Will Hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico landfall be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

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Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or not?

Poll ended at Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:40 pm

Yes
14
48%
No
15
52%
 
Total votes: 29

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cycloneye
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Will Hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico landfall be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:40 pm

Preliminary data from the NWS of San Juan has Maria making landfall at 155 mph only shy of Cat 5.It will take a few weeks IMO that the final report will be released but we can have good discussions and vote in the poll. Down at the end of post there is a great YouTube video from chaser Jose Garcia from near the landfall area. Poll will be open until December 17 at 8:40 PM AST. Voted yes.

http://www.weather.gov/sju/maria2017

Image

http://www.weather.gov/images/sju/analy ... tivity.gif

Photos of the damage.
:darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

http://www.weather.gov/sju/maria2017

Great video from chaser Jose Garcia.
:darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9intpM ... e=youtu.be
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#2 Postby Alyono » Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:Preliminary data from the NWS of San Juan has Maria making landfall at 155 mph only shy of Cat 5.It will take a few weeks IMO that the final report will be released but we can have good discussions and vote in the poll. Down at the end of post there is a great YouTube video from chaser Jose Garcia from near the landfall area. Poll will be open until December 17 at 8:40 PM AST. Voted yes.

http://www.weather.gov/sju/maria2017

Image

http://www.weather.gov/images/sju/analy ... tivity.gif

Photos of the damage.
:darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

http://www.weather.gov/sju/maria2017

Great video from chaser Jose Garcia.
:darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9intpM ... e=youtu.be



no evidence. The eyewall replacement actually did weaken it slightly, unlike the ones with Harvey and Irma that did nothing at all to the intensity
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:18 pm

I agree...I think it stays cat 4. In fact, I could see it nudged down slightly (my best estimate is 130 kt, +/- 5 kt).

I know the SFMR readings were coming down, and the last pass about 2 1/2 hours before landfall supported the 135 kt intensity. However, the pressure appeared to rise some more between the last pass around 0745Z (917mb) and landfall around 1015Z. There was decent data from two storm chasers of 929mb (on the fringe of the eye with very strong winds) and 926mb (just inside the eye with moderate winds). That supports a landfall pressure in the 921-924 range. I would split the difference and go with 923mb. That rise in pressure also lends itself to slight additional weakening. Make no mistake, though, it was still a VERY intense storm...
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#4 Postby J_J99 » Mon Nov 27, 2017 10:19 pm

Radar tells a story of a storm getting its act together right at landfall. While not obvious on visible or infared it was obvious on the radar that the EWRC was all but complete. It would not surprise me if it restrengthened slightly back up to a Cat 5 at landfall, losing radar data of the storm at 5:30 am Puerto Rico time made it very difficult to tell what happened to the storm right at landfall (Went out a couple of hours before landfall) but the EWRC was complete and the radar was getting WAY more intense nearing landfall before losing transmission.

Just like IMHO Matthew was near or at CAT 5 intensity at landfall in Haiti, something we will never know for certain. Or how Katrina IMHO was a 130 mph Cat 4 at Buras landfall. I believe reanalysis in the next couple of decades will tell the true story.

But I agree, it was most likely a Cat 5 at landfall.
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#5 Postby Alyono » Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:19 am

J_J99 wrote:Radar tells a story of a storm getting its act together right at landfall. While not obvious on visible or infared it was obvious on the radar that the EWRC was all but complete. It would not surprise me if it restrengthened slightly back up to a Cat 5 at landfall, losing radar data of the storm at 5:30 am Puerto Rico time made it very difficult to tell what happened to the storm right at landfall (Went out a couple of hours before landfall) but the EWRC was complete and the radar was getting WAY more intense nearing landfall before losing transmission.

Just like IMHO Matthew was near or at CAT 5 intensity at landfall in Haiti, something we will never know for certain. Or how Katrina IMHO was a 130 mph Cat 4 at Buras landfall. I believe reanalysis in the next couple of decades will tell the true story.

But I agree, it was most likely a Cat 5 at landfall.


