2018 WPAC Season

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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#441 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:29 pm

mrbagyo wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Next 5 names...

Leepi
Bebinca
Rumbia
Soulik
Cimaron



Cimaron is still up in the lineup? That monster name was used in 2oo6.

Cimaron was never retired. It was a weak TS in 2013.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#442 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:19 am

00Z EURO similiar to 12Z....
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#443 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:47 am

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#444 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:51 am

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#445 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:29 pm

GFS and EURO now in agreement on another large but weak system headed towards Taiwan and China.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#446 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:19 am

euro6208 wrote:August and final update out of the year...

TSR continues to predict the 2018 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will see activity
slightly above the 1965-2017 norm.



27...17...9...319 ACE

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/


So far this season 1 min wise is pathetic...

14 TROPICAL STORMS
6 TYPHOONS
2 MAJOR TYPHOONS
1 CAT 5
ACE 91.9

More garbage storms than quality storms as we've seen the last 2 years or so.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#447 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:14 am

Image

GFS seems to be down. 06Z not running. 00Z though is quite similiar.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#448 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:03 pm

Long range GFS has 2 typhoons.

Image
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#449 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:40 pm

If 2018 would act like 2006 or 2009, real action should start by September with the classic system starting to parade in the middle of the month all the way to December.

Luzon should see some real action.
Image
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#450 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Aug 11, 2018 1:50 am

2018 has been so much like 2006 on both sides of the Pacific. Same naming lists, both have had a long-tracking powerful hurricane which traversed multiple basins (Ioke, Hector), a pre-June super typhoon, etc
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#451 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:13 am

EURO has slim down has one last surprise for August...

Image
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#452 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:18 am

Image
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#453 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:30 am

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#454 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:43 am

Wirh Leepi's upgrade, season is now...

15 TS
7 TY
2 MT
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#455 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:46 am

98W THREAD

Philippine sea system up...
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#456 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:14 pm

Image

Weak winds return to the Marianas today. This will help to nudge showers southwestward that will try to develop over the island today, as opposed to the past 2 days in which showers & thunderstorms developed and just sat over the island in the absence of surface winds.

Westerlies extend well into E. Micronesia and a circulation is found NE of Chuuk within the monsoon trough. This system could see some eventual development, but not for the next few days, at least. The Philippine Sea has been very active for developing tropical cyclones this season thus far and as disturbances continue to drift westward, that trend doesn't look to be ending soon.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#457 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:24 am

99W Thread

90W Thread

Systems around Guam.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#458 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:06 am

Another outbreak just like last month on cue despite no MJO and organized Kelvin Wave in the area.

Image
Image

Image
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#459 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:20 pm

Most of them have been pretty lame due to their development north of 20ºN, but the WPac is pooping out systems at a meteoric rate. We're already up to 22 JTWC designated systems (including the crossover Hector). If things stay active as the monsoon trough begins to retreat south, ACE will begin to really rack up.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#460 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:02 pm

91W Thread

How about another invest?
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