Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#121 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:11 am

Shell Mound wrote:For the purpose of discussion, I decided to quote two of wxman57's posts from another thread:

wxman57 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
2017 was a warm AMO during the hurricane season except for July.

1 2017 -0.58
2 2017 0.08
3 2017 -0.61
4 2017 -0.81

5 2017 0.22
6 2017 0.06
7 2017 -0.89
8 2017 0
9 2017 0.31
10 2017 0.16
11 2017 0.39
12 2017 0.33
1 2018 -0.61
2 2018 -1.29


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2671305#p2671305


Here's a comparison animation between March 26 of 2017 and current SSTs. Tremendous difference in the Tropical Pacific. Much cooler now than last March. Cooler in the MDR, too.

Image

Some key points that I took from all this:

*The most recent +AMO was spikier than the last +AMO. For instance, there was greater year-to-year variation, and the peaks and valleys were sharper, which could account for the (possible?) early end to the most recent +AMO. Perhaps the intensity of this +AMO cycle, with its record-breaking warmth in 2010, can account for its premature demise, if indeed it is ending.
*Is it true that, all other factors being equal, tropical-Atlantic SSTs tend to warm more rapidly after a major SAL episode ends?
*The AMO was quite cool in early 2017, though not as cold as it is now. This reversed significantly in early summer, leading to an active season. Could such a reversal happen in 2018, too?

Interestingly, in many recent seasons, the Atlantic MDR SSTs have cooled rapidly in February and March to the Atlantic a -AMO look. This pattern occurred in 2012, 2015 and 2017, all of which changed to an above normal MDR by the peak of the season. I would not count on the Atlantic MDR being cold for the season though I do think it will be cooler than last year.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#122 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:14 am

TheStormExpert wrote:If the tropics globally are cooler than normal than wouldn’t a 2013 repeat be a possibility?

It is possible if this continues we could see a fairly quiet global tropics, but every season is different and I highly doubt we will see a "2013 repeat." If we do not get any major hurricanes in 2018 I will be surprised.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#123 Postby StruThiO » Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:35 pm

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/979085256216268800





As others have said, best to wait a while longer before jumping to conclusions about ssts. I am interested in when this winter -AMO pattern persists through summer. As opposed to reversing before peak cane season.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#124 Postby wxman57 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 7:49 am

CyclonicFury wrote:Interestingly, in many recent seasons, the Atlantic MDR SSTs have cooled rapidly in February and March to the Atlantic a -AMO look. This pattern occurred in 2012, 2015 and 2017, all of which changed to an above normal MDR by the peak of the season. I would not count on the Atlantic MDR being cold for the season though I do think it will be cooler than last year.


Yes, that's true. Current temperature anomalies in the MDR may not necessarily carry over to peak season, as we saw last year. Much will depend on the NAO over the coming months. A +NAO would mean higher pressure across the North Atlantic, which would translate into stronger trade winds in the MDR and a more hostile environment (cooler SSTs, too). My coworker is predicting a trof setting up over the Ohio Valley rather than off the east U.S. Coast, meaning a +NAO. Predicting such things months in advance is not easy, though. I'd add that a +NAO would concentrate development farther west, increasing the risk to the western Caribbean, Gulf, and SE U.S. Coast.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#125 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 29, 2018 8:25 am

wxman57 wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Interestingly, in many recent seasons, the Atlantic MDR SSTs have cooled rapidly in February and March to the Atlantic a -AMO look. This pattern occurred in 2012, 2015 and 2017, all of which changed to an above normal MDR by the peak of the season. I would not count on the Atlantic MDR being cold for the season though I do think it will be cooler than last year.


