Trough over the subtropical central Atlantic (Now Invest 95L)

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CyclonicFury
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Trough over the subtropical central Atlantic (Now Invest 95L)

#1 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:39 pm

2 PM TWO:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031724
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form about 1000
miles east of Bermuda over the weekend. This low could then
acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics as it moves to
the north-northeast over the central Atlantic next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

A little shocked to see this in the TWO. Probably won't amount to much, but interesting nonetheless.
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AJC3
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Re: Trough over the subtropical central Atlantic

#2 Postby AJC3 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 2:24 pm

This is essentially an INVEST 94L redux.

viewtopic.php?f=85&t=119360

It's the same, persistent area of disturbed weather along a surface trough in the central ATLC that was carried in the TWO early this week, until it was dropped on Wednesday morning. There's been a weak XT low along the southern end of that trough has been drifting SW most of the week. It looks like it will stall, maybe get a bit of a baroclinic boost as it moves NE over the next 3-4 days as an XTC.
I don't see it becoming a STC/TC.

In fact, if you look at the western half of the Atlantic, it's a veritable cornucopia of small XT lows/cyclones - especially that hideous three-vort eyesore E-NE of the Bahamas.
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Re: Trough over the subtropical central Atlantic

#3 Postby AJC3 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 7:51 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 032319
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite imagery indicates that a weak area of low pressure has
formed about 1000 miles southeast of Bermuda, accompanied by
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This low could
acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics as it moves to
the north-northeast over the central Atlantic this weekend and
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Image
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Re: Trough over the subtropical central Atlantic

#4 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:30 pm

Now Invest 95L

AL, 95, 2017110400, , BEST, 0, 235N, 530W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041, SPAWNINVEST, al712017 to al952017,

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119369
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