2018 NIO Cyclone Season

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Imran_doomhaMwx
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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#21 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue May 15, 2018 3:22 am

The ECMWF develops another system over the Arabian sea after 91A.

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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#22 Postby Twisted-core » Tue May 15, 2018 4:40 am

EPS ens currently have a sniff for a second system in that basin.
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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#23 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat May 19, 2018 6:20 am

Invest 92A thread... Arabian Sea system that the global models develop just after Sagar.

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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#24 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat May 19, 2018 7:58 am

The North Indian basin this Saturday as captured by Russia's Elektro-L(GOMS) geostationary satellite.

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Elektro-L RGB Satellite Imagery
05-19-2018 10:00am UTC
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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#25 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun May 27, 2018 7:33 am

The Arabian Sea sure is busy lately...
Invest 94A

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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#26 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed May 30, 2018 2:48 am

After a rather active period of tropical activity in the North Indian Ocean during the last couple of weeks, the basin is expected to be quiet again. The arrival of the SW Monsoon in the region typically "shuts down" or suppresses tropical cyclone formation/development in the basin for a few months.

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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#27 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Jun 09, 2018 5:53 am

IMD:
A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED AT 1200UTC OF YESTERDAY, THE 8TH JUNE 2018 OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL & NEIGHBOUHOOD. IT LAY OVER
NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING BANGLADESH COAST AT 0300UTC OF TODAY, THE 9TH JUNE,2018. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO BECOME WELL MARKED
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS AND MOVE TOWARDS BANGLADESH COAST.

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The GFS and ECMWF models show this system moving into Bangladesh on the next 24hrs or so.

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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#28 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Sep 29, 2018 7:48 pm

With SW Monsoon season coming to an end, if it hasn't ended yet, looks like it's time to closely watch the basin again. The GFS and ECMWF are already hinting potential TC activity over the Arabian Sea this coming October.
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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#29 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:57 am

Good support from the global models of a TC developing over the Arabian Sea later this week to early next week.

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This coincides with the wet-phase MJO passing over the basin.

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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#30 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:28 pm

Guidancr are really persistent in developing this Arabian Cyclone (which isn't surprising since it's October and it would coincide with a passage of the wet phase MJO as stated above)
GFS has gone nuts again (18z) with a sub-900 cyclone recurving towards Pakistan. (10 03 -06z run actually modeled a Karachi howler)
Euro's is more WMW towards Oman.

This is something to watch in the coming days
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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#31 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:22 pm

I think the area to watch now is the are of Convection in SW India.
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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#32 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:44 am

Invest 99A has been designated.

Some models are also hinting of a possible Bay of Bengal system.
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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#33 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:11 am

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 05.10.2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 05.10.2018 BASED ON
0300 UTC OF 05.10.2018.


BAY OF BENGAL:
A LOW PRESSURE AREA (LPA) IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL
AROUND 8TH OCTOBER 2018. IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED AND MOVE
TOWARDS ODISHA & ADJOINING NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS DURING
SUBSEQUENT 72 HOURS.
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BOB AND ANDAMAN SEA.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:
24 HOURS | 24-48 HOURS | 48-72 HOURS | 72-96 HOURS | 96-120 HOURS
NIL | NIL | NIL | NIL | LOW


ARABIAN SEA:

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF YESTERDAY’S CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST
ARABIAN SEA (AS) AND ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP & MALDIVES AREA, A LOW
PRESSURE AREA (LPA) HAS FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST AS AND NEIGHBOURHOOD AT
0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 5TH OCTOBER 2018. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO BECOME WELL
MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SAME REGION DURING NEXT 12 HOURS.
FURTHER, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION AND MOVE
NORTHWESTWARDS DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. IT IS ALSO VERY LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM SUBSEQUENTLY AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS OMAN COAST.
BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST AS & ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION. ALSO, SCATTERED
LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION
LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL & SOUTH AS, COMORIN AND GULF OF MANNAR.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:
24 HOURS | 24-48 HOURS | 48-72 HOURS | 72-96 HOURS | 96-120 HOURS
NIL | MODERATE | HIGH | HIGH | HIGH
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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#34 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:10 am

Two systems currently being warned by IMD.
Cyclonic Storm Luban
Depression (Invest 90B)

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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#35 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:43 am

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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#36 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:59 am

WPAC made all the other NHEM basins jealous so they're all trying to prove they can hang.
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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#37 Postby KWT » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:26 am

How ironic given the WPAC had all those storms that it will be the only one not to have broken it's average seasonal ACE
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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#38 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:59 am

KWT wrote:How ironic given the WPAC had all those storms that it will be the only one not to have broken it's average seasonal ACE



Whuuut? WPAC's ACE is above or close to average right now plus WPAC's just tanking bro, look at Emanuel's MPI for the basin. Once the MJO moves over in Late Oct to Nov - it will be the greatest show on Earth ( which kinda makes me a bit nervous)
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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#39 Postby KWT » Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:10 pm

mrbagyo wrote:
KWT wrote:How ironic given the WPAC had all those storms that it will be the only one not to have broken it's average seasonal ACE



Whuuut? WPAC's ACE is above or close to average right now plus WPAC's just tanking bro, look at Emanuel's MPI for the basin. All the rest will be above very shortly. Once the MJO moves over in Late Oct to Nov - it will be the greatest show on Earth ( which kinda makes me a bit nervous)


Oh I know, just saying it's the only basin to be below it SEASONAL average (ie, if the season stopped now).
I know it's above average for the time of year and I'm pretty certain it will be staying that way as you say!
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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season

#40 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:39 pm

Invest/TD 98W over the Gulf of Thailand (WPac basin) is expected to enter the Andaman Sea within the next couple of days.
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