Yes, that's true. Current temperature anomalies in the MDR may not necessarily carry over to peak season, as we saw last year. Much will depend on the NAO over the coming months. A +NAO would mean higher pressure across the North Atlantic, which would translate into stronger trade winds in the MDR and a more hostile environment (cooler SSTs, too). My coworker is predicting a trof setting up over the Ohio Valley rather than off the east U.S. Coast, meaning a +NAO. Predicting such things months in advance is not easy, though. I'd add that a +NAO would concentrate development farther west, increasing the risk to the western Caribbean, Gulf, and SE U.S. Coast.


If that occurs,then Puerto Rico and the islands that were affected greatly by Irma and Maria will be free of threats but still is early to be sure of that.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#126 Postby NDG » Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:08 am

Yes is way too early to say what the MDR's temps & MSPs will be like this early on. We have seen many times when it has been at record warm levels this early on to cool down big time during the peak of the season and vice versa.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#127 Postby Alyono » Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:14 am

cycloneye wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Interestingly, in many recent seasons, the Atlantic MDR SSTs have cooled rapidly in February and March to the Atlantic a -AMO look. This pattern occurred in 2012, 2015 and 2017, all of which changed to an above normal MDR by the peak of the season. I would not count on the Atlantic MDR being cold for the season though I do think it will be cooler than last year.


Yes, that's true. Current temperature anomalies in the MDR may not necessarily carry over to peak season, as we saw last year. Much will depend on the NAO over the coming months. A +NAO would mean higher pressure across the North Atlantic, which would translate into stronger trade winds in the MDR and a more hostile environment (cooler SSTs, too). My coworker is predicting a trof setting up over the Ohio Valley rather than off the east U.S. Coast, meaning a +NAO. Predicting such things months in advance is not easy, though. I'd add that a +NAO would concentrate development farther west, increasing the risk to the western Caribbean, Gulf, and SE U.S. Coast.


If that occurs,then Puerto Rico and the islands that were affected greatly by Irma and Maria will be free of threats but still is early to be sure of that.


may not be the case at all. May just be that the storms develop close to the islands, like Maria did
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#128 Postby wxman57 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:15 am

cycloneye wrote:
If that occurs,then Puerto Rico and the islands that were affected greatly by Irma and Maria will be free of threats but still is early to be sure of that.


I'm sure you are not anxious to see any more hurricanes in 2018, Luis. A quieter MDR would be much better for PR. Predicting such a think 5-6 months in advance is more of a guess, though.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#129 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:38 am

wxman57 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
If that occurs,then Puerto Rico and the islands that were affected greatly by Irma and Maria will be free of threats but still is early to be sure of that.


I'm sure you are not anxious to see any more hurricanes in 2018, Luis. A quieter MDR would be much better for PR. Predicting such a think 5-6 months in advance is more of a guess, though.


+1,000
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#130 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:57 pm

wxman57 wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Interestingly, in many recent seasons, the Atlantic MDR SSTs have cooled rapidly in February and March to the Atlantic a -AMO look. This pattern occurred in 2012, 2015 and 2017, all of which changed to an above normal MDR by the peak of the season. I would not count on the Atlantic MDR being cold for the season though I do think it will be cooler than last year.


Yes, that's true. Current temperature anomalies in the MDR may not necessarily carry over to peak season, as we saw last year. Much will depend on the NAO over the coming months. A +NAO would mean higher pressure across the North Atlantic, which would translate into stronger trade winds in the MDR and a more hostile environment (cooler SSTs, too). My coworker is predicting a trof setting up over the Ohio Valley rather than off the east U.S. Coast, meaning a +NAO. Predicting such things months in advance is not easy, though. I'd add that a +NAO would concentrate development farther west, increasing the risk to the western Caribbean, Gulf, and SE U.S. Coast.

