Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#141 Postby NotSparta » Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:21 pm

Ntxw wrote:It's too early to impose ENSO as the main driver to this hurricane season. I would stick to the local basin's indicators until at least mid summer before even considering what ENSO state may do what.

I do think -NAO will be a recurring theme this year. Low solar minimums periods ave some correlation to the NAO/AO domain (see 2009-2012 period)



If this is true it would promote +AMO configuration and may try to fight against what's looking like an active EP basin, which seems like the most likely external impediment to the season, imo
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#142 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Apr 26, 2018 11:01 am

I hope I’m wrong- but I am concerned we will have an active hurricane season. I dont see the westerly bursts being strong enough to totally neutralize the much colder epac temps. Also there are so many well defined convective clusters over west africa- which leads me to believe the atlantic may even have a hyperactive season. The positions of the troughing i believe will be over the midwest and the ridge over the atlantic will also be displaced westward. I think we will see a season like 2004 or 2005 in terms of tracks and potentially activity. Im no expert though so don’t get worried. NAO should stay negative meaning very active MDR, and the ridge and trough positions should be in a place to perhaps make for an active season along the US gom and western carib.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#143 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Apr 26, 2018 5:54 pm

If the El-Nino materializes, then track and activity wise I'm thinking something like 1985, with the bulk of the hurricanes being north of 20N due to shear

Image
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#144 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:08 pm

The analog seasons on Tropical Tidbits all for the most part were inactive seasons with the exception of 2000 which even with a La Niña ongoing was only slightly above average and most of the storms were weak. It’s also interesting to see 2013 as an analog season.

If the numbers poll opened today I’d likely go with 12/5/2 or somewhere in that range as I just don’t have much faith whatsoever for the Atlantic this season. The SST configuration screams an inactive season.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#145 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Apr 27, 2018 10:42 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:The analog seasons on Tropical Tidbits all for the most part were inactive seasons with the exception of 2000 which even with a La Niña ongoing was only slightly above average and most of the storms were weak. It’s also interesting to see 2013 as an analog season.

If the numbers poll opened today I’d likely go with 12/5/2 or somewhere in that range as I just don’t have much faith whatsoever for the Atlantic this season. The SST configuration screams an inactive season.


Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but I do recall 2013 being the top analog on Tropical Tidbits last year as well, and we all know how that played out...
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#146 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Apr 27, 2018 11:24 pm

weathaguyry wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:The analog seasons on Tropical Tidbits all for the most part were inactive seasons with the exception of 2000 which even with a La Niña ongoing was only slightly above average and most of the storms were weak. It’s also interesting to see 2013 as an analog season.

If the numbers poll opened today I’d likely go with 12/5/2 or somewhere in that range as I just don’t have much faith whatsoever for the Atlantic this season. The SST configuration screams an inactive season.


Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but I do recall 2013 being the top analog on Tropical Tidbits last year as well, and we all know how that played out...

Yes, you are correct. 2013 was the top analog for much of last season and we all know how that turned out.

And also, I’d like to emphasize again: 2013 was an extreme anomaly of a season.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#147 Postby Chris90 » Sat Apr 28, 2018 12:10 am

I went back to the 2017 indicators thread to read through the discussion from the April - Early May period, and at this time last year 2005 was being discussed as a possible analog. The discussion was that members didn't believe 2005 was a good analog intensity wise, but might be a good analog for storm tracks. In my opinion, 2005 didnt end up as a good analog track wise, considering a lot of the ACE that year was generated in the Gulf and W. Caribbean, while last year a lot of the ACE was generated further east.

Concerning 2013 as a possible analog for this year, I think the danger is people will see that and assume 2013 was well below average, so therefore there's good signs that this year might be quiet too. The thing to remember is 2013 was dead due to the thermohaline circulation weakening. The other factors were there for an active season. In fact, I think it was one of CSUs biggest forecast busts in years, if not the biggest bust they've ever had, due to the thermohaline circulation throwing a curveball. A 2013 analog could be a signal for an active season, especially if it was a top analog last year.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#148 Postby Alyono » Sat Apr 28, 2018 12:32 am

Chris90 wrote:I went back to the 2017 indicators thread to read through the discussion from the April - Early May period, and at this time last year 2005 was being discussed as a possible analog. The discussion was that members didn't believe 2005 was a good analog intensity wise, but might be a good analog for storm tracks. In my opinion, 2005 didnt end up as a good analog track wise, considering a lot of the ACE that year was generated in the Gulf and W. Caribbean, while last year a lot of the ACE was generated further east.

