2018 WPAC Season
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Last edited by euro6208 on Thu May 03, 2018 7:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Multiple weak circulations embedded within the surface trough that has produced 3 invest the last few days. 96W looks the most promising. The models show the pattern will be slow to change and wet weather will remain.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
000
FXPQ60 PGUM 020915
AFDPQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
715 PM ChST Wed May 2 2018
.Marianas Synopsis...
Andersen Air Force Base Doppler weather radar shows only a few
showers within the Marianas waters. The VAD wind profile indicates
east-northeast trade winds of 8 to 12 knots just off the ground
which increase to between 12 and 22 knots through the lowest 6
thousand feet of the air. The buoys reveal combined seas of 6 to 8
feet, composed of both trade-wind waves and swell, all from the
east-northeast.
&&
.Discussion...
Weather in the Marianas has settled back down after Guam briefly
got wet from a passing outflow boundary. Mainly dry weather is
expected through Tuesday. Moisture looks like it starts to increase
by Wednesday. For now just made the skies Mostly cloudy/Partly sunny
for the last few days of the grids. While I did refresh the winds
and recalculate the wind dependent grids, actual changes to the
forecast were minimal. It did look like the high risk of rip
currents could last at least through the weekend, so extended the
hazard grid. We should stay below high surf and small craft
advisory criteria.
&&
.Eastern Micronesia...
Active weather continues over this region. ASCAT Analysis shows the
surface trough still extends eastward over Chuuk and Pohnpei thru a
small circulation just west of Kwajalein at 9N166E (Invest 96W) then
northeastward to beyond the Date Line at 11N180. Areas of showers
and isolated thunderstorms have developed over Chuuk State and
northern Pohnpei and Kosrae States and the northern Marshall Islands
today. Models indicate the pattern will slowly retreat toward west-
northwest, but wet weather will remain over the region while the
surface trough and embedded circulations are nearby.
East-northeast trade-wind flow should gradually spread from east to
west across the region during this weekend, but convergent winds and
relatively wet weather will likely continue into next week.
&&
.Western Micronesia...
Satellite shows a band of showers nearly stationary between Yap and
Koror on the north side of a surface trough, but partly cloudy skies
remain over Yap and Koror today. Surface winds have turned southwest
at Koror and remain easterly across Yap. Only isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected for Yap and Koror in the coming days, but
weather may turn more unstable over far western Micronesia while the
trough remains nearby. Also, model guidance indicates an increase in
atmospheric moisture over the weekend.
&&
.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for GUZ001>004.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&
$$
Stanko/Simpson
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
1 Tropical Depression BOLAVE 01-04 JAN 30
2 Tropical Storm TWO 08-11 FEB 55
3 Tropical Storm SANBA 12-15 FEB 35
4 Super Typhoon JELAWAT 24 MAR-01 APR 130 4
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
The dry phrase of the MJO will keep things in check for now. The models especially EURO and GFS doesn't develop anything in their 240/384 runs for some time now...
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- doomhaMwx
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Guam / MarianaIslands:
"Guam can expect more tropical storm and typhoon activity this year than in 2017 and 2016. This is according to the 2018 typhoon prediction for Guam prepared by the NWS and WERI.
Their report forecasts a 50% chance of getting a strong tropical storm or a storm with sustained winds of 50-73 mph and a 25% chance of getting a category 1 typhoon. Then there is a 15% chance of getting a category 2 typhoon, a 10% change of getting a category 3 typhoon, a 3% change of a category 4 and a 1% chance of a category 5 supertyphoon."
https://pacificnewscenter.com/guam-coul ... lphin-hit/
"Guam can expect more tropical storm and typhoon activity this year than in 2017 and 2016. This is according to the 2018 typhoon prediction for Guam prepared by the NWS and WERI.
Their report forecasts a 50% chance of getting a strong tropical storm or a storm with sustained winds of 50-73 mph and a 25% chance of getting a category 1 typhoon. Then there is a 15% chance of getting a category 2 typhoon, a 10% change of getting a category 3 typhoon, a 3% change of a category 4 and a 1% chance of a category 5 supertyphoon."
https://pacificnewscenter.com/guam-coul ... lphin-hit/
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
TSR predicts above average season with 27 Tropical Storms, 17 Typhoons, and 9 Major Typhoons...ACE of 307.
TSR predicts the 2018 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will see activity slightly above the
1965-2017 norm. However, forecast uncertainties remain large
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRNWPForecastMay2018.pdf
TSR predicts the 2018 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will see activity slightly above the
1965-2017 norm. However, forecast uncertainties remain large
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRNWPForecastMay2018.pdf
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Still nothing on the GFS and EURO runs. MJO and KW should arrive last week of May/June...to spice things up.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Next 27 names on the list...
Ewiniar
Maliksi
Gaemi
Prapiroon
Maria
Son-Tinh
Ampil
Wukong
Jongdari
Shanshan
Yagi
Leepi
Bebinca
Rumbia
Soulik
Cimaron
Jebi
Mangkhut
Barijat
Trami
Kong-rey
Yutu
Toraji
Man-yi
Usagi
Pabuk
Wutip
Ewiniar
Maliksi
Gaemi
Prapiroon
Maria
Son-Tinh
Ampil
Wukong
Jongdari
Shanshan
Yagi
Leepi
Bebinca
Rumbia
Soulik
Cimaron
Jebi
Mangkhut
Barijat
Trami
Kong-rey
Yutu
Toraji
Man-yi
Usagi
Pabuk
Wutip
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- StruThiO
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Maria and Rumbia sound the scariest IMO
also interesting to see TSR going for an above average season.
also interesting to see TSR going for an above average season.
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- JoshwaDone
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
euro6208 wrote:Next 27 names on the list...
these names remind me of 2013 especially the bottom half.. will we have a 2013-like season?? only time will tell
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- mrbagyo
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Im thinking 2006 will be some sort of an analog for this year - last years was like 2005 to some extent (active atlantic, quiet in the Philippines).
Of course no two season will exactly be the same so it's still a waiting game.
Anyway, Im expecting at least 1 major landfall in the Philippines this year after having last year's dud. (PHI is much more likely to get hit by a Cat 5 in a 10 year period than to NOT experience a single typhoon strength landfall in a year within the same period)
Of course no two season will exactly be the same so it's still a waiting game.
Anyway, Im expecting at least 1 major landfall in the Philippines this year after having last year's dud. (PHI is much more likely to get hit by a Cat 5 in a 10 year period than to NOT experience a single typhoon strength landfall in a year within the same period)
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
- JoshwaDone
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
WPAc gonna have a weak El Nino at the end of 2018.. it might also seem that we're gonna have a active season (i think)
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
There's a reason why the WPAC is the most active basin in the world. The waters are insane. Will the atmosphere cooperate or will we see a continuation of upper level lows affecting cyclone development from last year?
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
The GFS is trying to wake up the basin once again around the Marianas. Coincides with the arrival of the MJO.
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- StruThiO
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
saw this posted on the epac season thread. Need to wait a while for rising air to come
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- NotSparta
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
maybe the heart of typhoon season begins with a bang in the beginning of June? Seems to have been kind of quiet here lately (other than the invests), not sure if it's normal
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
More robust and timeframe closing in.
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