2018 WPAC Season

[mrbagyo]

Starting to get that signal again

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Getting a mix of 2002, 2006 and 2012-2013 vibes here... Intense storms during the latter half of the year

[1900hurricane]

We've already exceeded last year's ACE and PDI total.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

We've already exceeded last year's ACE and PDI total.

With how the past three storms have behaved, it is very likely that the yearly average would be surpassed. More quality, long-tracking powerful typhoons are underway. Let's hope for minimum impact.

But my gut tells me at least one of these typhoons could strike the Philippines before year's end.

[JoshwaDone]

With how the past three storms have behaved, it is very likely that the yearly average would be surpassed. More quality, long-tracking powerful typhoons are underway. Let's hope for minimum impact.

But my gut tells me at least one of these typhoons could strike the Philippines before year's end.

Nahhh this country gets the brunt of strong typhoons during the Ber months.. 2013 feels so near again

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS agreeing on another system developing southeast of Guam.

99W THREAD

The latest(00Z) GFS and ECMWF are picking up on a new system developing west of the Marianas, along the eastern terminus of the Monsoon Trough, 3-4 days from now.
Since the steering setup with Jebi now would be mostly unchanged by then, anything that develops will most probably head to Japan again like the models are indicating.

98W THREAD

[euro6208]

EURO has another SCS threat.

[euro6208]

GFS doesn't see the SCS system but a long range one.

[euro6208]

Quite the disparity between EURO and GFS. EURO still has the SCS system hitting Hainan whereas GFS now shows something in the same time frame but further east making landfall over Taiwan.

[mrbagyo]

There's a developing circulation west of Mindoro Island.
Rotation is obvious on this sat loop.


Edit - it's now 90w

[euro6208]

There's a developing circulation west of Mindoro Island.
Rotation is obvious on this sat loop.


Edit - it's now 90w

90W THREAD

[mrbagyo]

PAGASA has a new website - it's more intuitive than the previous one - check it out.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Seeing some hints of more activity on the latest EURO and GFS.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

EURO has a couple disturbances but no significant strengthening.

GFS has another Taiwan threat middle range.

[euro6208]

Tropical cyclogenesis is forecast with moderate confidence over the West Pacific east of the Philippines during both Week-1 and Week-2. The ECMWF ensemble mean forecast suggests that conditions are broadly favorable for TC formation over this area.

[euro6208]

New EURO weeklies showing sinking air for much of October. Maybe not as active as we might thought it to be?

[euro6208]

EURO getting robust with 3 possible TC's. The 951 mb system originating near the dateline like Mangkhut.