Will Hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico landfall be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

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Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or not?

Poll ended at Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:40 pm

Yes
14
48%
No
15
52%
 
Total votes: 29

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Shell Mound
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#21 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Nov 28, 2017 2:05 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I agree...I think it stays cat 4. In fact, I could see it nudged down slightly (my best estimate is 130 kt, +/- 5 kt).

I know the SFMR readings were coming down, and the last pass about 2 1/2 hours before landfall supported the 135 kt intensity. However, the pressure appeared to rise some more between the last pass around 0745Z (917mb) and landfall around 1015Z. There was decent data from two storm chasers of 929mb (on the fringe of the eye with very strong winds) and 926mb (just inside the eye with moderate winds). That supports a landfall pressure in the 921-924 range. I would split the difference and go with 923mb. That rise in pressure also lends itself to slight additional weakening. Make no mistake, though, it was still a VERY intense storm...

I completely agree with your reasoning. The eyewall replacement is a key factor supporting high-end Category-4 vs. Category-5 status at landfall. Observations support this.

If your proposed changes were adopted in the posthumous analysis (tropical-cyclone report), then the rankings for Puerto Rico would appear as follows:

  1. 1928 #4 — 140 knots / 931 mb
  2. 2017 Maria — 130 knots / 923 mb
  3. 1932 #9 — 125 knots / 943 mb
  4. 1899 #3 — 120 knots / 940 mb
  5. 1989 Hugo — 110 knots / 946 mb
Whether San Felipe Segundo (1928) would remain a Category 5 with recon, NEXRAD, and satellite available is an open question. We still do not know whether the winds measured at the San Juan Weather Bureau were terrain- or mesovortex-influenced. The reanalysis project conservatively retained the 140-knot winds at landfall based on the 139-knot one-minute sustained measurement at the San Juan station. Other factors—RMW, environmental pressure, and forward speed—only supported a strong Category 4, 125 to 130 knots, at landfall.

On the other hand, reanalysis could well upgrade Hugo to 115 knots at landfall near Roosevelt Roads, Puerto Rico...
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#22 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:15 pm

I agree that the NHC will probably keep Maria a category 4 for its Puerto Rico landfall. Maria was nearing the completion of an eyewall replacement cycle. Prior to starting the eyewall replacement cycle, Maria's winds were running rather close to what would be expected from KZC. However, eyewall replacement affects the pressure gradients at the core of a system, meaning winds would probably run below what would be expected when using KZC.

I ran KZC off the ATCF b-deck, which I have provided below. Eyewall replacement really got going after 00Z on the 20th, and as expected, the wind speeds in the file were lower than what KZC would predict. The 12Z point came after landfall, but based on Simon Brewer's pressure reading in the eye at the landfall point, it may be a good representation of the landfall pressure. At the very least the actual landfall pressure was no more than 5 mb lower. 922 mb would yield a 142 kt estimate from KZC, but again, eyewall replacement had not yet completed (radar image below).

I'd probably go 130 kt/925 mb for the landfall intensity, a hair under the KZC estimate (due to the near completion of eyewall replacement), which is in good agreement with the SSMIS and ATMS microwave estimates from around the time of landfall. 130 kt is still very intense though. Such an intensity would be classified as a Super Typhoon in the WPac, and this is the same landfall intensity as Patricia '15, but with a much larger radius of maximum winds.

Date & Time Lat/Lon Vmax (kt) Speed Mean Actual OCI
exp (act) (kt) R34 Pressure
9/17/2017 18Z: 13.6N 57.0W 71 ( 65), 13, 58, 986, 1010
9/18/2017 0Z: 14.0N 58.0W 78 ( 75), 11, 65, 979, 1009
9/18/2017 6Z: 14.3N 59.0W 82 ( 80), 10, 65, 977, 1010
9/18/2017 12Z: 14.5N 59.7W 93 (100), 7, 90, 967, 1010
9/18/2017 18Z: 14.9N 60.4W 107 (110), 8, 92, 956, 1010
9/19/2017 0Z: 15.3N 61.1W 141 (140), 8, 98, 924, 1010
9/19/2017 6Z: 15.8N 61.9W 125 (135), 9, 98, 940, 1010
9/19/2017 12Z: 16.1N 62.7W 134 (140), 8, 102, 931, 1010
9/19/2017 18Z: 16.6N 63.6W 145 (145), 10, 102, 920, 1010
9/20/2017 0Z: 17.0N 64.3W 154 (150), 8, 112, 909, 1010
9/20/2017 6Z: 17.6N 65.1W 151 (140), 10, 112, 913, 1010
9/20/2017 12Z: 18.2N 66.1W 136 (125), 11, 112, 927, 1009


Image

 https://twitter.com/SimonStormRider/status/911329219120189440


Last edited by 1900hurricane on Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#23 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:33 pm

As some have mentioned,almost at landfall in Yabucoa the ERC ended and was a little stronger again.The question is if it was sufficient to reach Cat 5 status at landfall.

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Re: Will Hurricane Maria be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:22 am

Poll closes today at 8:40 PM AST so those who have not voted yet can do so.So far is a close result going on.
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico landfall be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#25 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:10 pm

Thank for the 29 members that voted.Poll closes with a close result with no ahead one vote.Now we wait for the Tropical Cyclone Report on Maria.
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico landfall be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#26 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:35 pm

cycloneye wrote:Thank for the 29 members that voted.Poll closes with a close result with no ahead one vote.Now we wait for the Tropical Cyclone Report on Maria.


If I were to guess, the TCR will be in February, one of the latter ones but not the last one (I'm guessing Irma will be last due to the enormity of data from so many countries).
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Re: Will Hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico landfall be upped to Cat 5 or stays as Cat 4 at TCR?

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:34 am

Here is a good summary of how things stand in Puerto Rico after 108 days of Maria's landfall.

@DavidBegnaud
Saturday in Puerto Rico
108 days after Maria
Status.pr reports:
*73% power generation
*55% of island has electricity
*298 survivors remain in the 18 shelters still open on the island
*Since 10/3/17, more than 307,000 people have arrived in Florida from PR


 https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/949674406305042437


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