Hypothetical Hurricanes

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xtyphooncyclonex
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Hypothetical Hurricanes

#1 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:36 am

As you all know, I'm fascinated with tropical cyclones (alongside other unrelated stuff) and been such for the past several years. Hence, I was able to come up with creating my own hypothetical cyclones, mostly Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons, and seeing the potential impacts these storms may bring. I've also included a 2018 season projection for the North Atlantic here. They're inspired by actual seasons and as a result, they may be "realistic."

Below are some of my works. Note they may be unfinished

2041 Atlantic hurricane season. This is basically 2017 on steroids. Katrina repeat. Multiple Category 5 hurricanes strike the US as a result of unusually warm waters, high vertical instability and low wind shear. Record high 5 major hurricane strikes for the US and 8 major hurricanes for the Atlantic basin in total. ACE of roughly 345. Costliest and deadliest in recorded history. 15 storms, 11 hurricanes and 8 majors. Highest ACE per storm globally, close to 23.

http://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com ... yclonex%29

2022 Atlantic hurricane season. Features a streak of 10 hurricanes, similar to 2017. Hurricane Earl is basically a carbon copy of Andrew for South Florida and Louisiana, but worse. Earl is then succeeded by four more hurricanes that also hit Florida. 17 named storms, 14 hurricanes and 7 majors. ACE of roughly 362.

http://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com ... yclonex%29

2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Can be a prediction for next year. Features 23 named storms, only behind 2005. Features a streak of weak storms failing to attain hurricane strength yet having 7 majors and 3 Category 5s. Includes a hurricane similar to Ivan and Ike, which is an intense long tracker striking the Houston-Galveston area and attain cat 5 for a long time. Also includes the worst Florida hurricane since Andrew. ACE of roughly 262.

http://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com ... yclonex%29

Super Typhoon Choi-wan. Strongest tropical cyclone in recorded history, surpassing Tip and Patricia. Worst typhoon to ever strike the Philippines, shattering records held by Haiyan. An exceptionally large tropical cyclone in terms of diameter. Strikes Yap as a Category 5 before hammering Surigao, Southern Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Negros, Panay and Palawan over the Philippines and as a Category 2 over Ho Chi Minh/Saigon. Unprecedented damage and death toll. First category 5 to strike Metro Cebu and a major metropolitan area of over 2.5 million since Hurricane Andrew. [Metropolitan Miami had around 4.1 million inhabitants at the time]

http://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com ... n_Choi-wan
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REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

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Re: Hypothetical Hurricanes

#2 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:17 pm

My hypothetical "hyperactive" outcome for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, provided El Niño somehow fails to verify:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2731080#p2731080

In this case, 2018 becomes only the second season on record to officially reach the Greek alphabet, after 2005. A seasonal record of eight major hurricanes takes place. A record-tying seven hurricanes strike the contiguous United States, including four majors, of which two each hit FL and NC. The Caribbean is considerably more active than in 2018, with big hits to the Leeward and Windward Islands. Another Michael-type hurricane also strikes the Big Bend of FL, this time near St. Marks instead of Panama City. The MDR turns out to be exceptionally prolific, generating several long-trackers. Naturally, the seasonal ACE index ends up among the top five seasons' on record. Final numbers: 23 NS / 13 H / 8 MH, with an ACE index ≥ 1933's record of 259.

Caveat: this is not my currently favoured expectation for 2019. At this time, I anticipate El Niño and consequently an inactive season (9 NS / 3 H / 1 MH).
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Re: Hypothetical Hurricanes

#3 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:42 am

Shell Mound wrote:My hypothetical "hyperactive" outcome for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, provided El Niño somehow fails to verify:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2731080#p2731080

In this case, 2018 becomes only the second season on record to officially reach the Greek alphabet, after 2005. A seasonal record of eight major hurricanes takes place. A record-tying seven hurricanes strike the contiguous United States, including four majors, of which two each hit FL and NC. The Caribbean is considerably more active than in 2018, with big hits to the Leeward and Windward Islands. Another Michael-type hurricane also strikes the Big Bend of FL, this time near St. Marks instead of Panama City. The MDR turns out to be exceptionally prolific, generating several long-trackers. Naturally, the seasonal ACE index ends up among the top five seasons' on record. Final numbers: 23 NS / 13 H / 8 MH, with an ACE index ≥ 1933's record of 259.

