2018 WPAC Season

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#701 Postby vortextracker » Sun Nov 25, 2018 11:20 pm

nav
https://i.imgur.com/OS8gEDu.gif?1
https://imgur.com/OS8gEDu



https://i.imgur.com/NX9WnyW.png
https://imgur.com/NX9WnyW
pretty easy to see the area that is in question above the wwb in the kw/ga, for a seed,
if the model does verify. :larrow:
..................................................................................................................

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#702 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:46 am

Last 2 runs, 00Z and 06Z, GFS showing another potential TC threatening the Marianas?

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#703 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:53 am

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Lowering pressures around the timeframe.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#704 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:28 pm

GFS getting more bullish on this system. EURO also starting to latch onto it although weak in vorticity.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#705 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 01, 2018 6:46 am

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Much stronger on approach to Guam.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#706 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:25 am

As usual, GFS is on and off on it.

EURO continues to be silent.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#707 Postby vortextracker » Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:17 am

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Being L/Range who knows, maybe or maybe not.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#708 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:38 am

NAVGEM, CMC also starting to pick up on this. They all agree that the recipient baby storm will emanate from a disturbance in the Central Pacific. Still a long way out.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#709 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:30 am

GFS's new peak for the forecasted system is now 966mb at 360 hours out.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#710 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:14 am

GFS continues to be the most robust. :double:

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#711 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:36 pm

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#712 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:37 pm

GFS seems to make the basin super busy with multiple systems developing along with this one. Of course. That's long range. :wink:
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#713 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:38 pm

ECMWF has nothing.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#714 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:53 pm

The high windshear seems to be prohibiting anything from forming in the short-term.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#715 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:11 am

This is the recipient about to enter the dateline.

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Last edited by euro6208 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#716 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:15 am

06Z GFS has some pretty significant deepening...934mb...with formation in just 150 hours. Big shift north of 00Z which had a track passing close to south of Guam.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#717 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:59 am

FV3 is also on board with development.
Either the GFS or the ECMWF is right on its forecast, even the latter's EPS has nothing or very weak.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#718 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:05 am

GFS trending stronger while EURO not budging. :eek:
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#719 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:22 pm

GFS now starting to suggest a recurve well east of the Marianas.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#720 Postby vortextracker » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:20 pm

eps ens have been hinting @ something for a few runs.

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https://imgur.com/lVWjYDW
Rain microwave east of Kiribati, likely the area the of model storm will come from if it verify s..
:darrow:


@156hrs
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https://imgur.com/W4sB7UB
:darrow:


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https://imgur.com/WCgdIGb
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