Concerning 2013 as a possible analog for this year, I think the danger is people will see that and assume 2013 was well below average, so therefore there's good signs that this year might be quiet too. The thing to remember is 2013 was dead due to the thermohaline circulation weakening. The other factors were there for an active season. In fact, I think it was one of CSUs biggest forecast busts in years, if not the biggest bust they've ever had, due to the thermohaline circulation throwing a curveball. A 2013 analog could be a signal for an active season, especially if it was a top analog last year.



2005 was by far their worst bust. That was incredibly poorly forecast by everyone. Even the August forecasts from NOAA and CSU were incredibly below what happened
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#149 Postby Chris90 » Sat Apr 28, 2018 1:43 am

Alyono wrote:2005 was by far their worst bust. That was incredibly poorly forecast by everyone. Even the August forecasts from NOAA and CSU were incredibly below what happened


Yes, I didn't even think of that for some reason. I was thinking back to an article I read where Klotzbach and Gray described 2013 as their worst forecast bust in 30 years. Clearly they forgot 2005 too, lol. I think they may have considered it their worst due to losing funding that year, and their tropical meteorology project came close to getting shut down from what I understand.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#150 Postby NotSparta » Sat Apr 28, 2018 5:33 am

weathaguyry wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:The analog seasons on Tropical Tidbits all for the most part were inactive seasons with the exception of 2000 which even with a La Niña ongoing was only slightly above average and most of the storms were weak. It’s also interesting to see 2013 as an analog season.

If the numbers poll opened today I’d likely go with 12/5/2 or somewhere in that range as I just don’t have much faith whatsoever for the Atlantic this season. The SST configuration screams an inactive season.


Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but I do recall 2013 being the top analog on Tropical Tidbits last year as well, and we all know how that played out...


Seems like it's always top analog
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#151 Postby Weather150 » Sat Apr 28, 2018 6:38 am

NotSparta wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:The analog seasons on Tropical Tidbits all for the most part were inactive seasons with the exception of 2000 which even with a La Niña ongoing was only slightly above average and most of the storms were weak. It’s also interesting to see 2013 as an analog season.

If the numbers poll opened today I’d likely go with 12/5/2 or somewhere in that range as I just don’t have much faith whatsoever for the Atlantic this season. The SST configuration screams an inactive season.


Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but I do recall 2013 being the top analog on Tropical Tidbits last year as well, and we all know how that played out...


Seems like it's always top analog

Just for the LOLS.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#152 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Apr 28, 2018 9:19 am

I wonder how seriously they would have been taken if they had forecast 2005 correctly from the beginning though. A forecast of around 27 storms would probably have been seen as serious overhyping, or maybe everybody would have thought they had just lost their minds.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#153 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Apr 28, 2018 5:32 pm

With an already active looking wave train over Africa, it appears that having a lack of waves won't be a big problem for the hurricane season. If the MDR/ Caribbean ends up being hostile, then the waves will probably develop closer to the coast if they get far enough north. I would think that the hotspot this year would shift west closer to the Bahamas.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#154 Postby Kazmit » Sat Apr 28, 2018 6:15 pm

weathaguyry wrote:With an already active looking wave train over Africa, it appears that having a lack of waves won't be a big problem for the hurricane season. If the MDR/ Caribbean ends up being hostile, then the waves will probably develop closer to the coast if they get far enough north. I would think that the hotspot this year would shift west closer to the Bahamas.


I agree. I think a lot of activity will be in the western Atlantic and Bermuda Triangle area (which includes the Bahamas). A lot of the phantom storms predicted by the models seem to be around there. An active MDR seems less likely due to cool SSTs and the possibility of high SAL and shear.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#155 Postby NotSparta » Sat Apr 28, 2018 7:52 pm

Kazmit wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:With an already active looking wave train over Africa, it appears that having a lack of waves won't be a big problem for the hurricane season. If the MDR/ Caribbean ends up being hostile, then the waves will probably develop closer to the coast if they get far enough north. I would think that the hotspot this year would shift west closer to the Bahamas.


I agree. I think a lot of activity will be in the western Atlantic and Bermuda Triangle area (which includes the Bahamas). A lot of the phantom storms predicted by the models seem to be around there. An active MDR seems less likely due to cool SSTs and the possibility of high SAL and shear.


