Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[chaser1]

I don't like the 11-16 storms I hate when experts make a prediction that big...just say 14-16

I couldn't agree more!!! Let's just postulate "the number of named tropical cyclones likely to form during the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will range from an average years' activity.... OR pethaps display above average activity". That surely ain't going out on a limb (and is more like standing on the stump lol)

[chaser1]

How credible is the 'Global Weather Oscillations' prediction? Apparently they were correct in calling for an above average season last year and they claim this year will be just as bad.

about as credible as me predicting sixteen tropical systems in the Mediterranean ocean, all active at the same time and fujiwhara effecting their way to category six intensity over the balmy Russian arctic

Good stuff!

[cycloneye]

That is why I will never add that GWO thing to the list of experts on the Expert forecasts thread

[DANKENGINE420]

to be fair i am only expecting 14-6-3

el nino possible a/w 2018

strongest: hélène

weakest: beryl

c5: no

[Shell Mound]

Based on all available evidence, I think that at least weak El Niño conditions are likely to be in place by the peak of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. This would be sufficient to shut down the season. Additionally, any warming of the equatorial Eastern North Pacific would, regardless of the eventual ENSO state, increase shear in the Caribbean and MDR in 2018 vs. 2017, since equatorial Pacific SSTs will be warmer this year. There are too many opportunities, including the upcoming WPAC TC, for a coupled WWB to emerge, despite heat content being lower than in previous El Niño events. So, while any El Niño is unlikely to reach moderate or greater intensity, it should develop early enough to shut down the Atlantic. At least that's my view at this stage.

[SFLcane]

Based on all available evidence, I think that at least weak El Niño conditions are likely to be in place by the peak of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. This would be sufficient to shut down the season. Additionally, any warming of the equatorial Eastern North Pacific would, regardless of the eventual ENSO state, increase shear in the Caribbean and MDR in 2018 vs. 2017, since equatorial Pacific SSTs will be warmer this year. There are too many opportunities, including the upcoming WPAC TC, for a coupled WWB to emerge, despite heat content being lower than in previous El Niño events. So, while any El Niño is unlikely to reach moderate or greater intensity, it should develop early enough to shut down the Atlantic. At least that's my view at this stage.

Um...Spring predictability barrier

[CyclonicFury]

Based on all available evidence, I think that at least weak El Niño conditions are likely to be in place by the peak of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. This would be sufficient to shut down the season. Additionally, any warming of the equatorial Eastern North Pacific would, regardless of the eventual ENSO state, increase shear in the Caribbean and MDR in 2018 vs. 2017, since equatorial Pacific SSTs will be warmer this year. There are too many opportunities, including the upcoming WPAC TC, for a coupled WWB to emerge, despite heat content being lower than in previous El Niño events. So, while any El Niño is unlikely to reach moderate or greater intensity, it should develop early enough to shut down the Atlantic. At least that's my view at this stage.

Um...Spring predictability barrier

I think it’s way too early to just assume we are headed for El Niño, especially since we still haven’t even exited La Niña and the SPB comes into play. It’s also important to note that a majority of models do NOT develop El Niño by ASO. There’s a medium to high chance we stay at warm neutral which would have little suppressing effect on the season.

[TheStormExpert]

I’d currently say chances are higher of us seeing a full blown El Niño event during the 2019 season verses this year in the 2018 season. Not saying it can’t and will not happen but with it being a few years since the last El Niño season in 2015 we aren’t quite overdue just yet.

Usually see El Niño events every 4-6 years I believe so 2019 would seem more reasonable.

If that’s the case and we don’t see El Niño of any type this year and conditions remain neutral watch out! Those seasons tend to be more dangerous landfall-wise than El Niño or even La Niña years.

Joe B. who claimed we’d break the major hurricane drought last year got that right but for this season he’s calling for less in the way of land impact especially for the continental U.S. which I sort of disagree with. I believe we are re-entering another active U.S. landfall period which we probably were out of during the period from 2006-2015 with the exception of 2008. This seems to go in cycles and if the NAO is negative come this summer and early fall that could greatly lessen our chances of seeing anything significant threaten.

[Shell Mound]

Based on all available evidence, I think that at least weak El Niño conditions are likely to be in place by the peak of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. This would be sufficient to shut down the season. Additionally, any warming of the equatorial Eastern North Pacific would, regardless of the eventual ENSO state, increase shear in the Caribbean and MDR in 2018 vs. 2017, since equatorial Pacific SSTs will be warmer this year. There are too many opportunities, including the upcoming WPAC TC, for a coupled WWB to emerge, despite heat content being lower than in previous El Niño events. So, while any El Niño is unlikely to reach moderate or greater intensity, it should develop early enough to shut down the Atlantic. At least that's my view at this stage.

Um...Spring predictability barrier

I think it’s way too early to just assume we are headed for El Niño, especially since we still haven’t even exited La Niña and the SPB comes into play. It’s also important to note that a majority of models do NOT develop El Niño by ASO. There’s a medium to high chance we stay at warm neutral which would have little suppressing effect on the season.

