2018 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

3 invest in the robust monsoon trough from 99W in the SCS, 90W east of Mindanao, and 91W southeast of Guam.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS and ECMWF seem to have backed off on both systems.

[euro6208]

Strong KW and MJO in the area.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Interesting that with a KW and a MJO in the WPAC, we have 3 struggling systems in the monsoon trough. Quite large too probrably why it's taken it's time to consolidate and potentially emerging.

Long range models keep the basin unusually quiet.

[NotSparta]

My guess is instability being robbed by the very warm SSTs in the subtropics

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1004122611700281344

[euro6208]

During Week-2, there is a moderate risk for tropical cyclone formation over the West Pacific between 140E and 150E. There is little indication of this in the current suite of dynamical model guidance, but the pattern seems conducive to development based on discussions with JTWC.

[euro6208]

On average, the WPAC produces 2 tropical cyclones during June. We already have Ewiniar making landfall over Southern China and possibly yet another to come soon in the first week of the month.

[euro6208]

West Pacific Accumulated Cyclone Energy is predicted via ECMWF to be 4.4 times higher than normal next week. Model is likely seeing the second WPAC typhoon.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1004684066916990976

[euro6208]

The western Pacific has also been active early in Week-1, with the formation of Tropical Storm Maliksi. Additional tropical cyclone formation is not expected at this time, so the region of development has been removed for the update. For Week-2, tropical cyclogenesis in the western Pacific continues to be absent in the model guidance, so the area of moderate confidence has also been removed from the map. Patterns may still be conducive to tropical cyclone formation; however, confidence in this forecast is low at this time.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1004593144858460160

[euro6208]

Looking like a very active Mei-yu front which is typical for this time of year already producing 2 tropical systems and models especially GFS and EURO develops more vortices in the next few days.

TS 07W
TD 08W

[euro6208]

The Mei-yu front acts like a barrier to tropical activity in the open WPAC although it is common at this time of year. The models have this breaking down later this month.

A Mei-yu regime like this is not usually a good one for WPac activity usually we see only short live weak systems. Maybe the end of the month and July we will see more typical WPAC systems? We'll see...

[euro6208]

It might be a while until something major happens...Models are on and off on development.

[doomhaMwx]

ASCAT pass/data from today indicates that a weak circulation (most probably from the remnants of Invest 92W) is found over the Philippine Sea,
between 130E-135E and 10N-15N. Model guidance keep this circulation/disturbance weak while moving generally WNW over the Philippine Sea during the next few days,
with some showing it eventually moving into Luzon, and some showing dissipation over the Philippine Sea.

[euro6208]

GFS trying to spice things up in July.

[euro6208]

Just boiling out there. Not much to stir those waters up since Cat 4 Jelawat back in March. There's a reason why this is the most active basin in the world.

[doomhaMwx]

ASCAT pass/data from today indicates that a weak circulation (most probably from the remnants of Invest 92W) is found over the Philippine Sea,
between 130E-135E and 10N-15N. Model guidance keep this circulation/disturbance weak while moving generally WNW over the Philippine Sea during the next few days, with some showing it eventually moving into Luzon, and some showing dissipation over the Philippine Sea.

INVEST 97W