2018 WPAC Season

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#321 Postby Twisted-core » Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:16 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:GFS going nuts. :P

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It's interest that :uarrow: one large monsoonal/low-gyre type system with multi rotating vorts . No really that uncommon


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https://imgur.com/H24OA2s



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https://imgur.com/0B7lVYG
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#322 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:57 am

Here comes 2 more after the landfalling one.

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NAVGEM very similiar.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#323 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:06 am

GFS still crazy. Outburst of activity with a crossover from the CPAC.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#324 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:20 am

Kinda off topic but shows that even no direct influence from tropical cyclones, Japan, probrably with the best infrastructure for typhoons in the world...can experience such disaster.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/More-175-Killed-Japans-Deadliest-Flooding-36-Years

It's going to be terrible as we head to the heart of the season. Those rains and floodings are a killer.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#325 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:23 am

Seeing reports now of over 200 dead.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#326 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:13 pm

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1016714429147250688


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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#327 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:37 am

Sticking to it's guns...

2 more right after.

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Super crazy solutions from GFS...
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#328 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:10 am

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In the West Pacific, moderate confidence continues for a pair of systems possibly developing east of Taiwan and the Philippines during the remainder of Week-1. A moderate confidence TC formation region was considered during Week-2 within the Mei-yu front in an area similar to Week-1, but the GEFS is the only forecast model bullish on this development while also having a noted false alarm bias for tropical cyclogenesis relative to other ensemble systems.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#329 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:52 pm

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#330 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 17, 2018 10:19 am

The global models still has the basin in hyper mode. I counted on the latest EURO run 00Z 5 systems...
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#331 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:57 am

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#332 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:16 am

Quick glance at the EURO and GFS...Keeps the basin very active...as the MJO moves through.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#333 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:23 am

Why Hurricane Hunters are flying in monsoons in Sri Lanka

Shouldn't they be flying into intense typhoons for research during the Atlantic's lull? I'm sure Japan, China, and the U.S would contribute.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#334 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:24 am

Image

CFS also shows very favorable VP anomalies to continue for the WPAC.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#335 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:09 am

Another invest in the monsoon trough.

95W THREAD
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#336 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:11 am

euro6208 wrote:Another invest in the monsoon trough.

95W THREAD

Unlike the other systems in the basin right now, 95W doesn't appear to be in a monsoon trough.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#337 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:07 pm

EURO with Jongdari and Shanshan on both sides of the Marianas.

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NAVGEM similiar.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#338 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:37 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Another invest in the monsoon trough.

95W THREAD

Unlike the other systems in the basin right now, 95W doesn't appear to be in a monsoon trough.

Image

For sure, this one is an ITCZ disturbance. The lack of low level westerlies is a dead giveaway.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#339 Postby Twisted-core » Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:41 am

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GFS00z 90+hrs
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#340 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:40 am

We'll most probably have another Invest designated soon from that area SE of Guam.
JMA already has it as a LPA on their maps.

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 11N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.

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