I think the trend is what counts. At the moment are at the height of the SPB, yet trends—warming subsurface, WWB, upcoming TC genesis in WPAC (force multiplier)—are shifting toward El Niño. Also, the CFSv2 is trending warmer for ASO in recent runs and is getting closer to the ECMWF, which shows weak El Niño by peak season. If the trends were running in the opposite direction, I would agree with you, but neither the ocean nor the atmosphere is static. If current trends continue through April and early May, El Niño becomes certain or nearly so. Also, warm neutral ENSO, while not as unfavourable as El Niño, is substantially different from cool neutral ENSO, in terms of convective placement in the Pacific and overall impact on Atlantic, meaning increased vertical wind shear and less overall activity than in cool neutral years. Of course, what counts is the PDO, which influences steering currents, and El Niño is more closely associated with +PDO than other ENSO states, which, on average, weakens the subtropical ridge and reduces landfall impacts. So, while I do not totally disagree with you, I think the trends matter even during the SPB.

[DANKENGINE420]

i must agree with shell mound with el nino (regardless of strength) forming this season. remember 2006? i can see a scenario like that this year.

also 2019 atlantic hurricane names are much better anyways.

[CrazyC83]

I'm really thinking now that 2000 might be the best recent analog.

[DANKENGINE420]

ditto crazyc83 along with 2006

[Hurricaneman]

2009 might also be a good analog too as I believe as of late that maybe a moderate to strong El Niño will happen as we enter the peak of the hurricane season so I’m leaning towards the lower end of my numbers and I maybe not low enough on my numbers so we’ll see

[tarheelprogrammer]

My early thoughts are 19-9-4 with two cat fives and another cat 4 landfall on the US. I believe there will be 5 US hurricane landfall. 2 of those landfalls will be major hurricanes. One will hit along the east coast and one in the Gulf of Mexico.

[Bocadude85]

2009 might also be a good analog too as I believe as of late that maybe a moderate to strong El Niño will happen as we enter the peak of the hurricane season so I’m leaning towards the lower end of my numbers and I maybe not low enough on my numbers so we’ll see

I really do not think a strong El Niño is in the cards for this year, I am thinking we will be warm neutral and a average to slightly above average season is in the cards.

[CyclonicFury]

2009 might also be a good analog too as I believe as of late that maybe a moderate to strong El Niño will happen as we enter the peak of the hurricane season so I’m leaning towards the lower end of my numbers and I maybe not low enough on my numbers so we’ll see

I really do not think a strong El Niño is in the cards for this year, I am thinking we will be warm neutral and a average to slightly above average season is in the cards.

It is historically unusual to see a sharp transition from La Niña to El Niño. With a positive SOI at the moment and the Niño 3.4 region still running around -0.7C below normal, I doubt we will see anything more than a weak El Niño at most. It’s possible we could get warm neutral during the season and El Niño developing afterwards, which would likely really only impact the end of the season.

[Kingarabian]

2009 might also be a good analog too as I believe as of late that maybe a moderate to strong El Niño will happen as we enter the peak of the hurricane season so I’m leaning towards the lower end of my numbers and I maybe not low enough on my numbers so we’ll see

I really do not think a strong El Niño is in the cards for this year, I am thinking we will be warm neutral and a average to slightly above average season is in the cards.

It is historically unusual to see a sharp transition from La Niña to El Niño. With a positive SOI at the moment and the Niño 3.4 region still running around -0.7C below normal, I doubt we will see anything more than a weak El Niño at most. It’s possible we could get warm neutral during the season and El Niño developing afterwards, which would likely really only impact the end of the season.

Don't look at the SOI right now. The pressures in Darwin are skewered due to the recent influx of TC activity.

[NotSparta]

2009 might also be a good analog too as I believe as of late that maybe a moderate to strong El Niño will happen as we enter the peak of the hurricane season so I’m leaning towards the lower end of my numbers and I maybe not low enough on my numbers so we’ll see

Even a moderate El Niño would be difficult to get by peak season, it would mean nearly 2°C of warming in only 5-6 months. That's very unusual. Besides, there would need to be a lot of atmospheric coupling for that to happen, and I'm not seeing too much of that, either.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I agree no elnino this season. And the Atl will have the normal active season.

[CyclonicFury]

I really do not think a strong El Niño is in the cards for this year, I am thinking we will be warm neutral and a average to slightly above average season is in the cards.

It is historically unusual to see a sharp transition from La Niña to El Niño. With a positive SOI at the moment and the Niño 3.4 region still running around -0.7C below normal, I doubt we will see anything more than a weak El Niño at most. It’s possible we could get warm neutral during the season and El Niño developing afterwards, which would likely really only impact the end of the season.

Don't look at the SOI right now. The pressures in Darwin are skewered due to the recent influx of TC activity.

Do you think El Niño is likely?