Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#21 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Fri Nov 17, 2017 2:49 pm

Nice hot towers fired up during the last few hors near the center with cloud tops around 60 Celsius. If this convection continue, the cyclone may will get an official (Invest) classification from the NOAA SAB at 00 UTC.

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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#22 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Fri Nov 17, 2017 5:50 pm

The curent ASCAT pass show a well-defined tropical wind field and 40 knots maximum winds on the west side of th circulation. Due to the small size of the cyclone and the improvement since the measurement, it is likely around 45-50 knots now.

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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#23 Postby TheAustinMan » Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:22 pm

Looking quite well organized at the moment in the Ionian Sea. Cloud tops are fairly cold.

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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#24 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:23 pm

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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#25 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:38 pm

a user asserts that this can not be a tropical cyclone because the warm-Core in diagram phase does not reach 500 hpa in high. Does not it seem to me that 0phelia 17, Vince 05, Grace 09, Alex 16 and other tropical cyclones obtained from tropical transition have warm core at 500hpa in high? :?: :eek:
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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#26 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:49 pm

DanieleItalyRm wrote:a user asserts that this can not be a tropical cyclone because the warm-Core in diagram phase does not reach 500 hpa in high. Does not it seem to me that 0phelia 17, Vince 05, Grace 09, Alex 16 and other tropical cyclones obtained from tropical transition have warm core at 500hpa in high? :?: :eek:



This is a tropical storm with a well defined eye developing at this moment with winds probably near 55 knots.

There's no question that this is warm core! The structure gives it away.
Last edited by Sciencerocks on Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#27 Postby Alyono » Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:50 pm

that's a TS now
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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#28 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Sat Nov 18, 2017 1:00 am

Tropical and subtropical cyclones in the Mediterranean Sea never named and followed. Only the Sab followed someone. Unofficial names such as Tlc (tropical like cyclones) or Medicane were produced by obsolete meteorological studies of the 80s and 90s. This confuses many people, including meteorologists. It makes you think of a different phenomenon. But cyclone systems are the same in all world. These cyclones are just tropical systems obtained from tropical transitions just like Karl 1980, Vince 2005, Grace 2009, Alex 2016. When a tropical cyclone derives from an extratropical cyclone over the Subtropical Atlantic and over cooler water of 20-24 ° C it is called "tropical cyclone" (Vince, Grace, Alex etc). When this happens over the Mediterranean (same latitude and conditions) it is called "tropical Like cyclone" (tlc or medicane); This is incoherent.. In fact, they are the same phenomena, only the geographic location changes. Unfortunately without any tropical alarm here, in Italy, Spain and Greece do not pay much attention. Here, it is treated as normal bad weather.
Will Weaver: "France calls it a "thundery low" while Greece calls it an "extended low". Many call "Tlc" or "Medicane". It's pretty clearly a developing tropical cyclone".
If there were possible tropical alarms, civil protection would give more importance. So we have alarms for Atlantic tropical systems (even weak) that sometimes do not hit any coasts, but we have no alarms for possible tropical systems on densely populated coasts like ours. Their development often creates floods, damages and causalities.
Gary Padgett: "If these Medditerranean systems are tropical cyclones, Then they should be identified as such for the sake of consistent global TC climatology".
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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#29 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:37 am

DanieleItalyRm wrote:a user asserts that this can not be a tropical cyclone because the warm-Core in diagram phase does not reach 500 hpa in high. Does not it seem to me that 0phelia 17, Vince 05, Grace 09, Alex 16 and other tropical cyclones obtained from tropical transition have warm core at 500hpa in high? :?: :eek:


It has warm core at 500 hPa, so it is obviously a tropical cyclone.
It is surprising to me that NOAA SAB did not classified it to at least an Invest.

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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#30 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:53 am

Alyono is a Senior Tropical Meteorologist,his opinion is it's now a tropical storm.
That is good enough no need to second guess.
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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#31 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Sat Nov 18, 2017 3:40 am

Vince_and_Grace_fan wrote:
It is surprising to me that NOAA SAB did not classified it to at least an Invest.

they had already said they would no longer follow the systems in the Mediterranean from last year. even tcf probabilities no longer emit on the Mediterranean, and this saw probability the day before the Mediterranean cyclone would form. however on their site they hold the Mediterranean basin as a possible formation basin. Can not anyone send email to sab-noaa?
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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#32 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:27 am

DanieleItalyRm wrote:they had already said they would no longer follow the systems in the Mediterranean from last year. even tcf probabilities no longer emit on the Mediterranean, and this saw probability the day before the Mediterranean cyclone would form. however on their site they hold the Mediterranean basin as a possible formation basin. Can not anyone send email to sab-noaa?


Yes, I also saw that message last year, but they planned this for another basins too (for example the Pacifics) and later they continued the monitoring yet. So I don't think this is the reason.
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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#33 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Nov 18, 2017 6:40 am

ASCAT Metop-A caught the system again @ around 09Z today(Nov 18)... Still a TROPICAL storm!

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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#34 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Nov 18, 2017 7:51 am

Medicane Numa as seen by NASA's TERRA satellite today(Nov 18)...

Original/High-Res image: https://goo.gl/NhBmUw

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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#35 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:04 am

Convection remains very shallow. I've been plotting surface obs in the region. The air temperature is in the upper 50s to about 64 degrees. Coastal stations to the east of the low are reporting 5-10 kt winds, so not much coastal wind impact yet. It could have 35-40 kt winds. Is it really purely tropical? Would such a system have the potential to strengthen like a true tropical storm? Perhaps the shallow convection limits strengthening potential? Too bad it's a bit far east for recon...
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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#36 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sat Nov 18, 2017 10:10 am

wxman57 wrote:Convection remains very shallow. I've been plotting surface obs in the region. The air temperature is in the upper 50s to about 64 degrees. Coastal stations to the east of the low are reporting 5-10 kt winds, so not much coastal wind impact yet. It could have 35-40 kt winds. Is it really purely tropical? Would such a system have the potential to strengthen like a true tropical storm? Perhaps the shallow convection limits strengthening potential? Too bad it's a bit far east for recon...


Deeper convection with cloud tops around -50, -60 °C redeveloped during the last 2 hours, however only on the eastern and northern side of the cyclone. I think the relatively cool water (along with the warming upper troposphere) and the incoming drier airmass from west (which is visible on the airmass satelite imagery http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/AIRMASS/EASTERNEUROPE/index.htm ) are the main reasons that the cyclone didn't strengthened further after the night. But in my oppinion this is a tropical cyclone despite these factors (which cause weakening in case of every other tropical cyclones).
Last edited by Vince_and_Grace_fan on Sat Nov 18, 2017 10:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#37 Postby WAcyclone » Sat Nov 18, 2017 10:12 am

Here is a very interesting graphic I found on twitter which shows all tropical storm and hurricane tracks within the Mediterranean Sea from 1982-2006 compared with the current position of Numa:

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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#38 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Sat Nov 18, 2017 1:03 pm

New convection in the center now
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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#39 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:58 pm

The latest ASCAT pass captured only the east side of the cyclone, but still shows 30 knots winds there as yesterday evening and today morning, so it is likely that on the west side still there are TS-force winds (at least 35 knots).
The cyclone is now about to make landfall on the westernmost Greek islands.

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Re: Possible tropical/subtropical development over the Mediterranean Sea

#40 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 18, 2017 8:38 pm

Center moving inland now. Stations about 30-35nm north and south of landfall reporting peak wind about 20 mph. Not much to it.
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