If Kartina is reanalyzed, the winds will be lowered to 100 kts as that is all the data justified at Buras landfall
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#6 Postby J_J99 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:27 am

Alyono wrote:
J_J99 wrote:Radar tells a story of a storm getting its act together right at landfall. While not obvious on visible or infared it was obvious on the radar that the EWRC was all but complete. It would not surprise me if it restrengthened slightly back up to a Cat 5 at landfall, losing radar data of the storm at 5:30 am Puerto Rico time made it very difficult to tell what happened to the storm right at landfall (Went out a couple of hours before landfall) but the EWRC was complete and the radar was getting WAY more intense nearing landfall before losing transmission.

Just like IMHO Matthew was near or at CAT 5 intensity at landfall in Haiti, something we will never know for certain. Or how Katrina IMHO was a 130 mph Cat 4 at Buras landfall. I believe reanalysis in the next couple of decades will tell the true story.

But I agree, it was most likely a Cat 5 at landfall.


If Kartina is reanalyzed, the winds will be lowered to 100 kts as that is all the data justified at Buras landfall

Grand isle on the weak western eyewall of the system was getting cat 3 winds before it stopped recording approximately 1 hour and 45 minutes before the minimum pressure observed. NHC explicitly stated in its post season analysis it could have been a cat 4 right at landfall with cat 4 winds possibly impacting the coast of plaquimines parish but data was too inconclusive with no reliable wind reports near area of first landfall to support 115 kts due to most of them being destroyed.
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#7 Postby Alyono » Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:31 am

J_J99 wrote:
Alyono wrote:
J_J99 wrote:Radar tells a story of a storm getting its act together right at landfall. While not obvious on visible or infared it was obvious on the radar that the EWRC was all but complete. It would not surprise me if it restrengthened slightly back up to a Cat 5 at landfall, losing radar data of the storm at 5:30 am Puerto Rico time made it very difficult to tell what happened to the storm right at landfall (Went out a couple of hours before landfall) but the EWRC was complete and the radar was getting WAY more intense nearing landfall before losing transmission.

Just like IMHO Matthew was near or at CAT 5 intensity at landfall in Haiti, something we will never know for certain. Or how Katrina IMHO was a 130 mph Cat 4 at Buras landfall. I believe reanalysis in the next couple of decades will tell the true story.

But I agree, it was most likely a Cat 5 at landfall.


If Kartina is reanalyzed, the winds will be lowered to 100 kts as that is all the data justified at Buras landfall

Grand isle on the weak western eyewall of the system was getting cat 3 winds before it stopped recording approximately 1 hour and 45 minutes before the minimum pressure observed. NHC explicitly stated in its post season analysis it could have been a cat 4 right at landfall with cat 4 winds possibly impacting the coast of plaquimines parish but data was too inconclusive with no reliable wind reports near area of first landfall to support 115 kts due to most of them being destroyed.


Also from the NHC TCR

"The strongest surface (10 m) wind measured by dropwindsonde on the morning of 29
August was 99 kt from two separate sondes. "

The strong winds did not make it to the surface. Kartina seemed to undergo a similar evolution as did Lili

Back to Maria, while it weakened, unfortunately, it kept producing very strong winds at the surface. I do not think that it weakened any further from the 135 kts a few hours before landfall. It's EWRC seemed to have completed just as it was moving onshore. Not enough time for it to regain cat 5 status, however.
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#8 Postby J_J99 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:40 am

Alyono wrote:
J_J99 wrote:
Alyono wrote:
If Kartina is reanalyzed, the winds will be lowered to 100 kts as that is all the data justified at Buras landfall

Grand isle on the weak western eyewall of the system was getting cat 3 winds before it stopped recording approximately 1 hour and 45 minutes before the minimum pressure observed. NHC explicitly stated in its post season analysis it could have been a cat 4 right at landfall with cat 4 winds possibly impacting the coast of plaquimines parish but data was too inconclusive with no reliable wind reports near area of first landfall to support 115 kts due to most of them being destroyed.


Also from the NHC TCR

"The strongest surface (10 m) wind measured by dropwindsonde on the morning of 29
August was 99 kt from two separate sondes. "

The strong winds did not make it to the surface. Kartina seemed to undergo a similar evolution as did Lili

Back to Maria, while it weakened, unfortunately, it kept producing very strong winds at the surface. I do not think that it weakened any further from the 135 kts a few hours before landfall. It's EWRC seemed to have completed just as it was moving onshore. Not enough time for it to regain cat 5 status, however.


