2018 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

98C

[mrbagyo]

IMO, that area of persistent convection in the southern portion of SCS needs to be tagged.
It will likely move to BOB though

[euro6208]

Likely KW induce. Forecast of more KW moving through ahead of another MJO later this month.

[euro6208]

In Week-2, models indicate the potential for a TC to develop in the South China Sea and track towards Vietnam, resulting in the only TC formation area on the map for that lead.

[euro6208]

IMO, that area of persistent convection in the southern portion of SCS needs to be tagged.
It will likely move to BOB though

90W THREAD

[euro6208]

Meteorologist says Guam can expect one to two storms in the coming months

[euro6208]

Models still bullish on a SCS system.

[euro6208]

GFS develops another long tracker.

[euro6208]

Kelvin Wave more stronger than previously thought.

[euro6208]

EURO joins GFS on the potential long tracker.



GFS

[Hayabusa]

The 850 mb wind graphic looks like there's nothing on the Euro but the 850 mb vorticity shows it, typical of Euro to show something like this in long range just like it was before Yutu formed. There's nothing on the euro ensembles though on this model storm.

[Hayabusa]

[euro6208]

In Week-2, TC activity appears to be on the increase across the West Pacific in the wake of a Kelvin wave forecast to cross the basin during the next few days. Wind shear is also forecast to weaken, and become easterly, further supporting an increase in West Pacific TC potential. In addition, sea surface temperatures for the basin generally remain above 29 degrees C (anomalies of +0.5 to +1.5 degrees C). Multiple disturbances may form in Week-2 between Guam and the Antimeridian near 10N, some of which may strengthen into TCs. A broad region of moderate confidence for TC development is added to the Week-2 forecast map to account for this potential.

[euro6208]

EURO even more bullish now.

00Z



12Z

[euro6208]

Seems like GFS lost this system in the last 2 runs.

[Hayabusa]

FV3 GFS is developing it

[euro6208]

91W Thread

On SCS system up.

[euro6208]

Globals still liking an area to develop east of 98C or Southeast of Guam. EURO and GFS keeps it pretty weak at the moment. NAVGEM pretty robust.

[euro6208]

Here it is near the dateline. Models are varying.

[euro6208]

So now the EURO and GFS develops this AFTER it passes south of the Marianas.