2018 WPAC Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 14101
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#161 Postby euro6208 » Tue May 01, 2018 4:50 pm

96W THREAD

97W THREAD

Well that was fast.

*Edited to include 97W.
Last edited by euro6208 on Thu May 03, 2018 7:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 14101
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#162 Postby euro6208 » Tue May 01, 2018 5:02 pm

Image

Multiple weak circulations embedded within the surface trough that has produced 3 invest the last few days. 96W looks the most promising. The models show the pattern will be slow to change and wet weather will remain.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 14101
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#163 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 02, 2018 6:40 am

Image

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 020915
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
715 PM ChST Wed May 2 2018

.Marianas Synopsis...
Andersen Air Force Base Doppler weather radar shows only a few
showers within the Marianas waters. The VAD wind profile indicates
east-northeast trade winds of 8 to 12 knots just off the ground
which increase to between 12 and 22 knots through the lowest 6
thousand feet of the air. The buoys reveal combined seas of 6 to 8
feet, composed of both trade-wind waves and swell, all from the
east-northeast.

&&

.Discussion...
Weather in the Marianas has settled back down after Guam briefly
got wet from a passing outflow boundary. Mainly dry weather is
expected through Tuesday. Moisture looks like it starts to increase
by Wednesday. For now just made the skies Mostly cloudy/Partly sunny
for the last few days of the grids. While I did refresh the winds
and recalculate the wind dependent grids, actual changes to the
forecast were minimal. It did look like the high risk of rip
currents could last at least through the weekend, so extended the
hazard grid. We should stay below high surf and small craft
advisory criteria.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Active weather continues over this region. ASCAT Analysis shows the
surface trough still extends eastward over Chuuk and Pohnpei thru a
small circulation just west of Kwajalein at 9N166E (Invest 96W) then
northeastward to beyond the Date Line at 11N180. Areas of showers
and isolated thunderstorms have developed over Chuuk State and
northern Pohnpei and Kosrae States and the northern Marshall Islands
today. Models indicate the pattern will slowly retreat toward west-
northwest, but wet weather will remain over the region while the
surface trough and embedded circulations are nearby.

East-northeast trade-wind flow should gradually spread from east to
west across the region during this weekend, but convergent winds and
relatively wet weather will likely continue into next week.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Satellite shows a band of showers nearly stationary between Yap and
Koror on the north side of a surface trough, but partly cloudy skies
remain over Yap and Koror today. Surface winds have turned southwest
at Koror and remain easterly across Yap. Only isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected for Yap and Koror in the coming days, but
weather may turn more unstable over far western Micronesia while the
trough remains nearby. Also, model guidance indicates an increase in
atmospheric moisture over the weekend.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for GUZ001>004.

Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Stanko/Simpson
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 14101
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#164 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 02, 2018 8:09 pm

1 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 14101
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#165 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 04, 2018 6:54 am

Image

1 Tropical Depression BOLAVE 01-04 JAN 30
2 Tropical Storm TWO 08-11 FEB 55
3 Tropical Storm SANBA 12-15 FEB 35
4 Super Typhoon JELAWAT 24 MAR-01 APR 130 4
1 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 14101
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#166 Postby euro6208 » Tue May 08, 2018 6:40 am

Image
Image
Image
2 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 14101
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#167 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 09, 2018 6:31 am

The dry phrase of the MJO will keep things in check for now. The models especially EURO and GFS doesn't develop anything in their 240/384 runs for some time now...

