2018 WPAC Season

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Twisted-core
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#381 Postby Twisted-core » Fri Jul 27, 2018 11:08 pm

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https://imgur.com/ZmjyqGL
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#382 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 28, 2018 1:09 am

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#383 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:01 am

Another outbreak on the horizon.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#384 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 29, 2018 7:22 am

The other global models also has an outbreak in the monsoon trough.

Image

Image
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#385 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 29, 2018 7:26 am

EURO

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Image
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#386 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 29, 2018 7:37 am

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1023522241416314881




Just look at the WPAC.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#387 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 29, 2018 8:23 pm

Image
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#388 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 31, 2018 6:09 am

The models (EURO, GFS, NAVGEM, CMC) continue to indicate a very active month of August for the WPAC and has storms developing in the SCS to near the dateline. Super crazy.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#389 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 31, 2018 6:10 am

Wow. The latest ECMWF weeklies continue to suggest a very active month of August with enhance convection everywhere.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1022624467648827392


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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#390 Postby Twisted-core » Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:38 am

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https://imgur.com/d3xJTes

The :grr: GFS is @ it again. :lol:
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#391 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:08 am

Twisted-core wrote:Image
https://imgur.com/d3xJTes

The :grr: GFS is @ it again. :lol:


GFS very aggressive on this.

93W THREAD
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#392 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:09 am

Next 2...

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#393 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:14 am

Kelvin Wave about to move through the basin and the dry phrase of the MJO locked in place.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#394 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:52 pm

There's a reason why it's the most active basin in the world...

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#395 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:56 pm

With 16W developing, that makes it 7 TC's developing during the month of July compared to the long-term average of 3-4 cyclones.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#396 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:04 pm

Image

The Western Pacific is expected to stay active during Week-1, before the suppressed convective signal moves in, lessening the likelihood for tropical cyclone (TC) development for the Week-2 period. With input from JTWC, two areas of possible formation are highlighted for Week-1; an area near Guam where there is high confidence for a TC formation toward the middle of Week-1 and an area of moderate confidence further east toward the central Pacific toward the end of Week-1. If formed, these systems will likely be short-lived, due to their expected tracks northward toward the mid-latitudes.

93W
94W
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#397 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:24 pm

EURO has 2 more and 3 for GFS around the Philippines.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#398 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:18 pm

Hector is now increasingly likely to enter the Western Pacific as a powerful typhoon. We could get lots of ACE. It could be a repeat of Ioke.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#399 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:23 pm

I have a question. Does storms entering the WPAC from the EPAC/CPAC get counted to the WPAC?
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#400 Postby NotSparta » Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:25 pm

euro6208 wrote:I have a question. Does storms entering the WPAC from the EPAC/CPAC get counted to the WPAC?


If you mean ACE, yes, as soon as they cross the dateline, until they either leave the basin or dissipate
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