Yeah it's one of those situations where you have two conflicting sets of data and you have to find a compromise between the two which I credit the NHC with doing. Katrina evolved similar to Lilli but did not collapse like she did. K gained a bit of steam after a large portion of its cdo disappeared but did not gain strength if any it was very miniscule. Stabilised at landfall would be my best judgement.

Maria is very interesting and something that will be studied for a while. I wonder how much the outer eyewall took control before landfall. Really annoying visual data gap that limits the ability to tell how strong the eyewall got. I wonder if damage assessments of landfall area will tell us anything or storm chaser data.
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#9 Postby NotoSans » Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:46 am

J_J99 wrote:Grand isle on the weak western eyewall of the system was getting cat 3 winds before it stopped recording approximately 1 hour and 45 minutes before the minimum pressure observed. NHC explicitly stated in its post season analysis it could have been a cat 4 right at landfall with cat 4 winds possibly impacting the coast of plaquimines parish but data was too inconclusive with no reliable wind reports near area of first landfall to support 115 kts due to most of them being destroyed.


An excerpt from Katrina TCR:

The strongest sustained wind measured from a fixed location at the surface on the morning of 29 August was 76 kt at 0820 UTC by the C-MAN station at Grand Isle, LA. This station’s anemometer, at 16 m elevation, failed at about 0900 UTC, about two hours before closest approach of the eye. The strongest gust from an official reporting station was 99 kt at the Grand Isle C-MAN station at 0838 UTC 29 August, about 2.5 hours prior to the Buras, LA landfall.


Grand Isle was getting category-3 gusts instead of sustained winds. This surface observation alone did not contradict with the aircraft data.

Katrina was very likely a category 3 when it made landfall over Buras. The intensity estimate is supported very well by the aircraft data.
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:18 am

Ok folks,Let's not turn this thread to all Katrina as poll is about Maria. :)
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#11 Postby J_J99 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:10 am

cycloneye wrote:Ok folks,Let's not turn this thread to all Katrina as poll is about Maria. :)

Sorry bout the unexpected Katrina turn haha. :) Made a little comment about Katrina didn't know it would turn into a nixe and healthy debate. :)

You experienced Maria first-hand which must have been a really terrifying experience with how intense it was at landfall. What in your opinion makes it for you most likely a cat 5 at landfall since you experienced and saw the damage firsthand?
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#12 Postby Blown Away » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:20 am

Amazing storm, just didn't have that perfect look that is normally needed to sustain Cat 5. I'd be surprised if sustained Cat 5 winds were found at the surface over/at PR.
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:47 am

J_J99 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Ok folks,Let's not turn this thread to all Katrina as poll is about Maria. :)

Sorry bout the unexpected Katrina turn haha. :) Made a little comment about Katrina didn't know it would turn into a nixe and healthy debate. :)

You experienced Maria first-hand which must have been a really terrifying experience with how intense it was at landfall. What in your opinion makes it for you most likely a cat 5 at landfall since you experienced and saw the damage firsthand?


It was horrific where I am in the north coast of PR (San Juan) as it started around 10PM with Tropical Storm force sustained and gusts and around 5 AM the Hurricane force winds arrived to this city. You can tell I didn't slept that night.Those winds lasted around 4 hours and then we were on the back side as the tropical storm winds returned and slowly during that day September 20 they subsided.Also,extreme rains arrived for many hours.
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#14 Postby terstorm1012 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 8:08 am

I think it will stay Cat 4 at TCR. The available data at this moment doesn't seem to support Category 5.

However, I think as we learn more, in a couple years, it'll get reanalyzed to 5..
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#15 Postby J_J99 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 8:33 am

cycloneye wrote:
J_J99 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Ok folks,Let's not turn this thread to all Katrina as poll is about Maria. :)

Sorry bout the unexpected Katrina turn haha. :) Made a little comment about Katrina didn't know it would turn into a nixe and healthy debate. :)

You experienced Maria first-hand which must have been a really terrifying experience with how intense it was at landfall. What in your opinion makes it for you most likely a cat 5 at landfall since you experienced and saw the damage firsthand?


