It's a large system. Invest later today?
Kelvin Wave enhancing convection.
2018 WPAC Season
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re: 2018 WPAC Season
GFS has really backed up from developing the Marianas system. EURO is still ZILCH. NAVGEM joins in and deepens it to 990mb strongest run so far.
It's a large system. Invest later today?
Kelvin Wave enhancing convection.
It's a large system. Invest later today?
Kelvin Wave enhancing convection.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
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Digital-TC-Chaser
Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Mabe some assistance in the form of a passing west moving ER/wave. Likey it already spawned the spac td.
https://imgur.com/lP6leWD
https://imgur.com/lP6leWD
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Last year, most systems did not develop/intensify much due to a bunch of upper level lows. We can already see another upper level low situated over Guam northwest of our Invest 92W. Maybe a sign of another inactive season filled with upper lows?
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Not again. GFS on to something...
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NotSparta
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
euro6208 wrote:
Last year, most systems did not develop/intensify much due to a bunch of upper level lows. We can already see another upper level low situated over Guam northwest of our Invest 92W. Maybe a sign of another inactive season filled with upper lows?
hmm, interesting. Wonder how this evolves as we get into the core of typhoon season
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
Re: 2018 WPAC Season
GFS's all over the place with this one.
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JoshwaDone
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
euro6208 wrote:GFS's all over the place with this one.
looks like another disappointing season ahead
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StruThiO
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
JoshwaDone wrote:looks like another disappointing season ahead
Lol I know you're eager but remember it's only April
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Models hinting on another TC as the pre-el nino tries to pick up...
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JoshwaDone
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
StruThiO wrote:JoshwaDone wrote:looks like another disappointing season ahead
Lol I know you're eager but remember it's only April
The bulk of the season is coming up. Perfectly normal. Every season doesn't have to be in nino mode.
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NotSparta
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
euro6208 wrote:StruThiO wrote:JoshwaDone wrote:looks like another disappointing season ahead
Lol I know you're eager but remember it's only April
The bulk of the season is coming up. Perfectly normal. Every season doesn't have to be in nino mode.
WPAC, for a time, was above average ACE wise for the first time since December 31, 2015. That seems like a sign for a more active season, and it wouldn't be difficult to beat something as inactive as last year.
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Quite a difference between EURO and GFS. EURO keeps it weak while GFS brings a strengthening storm to the Northern Marianas.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
During Week-2, there is a low chance of formation (not depicted on map) near the Philippines and over the Bay of Bengal. Models are in poor agreement to this point, so it only warrants a text mention.
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NotoSans
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
JMA has released its best track for TY Jelawat. Peak intensity bumped up to 105kt/915mb, but looks like an over-estimate to me especially the central pressure.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
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1900hurricane
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Yeah, 105 kt is their T7.0 intensity, which I'm not quite sure it reached.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Well the EURO and GFS doesn't develop anything anymore.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Looking really active out there...
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
GFS develops a weak short live system well east of the Marianas.
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