2018 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

EURO has Son-Tinh much stronger on a China/Vietnam landfall...

[euro6208]

The disparity continues. GFS has Son-Tinh barreling towards Taiwan...

[euro6208]

A tale of 2 models.

[euro6208]

12z GFS suddenly explodes the basin. Sees 4 more behind Son-Tinh...

[euro6208]

NAVGEM in the EURO camp. Shows Son-Tinh developing near Hainan. 00Z EURO much weaker only 993 mb.

[euro6208]

Bad run but GFS got 1 right. Has Son-Tinh in the SCS followed by 3 more.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1015591626557669380

[euro6208]

Wet weather in store for much of Micronesia the next few days.

The monsoon will keep showers & thunderstorms in place at Yap & Koror through midweek. Winds & seas will be near hazardous levels for small craft.

A couple of disturbances in central & east Micronesia will bring periods of showers & thunderstorms from Chuuk State to the Marshall Islands the next few days.

Locations that see periods of heavy rain over several days will be susceptible for mudslides.

[dexterlabio]

The next couple of days could be tricky. While there is potential of another TC activity after Maria, the location of cyclone genesis is quite unclear per the latest model runs.

[1900hurricane]

Not too surprising with Madden-Julian about to begin overspreading the basin from west to east. The combo of Madden-Julian and the Southwest Monsoon this time of year can give guidance fits. Areas near the Philippines makes sense to me at least initially since upward motion will come from that direction. I'll be more surprised if we don't get a couple storms out of the next two weeks than if we do.

[euro6208]

What? Another KW so soon?

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1016456053876195333

[euro6208]

GFS and EURO continuously in agreement on the SCS system. GFS explodes with 4 more after.

EURO with Ampil next southeast of Okinawa.

[euro6208]

Over the West Pacific, Typhoon Maria strengthened to Category-3 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and is forecast to pass just north of Taiwan before making landfall over eastern mainland China early in the period. Additional tropical cyclogenesis is favored over the West Pacific basin during Week-1, with a disturbance near Guam (Invest 92W) favored to develop over the next few days east of the Philippines. A second system may form over the northern South China Sea later in the Week-1 period. Further east, there is a low to moderate potential for tropical cyclone formation over the east-central Pacific well west of 120W, and southeast of Hawaii in the vicinity of enhanced ITCZ activity. Additionally, the remnants of Hurricane Beryl, or the broader disturbance in which it was embedded, have a moderate potential for redevelopment during Week-1 just east of the Bahamas. Most GFS ensemble members keep this system east of the mainland U.S., although the potential for impacts along the coast cannot be completely ruled out. During Week-2, additional tropical cyclogenesis is possible over the Northwest Pacific near or west of Guam, while the Western Hemisphere basins appear to quiet down.

[doomhaMwx]

GFS going nuts.

[Kingarabian]

That's worse than some of the CMCs obnoxious solutions in prior years.

[1900hurricane]

I was waiting for the first solution like that to appear. When I mentioned that this type of setup gives guidance fits, I wan't joking.

[euro6208]

The more reliable EURO has 2 more after Son-Tinh and Ampil?

92W THREAD
93W THREAD

[euro6208]

Another invest in the monsoon trough.

94W THREAD

[euro6208]

Quite an MJO moving through. Models continue to explode the basin.