Yeah seems to be a base state lately of enhanced trades over the MDR, which means more westerly shear for the same upper level wind, more SAL dumps, cool SSTs and is an impediment to spin. Looks like another quiet MDR (but not as much so imo or having a mysterious cause) so I agree

In addition, as we saw last August before the MDR became favorable, the strong CV waves, if they can encounter favorable conditions later, can really blow up quickly.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#156 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Apr 29, 2018 3:38 am

Chris90 wrote:I went back to the 2017 indicators thread to read through the discussion from the April - Early May period, and at this time last year 2005 was being discussed as a possible analog. The discussion was that members didn't believe 2005 was a good analog intensity wise, but might be a good analog for storm tracks. In my opinion, 2005 didnt end up as a good analog track wise, considering a lot of the ACE that year was generated in the Gulf and W. Caribbean, while last year a lot of the ACE was generated further east.

Concerning 2013 as a possible analog for this year, I think the danger is people will see that and assume 2013 was well below average, so therefore there's good signs that this year might be quiet too. The thing to remember is 2013 was dead due to the thermohaline circulation weakening. The other factors were there for an active season. In fact, I think it was one of CSUs biggest forecast busts in years, if not the biggest bust they've ever had, due to the thermohaline circulation throwing a curveball. A 2013 analog could be a signal for an active season, especially if it was a top analog last year.


The ACE was further East which scientifically and for sake of this topic, that's what matters. However I bet if you ask anybody along the Gulf Coast, 2017 was quite active and destructive. 7 Named Storms affected the Gulf/W Caribbean with 5 crossing the US Gulf Coast in 2017. 2005 saw 7 much stronger storms cross the US Gulf Coast. None crossed the Atlantic coast in 2017 and 1 crossed the Atlantic coast in 2005. Overall and relatively, as far as US Impacts, 2017 could be considered a mini 2005 so predictions might not have been as terrible as one might think.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2017.png

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2005.png

As for this year Neutral years tend to be average and the Pacific is actually possibly headed for El Nino so global patterns may be feeling this soon so I would think on the low side of Average.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#157 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 29, 2018 8:02 am

@MJVentrice
My third bold prediction of 2018: The 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season will feature a much quieter season than normal. We may only see just a handful of hurricanes active throughout the season.


 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/990575419412877317


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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#158 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:44 am

cycloneye wrote:@MJVentrice
My third bold prediction of 2018: The 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season will feature a much quieter season than normal. We may only see just a handful of hurricanes active throughout the season.


 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/990575419412877317



When I think much quieter than normal I think 2014’s total named storms. Of course is his normal the long-term average most forecasters use when making their seasonal forecasts?
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#159 Postby Chris90 » Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:40 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:
Chris90 wrote:I went back to the 2017 indicators thread to read through the discussion from the April - Early May period, and at this time last year 2005 was being discussed as a possible analog. The discussion was that members didn't believe 2005 was a good analog intensity wise, but might be a good analog for storm tracks. In my opinion, 2005 didnt end up as a good analog track wise, considering a lot of the ACE that year was generated in the Gulf and W. Caribbean, while last year a lot of the ACE was generated further east.

Concerning 2013 as a possible analog for this year, I think the danger is people will see that and assume 2013 was well below average, so therefore there's good signs that this year might be quiet too. The thing to remember is 2013 was dead due to the thermohaline circulation weakening. The other factors were there for an active season. In fact, I think it was one of CSUs biggest forecast busts in years, if not the biggest bust they've ever had, due to the thermohaline circulation throwing a curveball. A 2013 analog could be a signal for an active season, especially if it was a top analog last year.


The ACE was further East which scientifically and for sake of this topic, that's what matters. However I bet if you ask anybody along the Gulf Coast, 2017 was quite active and destructive. 7 Named Storms affected the Gulf/W Caribbean with 5 crossing the US Gulf Coast in 2017. 2005 saw 7 much stronger storms cross the US Gulf Coast. None crossed the Atlantic coast in 2017 and 1 crossed the Atlantic coast in 2005. Overall and relatively, as far as US Impacts, 2017 could be considered a mini 2005 so predictions might not have been as terrible as one might think.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2017.png

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2005.png

As for this year Neutral years tend to be average and the Pacific is actually possibly headed for El Nino so global patterns may be feeling this soon so I would think on the low side of Average.


I hope you didn't take my post as being inconsiderate of the impacts along the Gulf Coast last season, that wasn't my intention, so if you did, I apologize.

I was just trying to compare the discussion from this time last year to now, to see what similarities and differences there might be, specifically looking at the analogs.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#160 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue May 01, 2018 2:13 pm

I'm starting to really think 2000 is the best analog. That was a fairly average season in the end.
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