Potential Tropical Cyclones Advisories - Pro's & Con's Discussion

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Potential Tropical Cyclones Advisories - Pro's & Con's Discussion

#1 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:34 pm

Are potential tropical cyclone advisories really necessary? Let's have a discussion about it.
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Re: Potential Tropical Cyclones Advisories - Pro's & Con's Discussion

#2 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:57 pm

I would support issuing warnings if there is no declaration because I don't see the harm, but I don't really see the harm in calling something potential either. Warnings are up, that's what people pay attention too.


The NHC mission statement is this:

Mission
(Why We Exist)

To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic
efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings,
forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical
weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards.


In my opinion they should be able to issue warnings for a strong tropical wave if conditions warrant. If it was my choice I would drop the potential wording, keep it as a red X, and issue tropical storm watches / warnings where needed. It is a forecast after all, not a hind cast.
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Re: Potential Tropical Cyclones Advisories - Pro's & Con's Discussion

#3 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:21 pm

tolakram wrote:I would support issuing warnings if there is no declaration because I don't see the harm, but I don't really see the harm in calling something potential either. Warnings are up, that's what people pay attention too.


The NHC mission statement is this:

Mission
(Why We Exist)

To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic
efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings,
forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical
weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards.


In my opinion they should be able to issue warnings for a strong tropical wave if conditions warrant. If it was my choice I would drop the potential wording, keep it as a red X, and issue tropical storm watches / warnings where needed. It is a forecast after all, not a hind cast.


Very good point about issuing watches/warnings and keeping the red X instead of PTC advisories. I remember reading in an older thread that if the NWS can issue watches/warnings for tornado’s for tornado’s that havent even formed yet, then they should be able to do the same for tropical cyclones. I agree with you: Allow for the issuance of watches/warnings but stop the PTC designation.


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Re: Potential Tropical Cyclones Advisories - Pro's & Con's Discussion

#4 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:10 pm

The thinking here is wrong. Those saying no ptc advisories have no clue as to how a hurricane response plan is activated. The full advisory allows for all products to be issued, including probabilities.

Private industry has been issuing advisories on disturbances for years. It was a main differentiator. Feedback positive. Nhc simply is catching up to private industry, though in this case, the private secror was issuing advisories almost 36 longer than nhc had been
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Re: Potential Tropical Cyclones Advisories - Pro's & Con's Discussion

#5 Postby psyclone » Fri Oct 27, 2017 9:41 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
tolakram wrote:I would support issuing warnings if there is no declaration because I don't see the harm, but I don't really see the harm in calling something potential either. Warnings are up, that's what people pay attention too.


The NHC mission statement is this:

Mission
(Why We Exist)

To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic
efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings,
forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical
weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards.


In my opinion they should be able to issue warnings for a strong tropical wave if conditions warrant. If it was my choice I would drop the potential wording, keep it as a red X, and issue tropical storm watches / warnings where needed. It is a forecast after all, not a hind cast.


Very good point about issuing watches/warnings and keeping the red X instead of PTC advisories. I remember reading in an older thread that if the NWS can issue watches/warnings for tornado’s for tornado’s that havent even formed yet, then they should be able to do the same for tropical cyclones. I agree with you: Allow for the issuance of watches/warnings but stop the PTC designation.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Bullseye. we need new weather terms like a hole in the head.
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terstorm1012
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Re: Potential Tropical Cyclones Advisories - Pro's & Con's Discussion

#6 Postby terstorm1012 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 8:21 am

Alyono wrote:The thinking here is wrong. Those saying no ptc advisories have no clue as to how a hurricane response plan is activated. The full advisory allows for all products to be issued, including probabilities.

Private industry has been issuing advisories on disturbances for years. It was a main differentiator. Feedback positive. Nhc simply is catching up to private industry, though in this case, the private secror was issuing advisories almost 36 longer than nhc had been


I figured this was the case. It's also why I expect winter storms and nor'easters to get official names within the next 10 years. much of the world is already moving that way.
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Re: Potential Tropical Cyclones Advisories - Pro's & Con's Discussion

#7 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:49 pm

terstorm1012 wrote:
Alyono wrote:The thinking here is wrong. Those saying no ptc advisories have no clue as to how a hurricane response plan is activated. The full advisory allows for all products to be issued, including probabilities.

Private industry has been issuing advisories on disturbances for years. It was a main differentiator. Feedback positive. NHC simply is catching up to private industry, though in this case, the private sector was issuing advisories almost 36 longer than nhc had been


I figured this was the case. It's also why I expect winter storms and nor'easters to get official names within the next 10 years. much of the world is already moving that way.


As Alyono said, private industry has been issuing advisories on disturbances for many years. We issued our first advisory on Hermine last year 9 days before the NHC issued its first advisory when Hermine-to-be was already in the Gulf. These early advisories are quite important to businesses who need long lead times to prepare for a hurricane. Some of our clients need to start taking actions 7-10 days prior to possible impact. Can't wait for a system to be named before they begin preparations or they won't be ready when the storm hits.

One issue with PTC advisories on winter storms would be that you might be issuing an advisory on a low pressure area over the Rockies that's predicted to become a deep low offshore New England in 2 days. Or, there's no feature to focus on at all until the low develops off Hatteras. Typically, response plans for nor'easters are quite a bit different than for hurricanes. The need for evacuations would be rare. Main impacts would be coastal flooding, TS-strength winds along the coast, and possible heavy snow. I'm not in favor of naming winter storms.
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Re: Potential Tropical Cyclones Advisories - Pro's & Con's Discussion

#8 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:56 pm

psyclone wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
Very good point about issuing watches/warnings and keeping the red X instead of PTC advisories. I remember reading in an older thread that if the NWS can issue watches/warnings for tornado’s for tornado’s that havent even formed yet, then they should be able to do the same for tropical cyclones. I agree with you: Allow for the issuance of watches/warnings but stop the PTC designation.


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Bullseye. we need new weather terms like a hole in the head.


In order to issue watches/warning, there needs to be an associated weather system. A PTC is not a depression, it's a tropical disturbance. Would you rather the NHC issue advisories on "Disturbance Invest 94L" or just "Invest 94L"? I doubt if many among the general public would have the slightest idea what an "invest" is. PTC describes the system fairly well, though the public may not know what a tropical cyclone is. That term is not used in the Atlantic, though it's common elsewhere. Potential Tropical Storm?
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