Caveat: this is not my currently favoured expectation for 2019. At this time, I anticipate El Niño and consequently an inactive season (9 NS / 3 H / 1 MH).

Even if El Niño fails to develop and affect the 2019 Atlantic Season it’s been over 3 years since the last El Niño event. Wouldn’t that make it quite difficult to have yet another above average/hyper-active season?

We saw this same instance happen after the last trio of nearly identical (number-wise) above average seasons of 2010/2011/2012. 2013 turned out to be a dud, yes the pattern overall failed to flip over to summer but is that the whole story?
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Re: Hypothetical Hurricanes

#4 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:44 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:My hypothetical "hyperactive" outcome for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, provided El Niño somehow fails to verify:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2731080#p2731080

In this case, 2018 becomes only the second season on record to officially reach the Greek alphabet, after 2005. A seasonal record of eight major hurricanes takes place. A record-tying seven hurricanes strike the contiguous United States, including four majors, of which two each hit FL and NC. The Caribbean is considerably more active than in 2018, with big hits to the Leeward and Windward Islands. Another Michael-type hurricane also strikes the Big Bend of FL, this time near St. Marks instead of Panama City. The MDR turns out to be exceptionally prolific, generating several long-trackers. Naturally, the seasonal ACE index ends up among the top five seasons' on record. Final numbers: 23 NS / 13 H / 8 MH, with an ACE index ≥ 1933's record of 259.

Caveat: this is not my currently favoured expectation for 2019. At this time, I anticipate El Niño and consequently an inactive season (9 NS / 3 H / 1 MH).

Even if El Niño fails to develop and affect the 2019 Atlantic Season it’s been over 3 years since the last El Niño event. Wouldn’t that make it quite difficult to have yet another above average/hyper-active season?

We saw this same instance happen after the last trio of nearly identical (number-wise) above average seasons of 2010/2011/2012. 2013 turned out to be a dud, yes the pattern overall failed to flip over to summer but is that the whole story?

Unless El Niño briefly shows up in the winter/spring 2019
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

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Re: Hypothetical Hurricanes

#5 Postby Hammy » Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:31 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:My hypothetical "hyperactive" outcome for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, provided El Niño somehow fails to verify:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2731080#p2731080

In this case, 2018 becomes only the second season on record to officially reach the Greek alphabet, after 2005. A seasonal record of eight major hurricanes takes place. A record-tying seven hurricanes strike the contiguous United States, including four majors, of which two each hit FL and NC. The Caribbean is considerably more active than in 2018, with big hits to the Leeward and Windward Islands. Another Michael-type hurricane also strikes the Big Bend of FL, this time near St. Marks instead of Panama City. The MDR turns out to be exceptionally prolific, generating several long-trackers. Naturally, the seasonal ACE index ends up among the top five seasons' on record. Final numbers: 23 NS / 13 H / 8 MH, with an ACE index ≥ 1933's record of 259.

Caveat: this is not my currently favoured expectation for 2019. At this time, I anticipate El Niño and consequently an inactive season (9 NS / 3 H / 1 MH).

Even if El Niño fails to develop and affect the 2019 Atlantic Season it’s been over 3 years since the last El Niño event. Wouldn’t that make it quite difficult to have yet another above average/hyper-active season?

We saw this same instance happen after the last trio of nearly identical (number-wise) above average seasons of 2010/2011/2012. 2013 turned out to be a dud, yes the pattern overall failed to flip over to summer but is that the whole story?


Quite--global activity was down that year (including the EPAC as well) especially up until about mid-October.
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