Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Shell Mound]

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2017/12/2017-12.pdf (p. 12)

2nd year with La Niña Conditions [since 1950]: 1955, 1971, 1974, 1975, 1984, 1999, 2000, 2011
Following Year ASO ONI: -0.5, 1.6, -1.4, 0.6, -0.4, -0.5, -0.2, 0.3 [mean: -0.1]

n = 8 (# of years)
ASO = August, September, October; Aug–Oct period
ONI = Oceanic Niño Index

Cool ENSO (La Niña): 3
Cool neutral ENSO: 2
Warm neutral ENSO: 1
Warm ENSO (El Niño): 2

Neutral or cool ENSO: 6 (75%)
Warm ENSO: 2 (25%)

Based solely on these statistics, neutral or cool ENSO would seem to be heavily favoured for the peak (ASO) of the upcoming 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Of course, there are many other factors to be considered besides climatology. Of the two El Niño events in the sample (1972, 1976), the former materialised as a strong event by ASO, the latter as a weak one. So only one out of the eight years sampled featured a +ENSO event of moderate or stronger status by ASO.

Tracks of All Storms (Tropical-Storm-Status or Stronger) for the Years Listed Above
(Years: 1956, 1972, 1975, 1976, 1985, 2000, 2001, 2012)



Left to right: ASO SST anomalies in 2000, 2001, and 2012; difference between ASO 500-mb heights in select years; difference between SST anomalies.



Since the +AMO has recently strengthened, I would give more weight to the +AMO samples (2000, 2001, and 2012, especially 2012, the most + of the years listed). For ASO of 2018, a stronger +AMO, (cool) neutral ENSO, slightly -NAO, warm Eastern-Seaboard SSTs, and more -PDO relative to recent years would 1) extend the Newfoundland ridging farther SW, 2) produce a weaker trough (and TUTT axis) over the far N Atlantic, and 3) shift the subtropical ridge farther NE. This would lower MSLP in the deep tropics and delay recurvature of storms that pass near the U.S., hence a westward shift in boxed tracks (mainly the leftmost box) relative to those shown in the first chart. This would mean an increased threat to the FL peninsula, GA, the Carolinas, and Cuba, while retaining the threat to the (rest of the) western Caribbean, eastern Gulf of Mexico, and mainland MX. Interestingly, the data suggest that TX might well see a break in this pattern.

This is VERY early and in no way is an official forecast!

[chaser1]

Even purely as conjecture, there's are some sound points there that one could make such a case regarding the upcoming Hurricane Season. I have a slightly different takeaway that could be a potential result, assuming that conditions will actually prove out to be favorable for heightened tropical development (especially in the lower latitudes), and with the suggestion of a potentially weaker TUTT and increased W. Atlantic Ridging. My thought is that something that could play out might look a little like two distinct groupings of tropical cyclone tracks. One being a cluster of East to West lower latitude "Caribbean Racers". The most of which might suggest greatest risk to the Windward's, Central America, and perhaps Yucatan. A second cluster of tracks might include those storms later in the season that are also fairly "East to West" but at a higher latitude and perhaps may attempt to more sharply turn pole-ward..... but only after reaching 75W-80W approx. These tracks would certainly suggest greater peril to W. Haiti, Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas, and points northward along the E. Conus Seaboard. Seems to me that those "possibly" off the hook from those duel track patterns might be Texas and most points W. of Mobile maybe? Course, even here one has to assume the typical risk of a closer in "home-brew" type development that can always occur.

[SFLcane]

well.....it's way early to even begin to speculate on this upcoming hurricane season but if i was a betting man i'd go with another hyper active season with multiple landfalls in the continental united states. Let's see how things look in may.

[Patrick99]

well.....it's way early to even begin to speculate on this upcoming hurricane season but if i was a betting man i'd go with another hyper active season with multiple landfalls in the continental united states. Let's see how things look in may.

I keep predicting another threat to Florida from the south in October. One of these years, I am going to be right.

[cycloneye]

Wouldn't be so sure this early the upcomming season will be very active or Hyperactive as there is volatilty going on with ENSO (See ENSO Updates thread) as anything can happen from having cool Neutral,Warm Neutral to getting a weak to moderate El Niño by ASO so is better to wait until May to see where things stand on that factor.

[Hurricaneman]

The subsurface in the ENSO regions doesn’t say El Niño but a neutral of some kind for the 2018 hurricane season is quite likely, but that could change but the am not predicting an El Niño at this time

The Atlantic MDR seems to have cooled some which could be a negative for this year if it continues but the Caribbean is still well above normal which could make that the spot to watch if it continues

The subtropical Atlantic is well above normal which could put higher pressures farther south compared to normal which could also limit the MDR due to a more stable environment but the subtropics could have some decent hurricanes

The EPAC MDR is a good amount below normal which could lead to another year where activity in the EPAC is below normal but could also enhance activity in the Caribbean if this continues

So based on some things a year similar to 2016 could be in the cards but farther west like 2005 with the tracks and my prelim numbers are now

17/8/3

[Pressure]

So this is how things are at present:

ENSO:
The La Niña event looks to have peaked and is now declining
The suburface anoms have weakened some and the anoms are evening out across the subsurface equatorial Pacific
Also, the EPac MDR is pretty cool and looks to stay that way, which might enhance activity in the Caribbean.

