JoshwaDone wrote:1900hurricane wrote:La Ninas are unfavorable across the WPac because of other reasons. Usual La Ninas feature strong trade winds and weak monsoon southwesterlies, resulting in an ill defined or absent monsoon trough and therefore less disturbances to develop. The Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough can also be seen draped across the basin near 20ºN in some years, such as least year. This brings unfavorable shear and large scale subsidence to tropical areas.
it's unfavorable here in the west pac, but it's a stormfest in the atlantic? am i right? pretty active in the other side last season. also regarding the south china sea, it looks like that's the typhoon maker, not the philippine sea like last season. any reasons for that?
There are other influences that play a part as well, but generally speaking, El Nino is a plus for all Pacific basins and a negative for non-Pacific basins (NAtl, NIO, SIO). The opposite holds true for La Nina.
Regarding the South China Sea during La Nina, activity is often focused there because monsoon southwesterlies are a little more common there. La Nina Pacific trade winds are usually pretty good at suppressing monsoon southwesterlies across most of the basin, but that isn't always the case at the far western reaches of the basin near the Maritime Contenent (Indonesia area).
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yes, i also think that we might have a close to average or average activity. we're still going to enter april, which is the "preparing stage of the west pac" for the rest of the season.
