2018 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#201 Postby euro6208 » Tue May 29, 2018 8:06 am

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#202 Postby euro6208 » Tue May 29, 2018 4:32 pm

Image

Low pressure in the South China Sea may develop into a tropical cyclone during the end of Week-1 or beginning of Week-2. Significant rainfall in this region, and to its south over the Philippines, will also be enhanced by the active phase of the MJO during the second half of Week-1 and much of Week-2.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#203 Postby JoshwaDone » Wed May 30, 2018 2:45 am

GFS got aggressive on their latest forecast for Ewiniar (left) and possibly Maliksi (right)

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#204 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed May 30, 2018 2:56 am

JoshwaDone wrote:GFS got aggressive on their latest forecast for Ewiniar (left) and possibly Maliksi (right)

[img]--IMAGES REMOVED--[img]

As usual with GFS' intensity forecast, especially that far out...
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#205 Postby JoshwaDone » Wed May 30, 2018 2:57 am

ECMWF is showing the same forecast with GFS but less aggressive

But i guarantee the habagat or southwest monsoon is coming

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#206 Postby JoshwaDone » Wed May 30, 2018 3:06 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
JoshwaDone wrote:GFS got aggressive on their latest forecast for Ewiniar (left) and possibly Maliksi (right)

[img]--IMAGES REMOVED--[img]

As usual with GFS' intensity forecast, especially that far out...


CMC heard that
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#207 Postby Twisted-core » Wed May 30, 2018 3:46 am

yes good support for two systems in the basin.

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https://imgur.com/88k9Rzc
ECMF

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https://imgur.com/uOjeIqt
GFS

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https://imgur.com/X4HYQBl
Canadian
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#208 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 30, 2018 6:03 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
JoshwaDone wrote:GFS got aggressive on their latest forecast for Ewiniar (left) and possibly Maliksi (right)

[img]--IMAGES REMOVED--[img]

As usual with GFS' intensity forecast, especially that far out...


A cat 5 barreling towards Hong Kong? We'll believe it when it happens. :lol:
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#209 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 30, 2018 6:06 am

06Z GFS continues with twin typhoons...893 mb?

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#210 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 30, 2018 6:27 am

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#211 Postby JoshwaDone » Wed May 30, 2018 6:52 am

Looks like the Atlantic basin is taking a break while the Pacific is waking up from its slumber
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#212 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed May 30, 2018 11:40 am

12z GFS similar to 6z GFS for both systems. 0z ECMWF less bullish on both systems, however.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#213 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 30, 2018 4:47 pm

Now has both systems bottoming out at sub -900mb in back to back runs...
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#214 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 30, 2018 4:49 pm

NWS sees the potential for the Philippine Sea system.

No change made to the forecast. Relatively dry weather will prevail
across the Marianas today and tonight. Forecast from yesterday
indicated scattered showers beginning over the Marianas sometime on
Friday night. The last few model runs seem to be trimming away at
this wet weather pattern. Models are trending towards a more patchy
rainfall pattern for Friday night with scattered showers now beginning
on Saturday. This trimming of the shower activity appears to stem
from what the models are doing to the circulation that was expected
to form near Guam this weekend. GFS still forms it, but further west.
This new development is agreeing with what the ECMWF had been
predicting over the last few days. Other models seem to be on the
same wavelength as NAVGEM and CMC also show similar predictions. With
this more westward development, the rainfall over the Marianas seems
to be less than earlier predicted. Low-level convergence to the east
of the expected circulation may still generate scattered showers over
the Marianas for part of the coming weekend.

Multiple model outputs are slowly developing the circulation just
north or northwest of Palau this weekend and next week. This
situation needs to be monitored since this can create a monsoonal
flow across far Western Micronesia most of next week.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#215 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 30, 2018 8:33 pm

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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#216 Postby JoshwaDone » Wed May 30, 2018 10:21 pm

Latest satellite image show two circulations between the Philippines.. signs of things to come
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#217 Postby JoshwaDone » Thu May 31, 2018 5:49 am

GFS and ECMWF forecasts agree on 90W threatening the northern section of the Philippines, making landfall on Cagayan and Batanes area on the 7th.

However, GFS makes 90W move north before going west to northern Luzon, not affecting any part of the country, while ECMWF suggests 90w will strengthen while moving parallel close to Philippines before making landfall at Cagayan.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#218 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 31, 2018 7:56 am

JoshwaDone wrote:GFS and ECMWF forecasts agree on 90W threatening the northern section of the Philippines, making landfall on Cagayan and Batanes area on the 7th.

However, GFS makes 90W move north before going west to northern Luzon, not affecting any part of the country, while ECMWF suggests 90w will strengthen while moving parallel close to Philippines before making landfall at Cagayan.


There's already a thread for that. Just click on the hyperlink above for 90W (Philippine Sea) or 99W (South China Sea). Or you can go directly to the WestPac/Asia forum. :D
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#219 Postby JoshwaDone » Thu May 31, 2018 8:11 am

euro6208 wrote:
JoshwaDone wrote:GFS and ECMWF forecasts agree on 90W threatening the northern section of the Philippines, making landfall on Cagayan and Batanes area on the 7th.

However, GFS makes 90W move north before going west to northern Luzon, not affecting any part of the country, while ECMWF suggests 90w will strengthen while moving parallel close to Philippines before making landfall at Cagayan.


There's already a thread for that. Just click on the hyperlink above for 90W (Philippine Sea) or 99W (South China Sea). Or you can go directly to the WestPac/Asia forum. :D


oh ok ok thanks
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#220 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 31, 2018 8:38 am

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