2018 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#241 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 19, 2018 4:28 pm

Image

GFS still showing the long range cyclones.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#242 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:45 pm

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#243 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:17 pm

It wouldn't surprise me if July ends up being fairly active because of a couple of these factors. The warm pool, while not currently not in an El Nino location, is still biased a little easterly than normal, which may help give systems a little more room to grow. Combined with the cool waters west of the Maritime Continent, this is also a good look for focusing rising motion over the WPac. The Mei-yu will need to clear out first though.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#244 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:00 pm

Image

Image

Image

Convection is pretty active near the dateline and the Marshall islands and there could be a weak circulation embedded in it.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#245 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 8:15 am

mrbagyo wrote:

Convection is pretty active near the dateline and the Marshall islands and there could be a weak circulation embedded in it.


Won't be around for long.


Extensive cloudiness, widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms
remain spread across Kosrae and the Marshall Islands...and near/just
south of Pohnpei and Chuuk. A near-equatorial trough remains curved
across the region, possibly with weak circulations embedded within
the trough. Models show this trough slowly shifting northward as it
weakens over the next 24 to 36 hours. GFS maintains much drier
conditions across the region by Friday night with light/variable
winds eventually shifting to the east and northeast on Saturday.

Main weather concern remains the broad area of disturbed weather
near Kosrae and the Marshall Islands in the next 24 hours. Will
watch closely to see that weather conditions do taper off as models
indicate.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#246 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:25 am

EURO and GFS same timeframe but EURO weaker in short. EURO has it passing north of Okinawa...AGAIN...

Image

Image
Image
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#247 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:31 am

EURO and GFS still has the Okinawa system. EURO keeps it weak while GFS has alternating scenarios...Major typhoon to nothing at all...
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#248 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:34 am

Our next major longtracker?

Image
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#249 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jun 24, 2018 7:17 am

The models drop the Okinawa system and delays the formation of the long tracker.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#250 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:13 am

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#251 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 26, 2018 6:03 am

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Image
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#252 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Jun 26, 2018 6:35 am

The models take that area of convection near the Marianas towards the Ryukyu islands.
Perhaps some weak/slight development possible.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#253 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:01 am

:uarrow: Too much TUTT cells around it.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#254 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 26, 2018 5:28 pm

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#255 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 26, 2018 5:29 pm

Image

GFS has another typhoon passing near Guam long range.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#256 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:28 am

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#257 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 27, 2018 4:42 pm

The past couple of runs has been entertaining to say the least.

00Z

Image

06Z

Image

12Z

Image
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#258 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 27, 2018 4:45 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Image



Over the West Pacific, the GFS ensembles show potential development early in the period east of the Philippines, with a second potential tropical cyclone forming near or north of Guam. Both of these potential formation regions were covered with a single high confidence shape during Week-1 of the outlook period. For Week-2, additional tropical cyclone development is possible once again in the vicinity of Guam, with the threat extending northwestward well east of the Philippines.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#259 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:23 am

Image
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#260 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:33 am

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