2018 WPAC Season

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mrbagyo
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#101 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:04 am

IMO, Maria should just be retired... for Atlantic and all the other basins as well. We won't run out of names.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#102 Postby JoshwaDone » Fri Mar 30, 2018 3:07 am

Jelawat is our first typhoon of the season!
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#103 Postby StruThiO » Fri Mar 30, 2018 3:14 am

JoshwaDone wrote:Jelawat is our first typhoon of the season!


from under to overachiever pretty quick.. already feels like this season might be more exciting than last year
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#104 Postby JoshwaDone » Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:20 am

StruThiO wrote:
JoshwaDone wrote:Jelawat is our first typhoon of the season!


from under to overachiever pretty quick.. already feels like this season might be more exciting than last year


it reminds me of both super typhoon nina (nock-ten) in 2016 and nona (melor) in 2015 - both december typhoons.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#105 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Mar 30, 2018 1:47 pm

At long last, my second entry in Pacific Typhoon Reanalysis is now up. This one deals with the El Nino 1982 Pacfic Typhoon Season.

Reanalyzing the Pacific Typhoon Seasons: 1982
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#106 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:37 pm

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#107 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:50 pm

After Jelawat, I feel like there's gonna be another WPAC system early in the season... Forecast has more WWB episodes in the coming days, and as we all know they often manifest in the Pacific by spawning cyclones.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#108 Postby euro6208 » Fri Mar 30, 2018 11:42 pm

Another early Cat 4 or 5 would be very significant.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#109 Postby JoshwaDone » Sat Mar 31, 2018 9:25 am

there will be another significant system.. here in the philippines, we're just waiting for the 4th storm. probably, we're gonna have an "active" season.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#110 Postby euro6208 » Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:14 am

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Above average locally and in the whole Northern Hemisphere.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#111 Postby euro6208 » Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:29 am

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GFS is sniffing possible Ewiniar threat for the 2nd run in a row for the Philippines. Super long range yeah. Something to keep an eye on.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#112 Postby euro6208 » Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:52 am

GEFS shows lowering pressures around the P.I sea and EPS has pressures lowering slowly westward.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#113 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 01, 2018 12:50 pm

12z GFS is bullish on developing a TC but is very long range so caution.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#114 Postby euro6208 » Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:14 am

GFS very rampant on this. 00Z had a strengthening typhoon over the central Philippines while 06Z almost has a similiar track to Jelawat recurves. Will be interesting what future runs will reveal and if other models will start to pick up on this.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#115 Postby euro6208 » Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:45 pm

Development in 240 hours.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#116 Postby euro6208 » Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:04 pm

Stronger on the 18z run.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#117 Postby euro6208 » Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:39 pm

Development time frame closer and stronger.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#118 Postby euro6208 » Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:40 pm

Besides Ewiniar, GFS has 2 more areas to watch out. It's been consistently showing a dateline TC and another south of Guam.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#119 Postby euro6208 » Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:44 pm

A trough extending from a circulation southwest of Chuuk is causing
the scattered showers southeast of us. GLD360 lightning data shows
there are a few thunderstorms in that group also. Most of these
showers are progged to slip south of us, so we have a bit of
increased clouds, while showers should still remain isolated. At
least we got enough rain to drive the KBDI back below 700. The GFS
brings a circulation just south of Guam in the far extended. The
ECMWF-HiRes has the same system, but is faster and weaker with it.
So, while some sort of system looks likely around mid-April, the
details are still a bit dubious.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#120 Postby euro6208 » Thu Apr 05, 2018 6:50 pm

NAVGEM, CMC, and JMA joining in on development.
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