2018 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#681 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:30 pm

Image

Just moving along.

EURO and GFS coming in stronger. Track has it on a general westward track passing south of Guam and near Yap. EURO keeps it weak, 1000 mb, while GFS drops this down to 977mb in the Philippine Sea.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#682 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:25 pm

Anyone know if the NWS Guam has a public information statement or something containing a list of observations from Yutu in the Marianas?
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#683 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:58 am

The storm the models are developing behind 98C are forecasting a NW-NNW track then recurve, that although it could happen it seems unlikely at this time of the year.
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Last edited by Hayabusa on Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#684 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:59 am

00Z EURO stronger.

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Image
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#685 Postby vortextracker » Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:28 am

Hayabusa wrote:The storm the models are developing behind 98C are forecasting a NW-NNW track then recurve, that although it could happen it seems unlikely at this time of the year.


Image
https://imgur.com/LRZW53a

Dynamic atmosphere bro.EPS see's a typhoon atm.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#686 Postby TorSkk » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:20 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Anyone know if the NWS Guam has a public information statement or something containing a list of observations from Yutu in the Marianas?


Apparently a person who recorded some data during landfall is doing a damage assessment this week.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#687 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 16, 2018 5:38 pm

Now 92W
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#688 Postby TorSkk » Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:45 am

1900hurricane wrote:Anyone know if the NWS Guam has a public information statement or something containing a list of observations from Yutu in the Marianas?

A pressure of 934 mb was recorded on Saipan in the eyewall
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#689 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:47 am

1900hurricane wrote:Anyone know if the NWS Guam has a public information statement or something containing a list of observations from Yutu in the Marianas?


According to NWS...

We're still in the process of assessing things on Tinian and Saipan and will probably have something out in the next week or two summarizing findings.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#690 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 19, 2018 8:43 am

Image

Nonstop.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#691 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 20, 2018 6:41 am

Raining 3's...

Image
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#692 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 20, 2018 7:00 am

It's el nino.

Won't be surprise to see another strong typhoon next month with a massive westerly wind burst forecast to develop late month to December. WPAC is a beast.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#693 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:55 am

Nearing December and models are looking quiet. Is this it for 2018 or will there be a surprise? December usually is one to watch during el nino especially those living in the Marianas and FSM.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#694 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:57 am

2019 typhoon season starts in just 5 weeks from now. :eek:
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#695 Postby vortextracker » Sat Nov 24, 2018 9:13 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/ARUuMe5
cmc thinks another is possible. Worth watching the other globals, descent convergence atm
above the wwb in the kelvin wave generation area.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#696 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Nov 24, 2018 10:15 pm

It's the CMC, CMC only got 98C right when 98C was already over the South China Sea :lol:
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#697 Postby vortextracker » Sun Nov 25, 2018 3:30 am

Hayabusa wrote:It's the CMC, CMC only got 98C right when 98C was already over the South China Sea :lol:


Did say also watch the other globals :wink: .Over the years i have seen the cmc get the dark horse right. It does use 4DVar scheme so yeah its always worth sneak peak. :ggreen:
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#698 Postby vortextracker » Sun Nov 25, 2018 6:44 pm

nav
Image
https://imgur.com/OS8gEDu



Image
https://imgur.com/NX9WnyW
pretty easy to see the area that is in question above the wwb in the kw/ga, for a seed,
if the model does verify. :larrow:
..................................................................................................................
0ver to you Hayabusa
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#699 Postby StruThiO » Sun Nov 25, 2018 9:01 pm

euro6208 wrote:2019 typhoon season starts in just 5 weeks from now. :eek:


Where does the time go? :lol:

Been an incredible year Pacificwide
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#700 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Nov 25, 2018 9:45 pm

vortextracker wrote:nav
https://i.imgur.com/OS8gEDu.gif?1
https://imgur.com/OS8gEDu



https://i.imgur.com/NX9WnyW.png
https://imgur.com/NX9WnyW
pretty easy to see the area that is in question above the wwb in the kw/ga, for a seed,
if the model does verify. :larrow:
..................................................................................................................
0ver to you Hayabusa

93W
Let us see as GFS and ECMWF keeps it weak and just dissipating unlike the NAVGEM and CMC :double:
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