2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

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Imran_doomhaMwx
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2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#1 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:08 am

The RSMC responsible for this basin is the India Meteorological Department(IMD), while the Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC) releases unofficial advisories.

In the Indian Ocean north of the equator, tropical cyclones can form throughout the year on either side of India. On the east side is the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea, and on the west side is the Arabian Sea. Water temperatures in the Arabian Sea are typically warm enough to allow for tropical cyclogenesis year round, although strong wind shear from the monsoon trough prevents formation in the summer months and limits intensity other times of the year.
Within this basin, a tropical cyclone is assigned a name when it is judged to have reached cyclonic storm intensity with winds of 62 km/h (40 mph). The names were selected by members of the ESCAP/WMO panel on Tropical Cyclones between 2000 and May 2004, before the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center in New Delhi started to assign names in September 2004. There is no retirement of tropical cyclone names in this basin as the list of names is only scheduled to be used once before a new list of names is drawn up. Should a named tropical cyclone move into the basin from the Western Pacific, then it will retain its original name.
(Wikipedia)
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Next 16 names: Ockhi Sagar Mekunu Daye Luban Titli Gaja Phethai Fani Vayu Hikaa Kyarr Maha Bulbul Pawan Amphan

IMD TC intensity scale:
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Since only 2 months are left for this year, and it's unlikely that we will see that much TC activity in the NIO during these 2 months, I think it's okay to discuss the 2018 season here as well...
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Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#2 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:19 am

A broad area of disturbed weather over the southern Bay of Bengal needs to be closely watched for possible further development during the rest of this week and next week... It is possible that the weak 29W will merge or get absorbed into this feature on the next few days...
The models vary on how fast and strong will development be, with the GFS, CMC, and HWRF being the most aggressive... The arrival of a favorable MJO signal in the area, and according to the CPC, an equatorial Rossby wave, could increase the chances of further development...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

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Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#3 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:32 am

Hmmm... GFS just being GFS? :P

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Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#4 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:47 am

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Model is unified and only goes out to 144hrs .
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Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#5 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:24 am

Multiple vortices/circulations appear to exist within that area of disturbed weather over the southern and central BoB, and it remains to be seen which one of these becomes dominant and possibly develops further, but the global models are hinting that it could be coming from the vicinity of Sri Lanka...

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Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#6 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Nov 11, 2017 9:32 pm

Invest 90B, off the east coast of South India...

The global models don't develop it much, most probably a Tropical Depression or minimal TS at most...
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Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#7 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:15 am

The Bay of Bengal is convectively active lately. A LPA is located over the southern Bay of Bengal according to the IMD.
This system is likely to remain weak, most probably not stronger than a Tropical Depression, as it approaches and moves over Sri Lanka and India's Tamil Nadu state during the next couple of days. Heavy rainfall will still be a threat to the mentioned areas, however.


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Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#8 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:05 pm

GFS has been showing a TC during the last week of Nov or early Dec over the Andaman Sea / Bay of Bengal, which begins as a disturbance over the SCS or Gulf of Thailand.
The 12Z ECMWF also develops TC near the Andaman-Nicobar islands, but I'm not sure if the incipient disturbance also originates from the WPAC.
Both models have it eventually striking India.

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Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#9 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Nov 27, 2017 5:14 am

GFS and ECMWF are still showing TC development over the Andaman Sea / Bay of Bengal... This feature is also now appearing on CMC and NAVGEM.
These models also favor an eventual landfall somewhere along the east coast of India, but of course it's still too early to be sure.

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It appears that a low-latitude LPA may form between Borneo and Peninsula Malaysia, and cross the latter or Southern Thailand on the next few days. Likely the candidate for what the models are showing.

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Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#10 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:54 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:GFS and ECMWF are still showing TC development over the Andaman Sea / Bay of Bengal... This feature is also now appearing on CMC and NAVGEM.
These models also favor an eventual landfall somewhere along the east coast of India, but of course it's still too early to be sure.

It appears that a low-latitude LPA may form between Borneo and Peninsula Malaysia, and cross the latter or Southern Thailand on the next few days. Likely the candidate for what the models are showing.

INVEST 93W has been designated between Borneo and Peninsular Malaysia.
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Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#11 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:07 am

Tropical Storm Ockhi near the southwestern coast of India moving towards the Arabian Sea, and Invest 93W near/over the Malay Peninsula.

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Elektro-L1 VIS
11-30-2017 8:30am UTC
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