02 pm

Looks like low pressure is starting to take shape of the NE coast Nicaragua
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#133 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Oct 23, 2017 12:07 pm

tolakram wrote:Here's the 0Z Euro 300mb wind prediction. Woosh. (note this is in KPH)

Image

That’s definitely woosh-like pattern to me.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#134 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 23, 2017 12:18 pm

it that frontal forecast verifies, this won't be the doodler I expected
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#135 Postby Usf11 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 12:42 pm

Told you guys Florida is safe. I have yet seen a post from someone complaining their back hurts, arthritis is flaring up.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#136 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:25 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Slow development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves northwestward to
northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#137 Postby toad strangler » Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:32 pm

12z Euro continues the weak sauce theme through 144
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#138 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:16 pm

This hurricane season is never going to end is it?
Last edited by BYG Jacob on Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#139 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:19 pm

it's getting close, fronts are getting stronger and stronger and are coming more often......I think if we see anything else would be a weak weak trop storm at best, but u never know
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Re: Disturbed weather in western caribbean

#140 Postby Frank2 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:51 pm

Winter look in the GOM with a cloud-clearing cold front - hurricane season is almost over...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html
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