2018 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

I have seen some on social media having issues with the next storm name here in the WPac, which is "Maria". We all know of the powerful and devastating Maria of last year's Atlantic Hurricane Season.
WMO has removed some names from the WPac naming list before due to some other reasons, such as religion-related and misspellings. The name "Vicente" was even removed/replaced to avoid potential confusion since that name also appears on the EPac naming list.

I agree that the name Maria in the WPac (and in any other basin, if there is) should be skipped/removed/replaced. What do the others think?
By the way, the name has been contributed by the USA.

I think it's just U.S biased here. I know of a few names that were devastating in the WPAC but still is being use today in the Atlantic. How about elsewhere?

What if the devastating Maria from last year wasn't from the Atlantic? Would it still get some criticism?

Sometimes i think the Atlantic think they are the only basin in the world. They come up with all sorts of things like global warming or category 6.

[TheAustinMan]

I think it's just U.S biased here. I know of a few names that were devastating in the WPAC but still is being use today in the Atlantic. How about elsewhere?

What if the devastating Maria from last year wasn't from the Atlantic? Would it still get some criticism?

Sometimes i think the Atlantic think they are the only basin in the world. They come up with all sorts of things like global warming or category 6.

Countries petition the WMO to retire certain names due to loss of life, devastation, political, or other reasons. The name Maria was retired which is why its potential naming post-retirement in the WPAC is being discussed as it's an interesting situation in WMO naming protocol. We have not seen a Fanapi, Washi, Vicente, Bopha, Sonamu, Utor, Fitow, Haiyan, Rammasun, Soudelor, Mujigae, Koppu, Melor, Meranti, Sarika, Haima, Nock-ten, Hato, Kai-tak, Tembin, or any of the names retired since JMA took naming responsibility in 2000 in another basin other than the WPAC. I can assure you that the Atlantic being "the only basin in the world" is not a common sentiment.

[euro6208]

For Week-2, JTWC is indicating potential tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific, slightly to the east of where TD 10W formed.

[euro6208]

For Week-2, JTWC is indicating potential tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific, slightly to the east of where TD 10W formed.

[euro6208]

8th run in a row GFS has something developing mid range east of the Marianas and veering off to the North.

[euro6208]

More activity long range.

[doomhaMwx]

We now have Tropical Storm MARIA anyway... Anticipated to become a strong typhoon...

[euro6208]

A sign of an active July?

[euro6208]

The next TSR update will be released very soon. Last update in May called for 27/17/9 ACE 307 which is slightly above the 1965-2017 norm.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[euro6208]

EURO with another SCS system. GFS is on and off on any long range systems.

[euro6208]

Cat 5 Maria

Well well. 40 years record consecutive Cat 5 season which began is 1977 broken last year didn't last long. WPAC back to business.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1014819702420353024

[euro6208]

A bit more stronger on the latest EURO run on Son-Tinh.

[euro6208]

Just goes to show how weak this season has been similiar to the last 2 years.

Season is...

9 Tropical Storms
3 Typhoons
2 Major Typhoons
2 STY's
1 Cat 5

[euro6208]

Next 5 names truly asian...

Son-Tinh
Ampil
Wukong
Jongdari
Shanshan

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Just goes to show how weak this season has been similiar to the last 2 years.

Season is...

9 Tropical Storms
3 Typhoons
2 Major Typhoons
2 STY's
1 Cat 5

It's still July. Maria would easily catapult ACE to above-average territory.

[JoshwaDone]

Interesting.. GFS has Son-tinh on the Pacific while ECMWF has it on SCS next Saturday

[JoshwaDone]

Btw the new forecast is out

ACE Index - 331
Intense typhoons - 10
Typhoons - 17
Tropical Storms - 27

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[euro6208]

Between 11-17 July, over and east of the Philippines, there are two areas of above average rainfall (moderate confidence) predicted by both the ECMWF and CFS models. These areas may be related to the expected emergence of an intensifying subseasonal signal in this general region (RMM phases 4/5).

[euro6208]

Btw the new forecast is out

ACE Index - 331
Intense typhoons - 10
Typhoons - 17
Tropical Storms - 27

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

The main factor behind the TSR forecast for a slightly above-normal Northwest Pacific typhoon season in
2018 is the small-to-moderately positive Niño 3.75 SST anomaly anticipated in August-September 2018.
A positive Niño 3.75 SST is associated with weaker trade wind strength over the region 2.5°N-12.5°N,
120°E-180°E. This leads to higher cyclonic vorticity over the Northwest Pacific region where intense
typhoons form; a factor that favours the occurrence of more typhoons. Although NW Pacific ACE in
2018 is currently below average we anticipate that the year-to-date ACE will increase to near or above
normal as Niño 3.75 SSTs continue to warm.