2018 WPAC Season

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Imran_doomhaMwx
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#21 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:44 pm

From the Philippines, I greet everyone a HAPPY NEW YEAR! :)
Let's all hope for the best this 2018.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#22 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:41 pm

Happy New Year to everyone.

2018 just begun but looks like it's about to generate a new invest. I'm not expecting it to develop though. It's painfully close to the equator AGAIN. Haha

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#23 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:06 pm

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#24 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:24 am

GFS has a couple circulations moving through Micronesia but none of them develops significantly into a TC.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#25 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:17 am

January is usually more active than February and March, the two slowest months in the WPAC historically.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#26 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:01 am

Another Philippine storm?

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#27 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:43 am

GFS had a similiar scenario but somewhat weaker in the latest run.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#28 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:25 pm

GFS for the past few runs has multiple systems crossing the Southern Philippines and into Vietnam as a TC although the runs varies.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#29 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:17 pm

While we wait for the 2018 Typhoon Season to kick into gear, feel free to check out the reanalysis I did on the 1979 Typhoon Season, which I have summarized in a recent blog entry.

Reanalyzing the Pacific Typhoon Seasons: 1979
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#30 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:35 am

I doubt it plus climatology is against it so we'll see if future runs show this.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#31 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:58 am

Well well the EURO has went into GFS's route of a potential TC near the end of the month and into next month as a somewhat robust MJO signal moves through.

EURO is weak while GFS is up and down with intensity.

Philippines again?

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#32 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:27 pm

EURO drops any sort of development but GFS still sensing some tropical mischief mid to long range.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#33 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:54 am

06Z even more notorious than 00Z. Of course it's way out there. :wink:

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#34 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:56 pm

Just as a head's up, JTWC is now at a slightly different website. It's thrown me off for the past couple of days, so hopefully by posting the link, I can help y'all from being as confused as I was.

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#35 Postby euro6208 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:55 am

GFS's solution for a Valentine Day TC is coming into fruition.

93W THREAD
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#36 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:38 pm

GFS has been hinting on something for the past few runs in the long-range

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#37 Postby euro6208 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:53 am

Indeed. GFS is very notorious the last 3 runs showing a strong typhoon hitting the Philippines.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#38 Postby euro6208 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:02 am

1900hurricane wrote:Just as a head's up, JTWC is now at a slightly different website. It's thrown me off for the past couple of days, so hopefully by posting the link, I can help y'all from being as confused as I was.

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/


The most followed and popular agency in the world. JTWC follows 1 minute average winds than no other.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#39 Postby euro6208 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:05 am

GFS sensing formation around the 22nd.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#40 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:21 am

This is getting a little fringy long range, but ensemble means are showing some lower surface pressures around the day 10 timeframe. Overall agreement between GEFS and EPS is actually pretty good considering the range, and it's possible we could squeeze out another early season storm, especially if Madden-Julian hangs out in phase 7 for a little while longer.

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