2018 WPAC Season

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Hayabusa
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#621 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:21 am

Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#622 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:23 am

EURO and GFS trending weaker on any systems.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#623 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:45 am

:double:
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#624 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:33 am

Image

There is a high risk of tropical cyclone formation in the West Pacific between 150-170E as multiple lows rotate clockwise around a fairly stationary high pressure system in the area. Both the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that at least one of these lows will develop into a TC in that region during both Week-1 and Week-2. Above-average rainfall is expected to along those tracks during both forecast weeks.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#625 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:23 pm

Here comes Yutu...

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#626 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:30 pm

GFS very notorious. Has development in 138 hours.

Image

Much weaker than the 898mb 06Z run.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#627 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:42 pm

Because of the 12z Euro operational run, more ensembles including strong ensembles
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#628 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:00 pm

18Z GFS stronger through 138 hours. Peaks this at 912 mb as it recurves just barely east of the Marianas.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#629 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:01 pm

Image

Here comes November.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#630 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:12 am

Image
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#631 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:57 am

The usual eps graphic bugged out (few ensembles showing) so here's the other eps graphic
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#632 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:19 am

Globals really latching onto future Yutu. Makes it quite strong.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#633 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:41 am

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#634 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:10 am

:uarrow: I don't think that's the system the models are developing significantly...
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#635 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:12 pm

Yeah pre-97W is the one the Euro and GFS developing a typhoon

GFS ensembles
Image
Euro ensembles
Image
But we all know the Euro failed miserably in tracking Trami and Kong-rey
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#636 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:20 pm

FXXT03 EGRR 181556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.10.2018

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.5N 152.6E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.10.2018 12.5N 152.6E WEAK
00UTC 23.10.2018 12.8N 150.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.10.2018 13.3N 147.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2018 13.5N 143.9E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.10.2018 13.4N 141.1E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 181556
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#637 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:22 pm

euro6208 wrote:
Here comes November.


Formation likely more east east of the Marianas. Another recurving typhoon?
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NWS for the Western Pacific

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#638 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:44 pm

19/00z by JMA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 109E WEST 10 KT.
South China Sea
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#639 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:38 pm

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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#640 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:06 pm

Vigorous monsoon trough setting up across the region.
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