2018 NIO Cyclone Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 837
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#1 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:08 am

The RSMC responsible for this basin is the India Meteorological Department(IMD), while the Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC) releases unofficial advisories.

In the Indian Ocean north of the equator, tropical cyclones can form throughout the year on either side of India. On the east side is the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea, and on the west side is the Arabian Sea. Water temperatures in the Arabian Sea are typically warm enough to allow for tropical cyclogenesis year round, although strong wind shear from the monsoon trough prevents formation in the summer months and limits intensity other times of the year.
Within this basin, a tropical cyclone is assigned a name when it is judged to have reached cyclonic storm intensity with winds of 62 km/h (40 mph). The names were selected by members of the ESCAP/WMO panel on Tropical Cyclones between 2000 and May 2004, before the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center in New Delhi started to assign names in September 2004. There is no retirement of tropical cyclone names in this basin as the list of names is only scheduled to be used once before a new list of names is drawn up. Should a named tropical cyclone move into the basin from the Western Pacific, then it will retain its original name.
(Wikipedia)
Image
Next 16 names: Ockhi Sagar Mekunu Daye Luban Titli Gaja Phethai Fani Vayu Hikaa Kyarr Maha Bulbul Pawan Amphan

IMD TC intensity scale:
Image

Since only 2 months are left for this year, and it's unlikely that we will see that much TC activity in the NIO during these 2 months, I think it's okay to discuss the 2018 season here as well...
Last edited by Imran_doomhaMwx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 837
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#2 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:19 am

A broad area of disturbed weather over the southern Bay of Bengal needs to be closely watched for possible further development during the rest of this week and next week... It is possible that the weak 29W will merge or get absorbed into this feature on the next few days...
The models vary on how fast and strong will development be, with the GFS, CMC, and HWRF being the most aggressive... The arrival of a favorable MJO signal in the area, and according to the CPC, an equatorial Rossby wave, could increase the chances of further development...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

Image
Image
Image

Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 837
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#3 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:32 am

Hmmm... GFS just being GFS? :P

Image
Image
0 likes   

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#4 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:47 am

Image
Model is unified and only goes out to 144hrs .
0 likes   

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 837
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#5 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:24 am

Multiple vortices/circulations appear to exist within that area of disturbed weather over the southern and central BoB, and it remains to be seen which one of these becomes dominant and possibly develops further, but the global models are hinting that it could be coming from the vicinity of Sri Lanka...

Image
Image
Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 837
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#6 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Nov 11, 2017 9:32 pm

Invest 90B, off the east coast of South India...

The global models don't develop it much, most probably a Tropical Depression or minimal TS at most...
0 likes   

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 837
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#7 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:15 am

The Bay of Bengal is convectively active lately. A LPA is located over the southern Bay of Bengal according to the IMD.
This system is likely to remain weak, most probably not stronger than a Tropical Depression, as it approaches and moves over Sri Lanka and India's Tamil Nadu state during the next couple of days. Heavy rainfall will still be a threat to the mentioned areas, however.


Image
Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 837
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#8 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:05 pm

GFS has been showing a TC during the last week of Nov or early Dec over the Andaman Sea / Bay of Bengal, which begins as a disturbance over the SCS or Gulf of Thailand.
The 12Z ECMWF also develops TC near the Andaman-Nicobar islands, but I'm not sure if the incipient disturbance also originates from the WPAC.
Both models have it eventually striking India.

Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 837
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#9 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Nov 27, 2017 5:14 am

GFS and ECMWF are still showing TC development over the Andaman Sea / Bay of Bengal... This feature is also now appearing on CMC and NAVGEM.
These models also favor an eventual landfall somewhere along the east coast of India, but of course it's still too early to be sure.

Image

It appears that a low-latitude LPA may form between Borneo and Peninsula Malaysia, and cross the latter or Southern Thailand on the next few days. Likely the candidate for what the models are showing.

Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 837
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#10 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:54 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:GFS and ECMWF are still showing TC development over the Andaman Sea / Bay of Bengal... This feature is also now appearing on CMC and NAVGEM.
These models also favor an eventual landfall somewhere along the east coast of India, but of course it's still too early to be sure.

It appears that a low-latitude LPA may form between Borneo and Peninsula Malaysia, and cross the latter or Southern Thailand on the next few days. Likely the candidate for what the models are showing.

INVEST 93W has been designated between Borneo and Peninsular Malaysia.
0 likes   

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 837
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#11 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:07 am

Tropical Storm Ockhi near the southwestern coast of India moving towards the Arabian Sea, and Invest 93W near/over the Malay Peninsula.

Image
Elektro-L1 VIS
11-30-2017 8:30am UTC
0 likes   

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 837
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#12 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:23 am

The first NIO Invest this 2018 season...
INVEST 90B thread

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
WAcyclone
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 180
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2017 1:56 pm

Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#13 Postby WAcyclone » Thu May 10, 2018 3:41 pm

The operational ECMWF run as well as the EPS are consistently developing a cyclone in five to six days which moves through the Gulf of Aden. This alone would already be very unusual since only a handful systems have ever been recorded entering the Gulf. However, it is even more interesting that the predicted track would take the system through the entire Gulf of Aden until making landfall in Djibouti (!) at tropical storm strength. Needless to say, no tropical cyclone is currently known to have impacted Djibouti.

It's also worth noting that the GFS is not showing any kind of development (even the GEFS doesn't have a single member with a low in the area!), so we basically have the complete opposite situation compared to the Carribean where only the GFS/GEFS develops a storm but the ECMWF and EPS doesn't. This will certainly be interesting to follow...

Image

Image

Source: weather.us
1 likes   

BYG Jacob
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 430
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:46 pm

Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#14 Postby BYG Jacob » Thu May 10, 2018 3:46 pm

A tropical storm into the gulf of Aden? Sure, why not?
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4121
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#15 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu May 10, 2018 6:04 pm

It's rare, but has happened before. In fact, it happened twice in 2015 with both Chapala and Megh.
1 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
WAcyclone
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 180
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2017 1:56 pm

Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#16 Postby WAcyclone » Fri May 11, 2018 3:29 am

1900hurricane wrote:It's rare, but has happened before. In fact, it happened twice in 2015 with both Chapala and Megh.


Yes, there have only been six cyclones entering the Gulf of Aden on record with two of them occurring within a week in 2015. That sure was a bizarre event. An unnamed storm from 1984 is currently the only system known to have moved through the western parts of the Gulf.
1 likes   

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 837
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#17 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri May 11, 2018 5:32 am

Still on the latest(05/11 00Z) ECMWF run.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 837
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#18 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat May 12, 2018 5:08 am

The ECMWF model and its ensembles remain rather consistent, and time frame is getting closer and closer. Also, the model still has it continuing to track west into the western portions of the gulf!
Other global models, including GFS, are still not so enthusiastic, but conditions may indeed become favorable for development this coming week as a favorable MJO signal moves through the region.

Image
Image
Image

Image
0 likes   

BYG Jacob
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 430
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:46 pm

Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#19 Postby BYG Jacob » Sat May 12, 2018 12:28 pm

Looks like we're gonna be in for a weird year in the tropics.
0 likes   

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 837
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#20 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun May 13, 2018 9:51 pm

Invest 91A has been designated over the southern Arabian Sea.

Image
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Monsoonjr99, StormChaser75, xtyphooncyclonex and 14 guests