2018 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#741 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:46 pm

TyphoonNara wrote:JTWC upgraded the system to "Medium".

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.0N 180.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.2N 178.2E, APPROXIMATELY 680
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND A 100926Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DISORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SMALL POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH. 99C SITS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS), AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO
30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 99C WILL GENERALLY TRACK
WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AROUND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.



98C

The discussion thread is here ever since. Why post here?
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#742 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:47 pm

The other global models are now in a bit of an agreement with GFS on more activity.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#743 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:28 pm

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#744 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:49 am

Image

In Week-2, TC formation potential is elevated from the Philippines eastward to 150E along 10N, consistent with the MJO forecast to be over the Maritime Continent.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#745 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:29 pm

Starting from 2014, there have been December typhoons striking the Philippines each year.

2014: Typhoon Hagupit
2015: Typhoon Melor
2016: Typhoon Nock-ten
2017: Typhoon Tembin

Let's see will we have another December typhoon that strikes the Philippines this year.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#746 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:42 am

WPAC still on the loose for 2018 and it's already 19 days till the 2019 season. :eek:
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#747 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:04 am

2014 WPAC season was a below average season but it had 7 category 5s while 2018 WPAC season currently 6 :roll: . Can 2018 WPAC season still produce a category 5? I guess 1997 WPAC season is still number one on the spot for the most category 5s. Was 1997 WPAC season just wholly a natural occurrence or AGW has affected 1997 WPAC season? Then if the latter why 1997 WPAC season hasn't been beaten yet for over 20 years now?
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#748 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:37 am

Hayabusa wrote:2014 WPAC season was a below average season but it had 7 category 5s while 2018 WPAC season currently 6 :roll: . Can 2018 WPAC season still produce a category 5? I guess 1997 WPAC season is still number one on the spot for the most category 5s. Was 1997 WPAC season just wholly a natural occurrence or AGW has affected 1997 WPAC season? Then if the latter why 1997 WPAC season hasn't been beaten yet for over 20 years now?


It is quite possible that some intense storms in the 1997 season are overestimated by current dvorak standards. (We may never know though because of the lack of recon :() By today's standards, it is possible that the 1997 season only would have 7-8 cat 5 typhoons. In fact, some seasons in the 1990s contain the only few years that JTWC was suspected to overestimate storm intensities.

And in my opinion, a record that is holding for a very long time may not mean it has not naturally occurred. For example, the 1964 season to this day still holds the largest number of tropical storms and typhoons. But I guess we can all agree that the 1964 season was natural.
Last edited by TyphoonNara on Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#749 Postby NotoSans » Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:06 pm

Intensity estimates from JTWC were relatively higher during 1995 to 1997 when it started to incorporate ‘Digital Dvorak’ (DD) numbers. DD numbers are like raw-Ts in the current ADT algorithm, which generally overestimate intensity. Can refer to the ATCRs for more discussion on the DD technique.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#750 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:24 pm

Not much activity going on in the WPac.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#751 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 16, 2018 6:19 am

EURO has a couple strong disturbances moving through but no further development.

GFS same but we all know how aggressive they are. :lol:

Whatever activity should be between Guam and Vietnam.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#752 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:02 pm

EURO and GFS seems to be in agreement on 2 potential TC developing before year's end. GFS has it strengthening well into 2019.

Image
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#753 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:23 am

95W THREAD

Up for 1st system.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#754 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:26 am

EURO and GFS on the next possible system behind it.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#755 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:53 pm

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#756 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 23, 2018 9:09 am

96W THREAD

Up for system east of the Philippines that the models were developing.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#757 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 23, 2018 9:16 am

GFS has been pretty adamant on something developing around the region south of Guam in the first 2 weeks of next month but that will be for another thread. :wink:
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#758 Postby TyphoonNara » Sun Dec 23, 2018 9:48 am

MJO is forecasted to enter the region.

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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#759 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:09 am

I haven't looked at the other globals besides EURO but wow. Our first and even second system we might not have to wait long 2019!
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season

#760 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Dec 26, 2018 8:58 am

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