Image
3 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 672
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#168 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu May 10, 2018 3:49 am

Guam / MarianaIslands:

"Guam can expect more tropical storm and typhoon activity this year than in 2017 and 2016. This is according to the 2018 typhoon prediction for Guam prepared by the NWS and WERI.
Their report forecasts a 50% chance of getting a strong tropical storm or a storm with sustained winds of 50-73 mph and a 25% chance of getting a category 1 typhoon. Then there is a 15% chance of getting a category 2 typhoon, a 10% change of getting a category 3 typhoon, a 3% change of a category 4 and a 1% chance of a category 5 supertyphoon."

https://pacificnewscenter.com/guam-coul ... lphin-hit/

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 14101
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#169 Postby euro6208 » Tue May 15, 2018 6:42 am

TSR predicts above average season with 27 Tropical Storms, 17 Typhoons, and 9 Major Typhoons...ACE of 307.

TSR predicts the 2018 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will see activity slightly above the
1965-2017 norm. However, forecast uncertainties remain large


http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRNWPForecastMay2018.pdf
1 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 14101
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#170 Postby euro6208 » Tue May 15, 2018 6:55 am

Still nothing on the GFS and EURO runs. MJO and KW should arrive last week of May/June...to spice things up.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 14101
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#171 Postby euro6208 » Tue May 15, 2018 8:12 am

Next 27 names on the list...

Ewiniar
Maliksi
Gaemi
Prapiroon
Maria
Son-Tinh
Ampil
Wukong
Jongdari
Shanshan
Yagi
Leepi
Bebinca
Rumbia
Soulik
Cimaron
Jebi
Mangkhut
Barijat
Trami
Kong-rey
Yutu
Toraji
Man-yi
Usagi
Pabuk
Wutip
2 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
StruThiO
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 195
Age: 18
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#172 Postby StruThiO » Tue May 15, 2018 5:44 pm

:uarrow: Maria and Rumbia sound the scariest IMO

also interesting to see TSR going for an above average season.
1 likes   

JoshwaDone
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 33
Age: 18
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 10:02 pm
Location: Camarines Sur, Philippines

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#173 Postby JoshwaDone » Tue May 15, 2018 6:10 pm

euro6208 wrote:Next 27 names on the list...


these names remind me of 2013 especially the bottom half.. will we have a 2013-like season?? only time will tell
0 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1525
Age: 26
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#174 Postby mrbagyo » Wed May 16, 2018 3:27 am

Im thinking 2006 will be some sort of an analog for this year - last years was like 2005 to some extent (active atlantic, quiet in the Philippines).
Of course no two season will exactly be the same so it's still a waiting game.

Anyway, Im expecting at least 1 major landfall in the Philippines this year after having last year's dud. (PHI is much more likely to get hit by a Cat 5 in a 10 year period than to NOT experience a single typhoon strength landfall in a year within the same period)
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

JoshwaDone
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 33
Age: 18
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 10:02 pm
Location: Camarines Sur, Philippines

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#175 Postby JoshwaDone » Tue May 22, 2018 12:22 am

Image

WPAc gonna have a weak El Nino at the end of 2018.. it might also seem that we're gonna have a active season (i think)
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 14101
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#176 Postby euro6208 » Tue May 22, 2018 5:09 am

There's a reason why the WPAC is the most active basin in the world. The waters are insane. Will the atmosphere cooperate or will we see a continuation of upper level lows affecting cyclone development from last year?

Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 14101
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#177 Postby euro6208 » Tue May 22, 2018 4:24 pm

The GFS is trying to wake up the basin once again around the Marianas. Coincides with the arrival of the MJO.
1 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
StruThiO
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 195
Age: 18
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#178 Postby StruThiO » Wed May 23, 2018 2:30 pm

:uarrow: saw this posted on the epac season thread. Need to wait a while for rising air to come

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 598
Age: 16
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Between Toronto and Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#179 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 23, 2018 3:02 pm

:uarrow: maybe the heart of typhoon season begins with a bang in the beginning of June? Seems to have been kind of quiet here lately (other than the invests), not sure if it's normal
1 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 14101
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#180 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 23, 2018 6:11 pm

More robust and timeframe closing in.

Image
Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Eric Webb, Google [Bot], Hurricaneman, Siker, TorSkk and 22 guests