If a storm were to form near the Bahamas, then a mean trough over the Ohio Valley, as far as I know, would tend to favour threats to the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England, as in 1999 (Floyd) and 2011 (Irene). For the same storm, a trough farther to the west, over the upper Midwest, would favour tracks into the Florida peninsula or eastern Gulf of Mexico, as in 2004. Given the drought over the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, we may see an enhanced "death ridge" this summer, meaning storms that form in the western Caribbean might track into southern Texas or northern Tamaulipas, Mexico, like Bret (1999). If 1999 and (especially) 2011 can serve as pattern-based analogs, then the highest risk may be to: Bay of Campeche/southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the Carolinas through southern New England.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#131 Postby chaser1 » Fri Mar 30, 2018 9:56 am

I smell a contest coming on :cheesy:
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#132 Postby SFLcane » Fri Mar 30, 2018 1:16 pm

I think i'll side with wxman57 on this one...thx :wink:
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#133 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:45 pm

Interesting thoughts from Mark Sudduth at HurricaneTrack.com:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqH0Hd8uaPM



Link: https://youtu.be/QqH0Hd8uaPM
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#134 Postby chaser1 » Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:18 pm

Beyond SST anomalies and year to year SST comparisons, i'd be more interested in viewing year to year 200mb-500mb flow comparison for the E. Pacific and throughout the Atlantic MDR and sub tropic regions. As a side-note, i'd be curious how much variance occurs with the strength and flow of the Atlantic Equatorial counter current, and how much might it contribute (or negate) a more active and further north poised (or suppressed) E. Atlantic ITCZ.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hhurricane Season

#135 Postby NotSparta » Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:36 am

I posted my first prediction for this season

 https://twitter.com/NotSparta_wx/status/980405593772085249


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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#136 Postby Kazmit » Mon Apr 02, 2018 4:47 pm

Does the state of ENSO affect where hurricanes tend to form and track? I know there are many other factors involved, but is there a general trend?
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#137 Postby weathaguyry » Tue Apr 03, 2018 12:16 am

Image

If the PDO flips negative, that would be a game changer...
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#138 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Apr 25, 2018 2:21 pm

Posted this in the ENSO thread since as of just recently among different experts on here and Twitter there has been chatter of El Niño-like effects even if we don’t see an actual El Niño event this season. What’s your guys thoughts?

TheStormExpert wrote:Sounds like we may be in for another 2014. Where the El Niño never materialized YET, but you had basically full blown El Niño-like conditions and effects from what you’d see during one across the Pacific and Atlantic. If that’s the case I’d expect experts to trend downwards with their predictions which at this point is the only way I see things trending if they’re to trend some way.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#139 Postby Chris90 » Wed Apr 25, 2018 8:11 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Posted this in the ENSO thread since as of just recently among different experts on here and Twitter there has been chatter of El Niño-like effects even if we don’t see an actual El Niño event this season. What’s your guys thoughts?

TheStormExpert wrote:Sounds like we may be in for another 2014. Where the El Niño never materialized YET, but you had basically full blown El Niño-like conditions and effects from what you’d see during one across the Pacific and Atlantic. If that’s the case I’d expect experts to trend downwards with their predictions which at this point is the only way I see things trending if they’re to trend some way.


The preliminary numbers I have in my head for the Atlantic aren't extremely high, but I'm not writing the season off yet due to possible El Nino like effects. I'm keeping an eye on mid-latitude ssts in the Atlantic to see how they evolve over the next month. At this time I do think that a majority of the ACE will be generated between 20°-30°N. My personal gut feeling is that 1996 may be a decent analog for general storm tracks and intensity. I think I might be feeling that way due to last year reminding me somewhat of 1995, and 1996 was the year between that and the major nino of 1997. I think something similar may occur this year, with a strengthening nino starting to get better established as the year progresses.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#140 Postby Ntxw » Wed Apr 25, 2018 8:59 pm

It's too early to impose ENSO as the main driver to this hurricane season. I would stick to the local basin's indicators until at least mid summer before even considering what ENSO state may do what.

I do think -NAO will be a recurring theme this year. Low solar minimum periods have some correlation to the NAO/AO domain (see 2009-2012 period)
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