It was horrific where I am in the north coast of PR (San Juan) as it started around 10PM with Tropical Storm force sustained and gusts and around 5 AM the Hurricane force winds arrived to this city. You can tell I didn't slept that night.Those winds lasted around 4 hours and then we were on the back side as the tropical storm winds returned and slowly during that day September 20 they subsided.Also,extreme rains arrived for many hours.

And San Juan was relatively far away from the landfall point, if hurricane force winds lasted for 4 hours in a place not entirely in the eyewall, that definitely tells you something about the intensity. Im really sorry you had to go through that..... and could only imagine how terrifying it would be near the point of landfall.

I do wonder if there is more data on the ground that we have not heard of yet..... this seasons TCR reports are going to me VERY interesting.... so many things can change... Jose a Cat 5? Harvey stronger? Irma alone is gonna keep them busy...
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:10 am

Interesting statement from Stacey Stewart regarding the data made on September 22.

The National Hurricane Center’s Stewart also mentions that many of the island’s weather stations were knocked offline during the storm. So the absolute figures on rainfall and wind speeds are not yet known — and could be even higher than what we already know — and they won’t be known until crews from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration visit these locations.

“Even though the power is out and the [weather stations] weren’t operating in real time, many of these instruments are still recording the data, and we have to go in, retrieve the data, and play it back,” Stewart says.

Also the only two Doppler radar stations on the island are currently offline due to the storm, Stewart says. Doppler radar helps meteorologists make local, community-by-community forecasts. He says it’s unclear if the Doppler radar stations have themselves been damaged or if it was just communications equipment that got toppled over.

Either way, it’s still too early for NOAA crews to go out and inspect, he says.

Whole article at link below.

:darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/ ... rain-power
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 28, 2017 12:07 pm

Here is the town where Maria made landfall. General details about the town of Yabucoa are at Wikipedia. I am sure some of the 37,000 people who live there will give relevant information to NOAA.

Wikipedia

Image
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#18 Postby J_J99 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 12:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:Interesting statement from Stacey Stewart regarding the data made on September 22.

The National Hurricane Center’s Stewart also mentions that many of the island’s weather stations were knocked offline during the storm. So the absolute figures on rainfall and wind speeds are not yet known — and could be even higher than what we already know — and they won’t be known until crews from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration visit these locations.

“Even though the power is out and the [weather stations] weren’t operating in real time, many of these instruments are still recording the data, and we have to go in, retrieve the data, and play it back,” Stewart says.

Also the only two Doppler radar stations on the island are currently offline due to the storm, Stewart says. Doppler radar helps meteorologists make local, community-by-community forecasts. He says it’s unclear if the Doppler radar stations have themselves been damaged or if it was just communications equipment that got toppled over.

Either way, it’s still too early for NOAA crews to go out and inspect, he says.

Whole article at link below.

:darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/ ... rain-power

I found this to be very interesting.... the NWS final report from San Juan, did that have all of the information that was missing?
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#19 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:17 pm

J_J99 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Interesting statement from Stacey Stewart regarding the data made on September 22.

The National Hurricane Center’s Stewart also mentions that many of the island’s weather stations were knocked offline during the storm. So the absolute figures on rainfall and wind speeds are not yet known — and could be even higher than what we already know — and they won’t be known until crews from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration visit these locations.

“Even though the power is out and the [weather stations] weren’t operating in real time, many of these instruments are still recording the data, and we have to go in, retrieve the data, and play it back,” Stewart says.

Also the only two Doppler radar stations on the island are currently offline due to the storm, Stewart says. Doppler radar helps meteorologists make local, community-by-community forecasts. He says it’s unclear if the Doppler radar stations have themselves been damaged or if it was just communications equipment that got toppled over.

Either way, it’s still too early for NOAA crews to go out and inspect, he says.

Whole article at link below.

:darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/ ... rain-power

I found this to be very interesting.... the NWS final report from San Juan, did that have all of the information that was missing?


Is preliminary.

http://www.weather.gov/sju/maria2017
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#20 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:41 pm

I would say that the Dominica Cat5 landfall appearance looks a tad bit more intense than the Puerto Rico landfall.

Image

Image
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