My gut:
Very even ~0.0 Neutral ENSO for AHS
The MDR would maybe make one or two hurricanes at best, the real action would be further west
I have a feeling that there is a good chance that theres a classic Carib cruiser or something that rides the East coast,
also have some inkling as Patrick99 said, that something would barrel up Cuba and hit florida in October.

Some storms that might be similar to this year’s:

Dolly (2008)- Some GoM action
Wilma (2005)- that FL storm
Irene (2011)- E coast?
Lili (2002)- Cruiser
Georges (1998)- that one storm from the MDR?



Numbers (preliminary of course)

15NS
9H
6MH

[Hurricaneman]

Here is my full hurricane forecast for 2018

March 16 2018

There are many factors that could make this season more or less active and looking at things I have to look at the SOI, EPAC MDR, ENSO, and many other factors and here’s my opinion on this

ENSO: looks as though this is the major hang up in my forecast right now as there seems to be conflicting signals but am leaning towards neutral with a blend of the models and maybe an El Niño but if we get an El Niño will it lean madoki or traditional that would be the question especially if the WWBs stay near or west of the date line so right now I will say this could be a positive for activity

SOI: seems to be positive right now but the pattern looks to be in a positive SOI pattern which would slow down the outset of El Niño but the thing is if or when the SOI goes negative whether it is short term then back to positive or long term leading to an El Niño that’s going to be the question

EPAC MDR: seems to be on the cool side and the fact that the WWBs seem to be near or west of the date line and forecast to be for the foreseeable future should keep the trades going in that region keeping the EPAC MDR cooler which could lead to a more active hurricane season

Atlantic MDR: should be above normal and with the negative NAO it should lead to continued warming which could also lead to an active hurricane season

SAL: if the NAO remains negative it could mean less SAL in the MDR also leading to more moisture in the MDR which also means more tropical systems

NAO: not only could a negative NAO which I’m expecting overall with some times of positive anomalies but not only do I think that will lead to many MDR storms but possibly a few of those going up the east coast and those that go farther south into Florida or the GOM

Highest risk
Eastern seaboard
Florida
Eastern GOM
NE Lesser Antilles
Central GOM
Jamaica
Cuba

Moderate Risk
Bermuda
Puerto Rico
Hispaniola
Western GOM
Mexico
Honduras

Low risk
Southern Lesser Antilles
ABC islands
Northern South America
Belize
Guatemala
Costa Rica
Panama

As for numbers

Named storms 12 to 25
Hurricanes. 5 to 15
Majors. 2 to 8

These numbers are depending on what type of El Niño we get or if we stay neutral also will depend on the EPAC MDR

Also low risk doesn’t mean no risk so even if I’m a low risk area you should still be prepared

[Shell Mound]

If El Niño were to emerge, I would expect an early start, then a declivity (decrease in activity), as is typical. In this scenario, expect activity to be strongly weighted toward the preseason, as well as toward the pre-peak period. May, June, and July could be active, perhaps along with August. September and later would be comparatively dead. (The opposite occurs in the Pacific, which, during El Niño, often features a dead preseason, then an active peak season, like La Niña years in the Atlantic.) While El Niño typically coincides with a +PDO and hence weaker Bermuda High, meaning more out-to-sea tracks, sometimes a -PDO develops in tandem with +ENSO, which implies a stronger ridge than is typical for El Niño. In this case, the tendency for more development in the subtropics, owing to stronger shear over the Caribbean and MDR vs. high latitudes, could present threats to Canada, should blocking ridging be in place. If the MDR remains fairly warm, then at least a few strong hurricanes are likely, despite relatively low overall activity. Additionally, homegrown spin-ups in the Gulf of Mexico and along the East Coast are more common in years that feature little activity in the Caribbean and MDR. So I would not dismiss the threat to the U.S. at all, and would even highlight an increased threat to the Maritimes. While the risk of a major hurricane decreases substantially in El Niño years, weaker, homegrown threats can produce tornadoes and heavy rainfall, or bring unusually high winds to unprepared areas.

[Dougiefresh]

How credible is the 'Global Weather Oscillations' prediction? Apparently they were correct in calling for an above average season last year and they claim this year will be just as bad.

[StruThiO]

How credible is the 'Global Weather Oscillations' prediction? Apparently they were correct in calling for an above average season last year and they claim this year will be just as bad.

about as credible as me predicting sixteen tropical systems in the Mediterranean ocean, all active at the same time and fujiwhara effecting their way to category six intensity over the balmy Russian arctic

[OuterBanker]

How credible is the 'Global Weather Oscillations' prediction? Apparently they were correct in calling for an above average season last year and they claim this year will be just as bad.

I just wish someone would purchase a basic package for their area and see what's included. But, at 150.00 for basic I don't know of anyone that has that much disposable income.

They have posted one of their zone predictions from last year, but it seems awfully short for the money.

I do think you probably have to be from that NY town to really chance it. (Flushing).

[Alyono]

How credible is the 'Global Weather Oscillations' prediction? Apparently they were correct in calling for an above average season last year and they claim this year will be just as bad.

I just wish someone would purchase a basic package for their area and see what's included. But, at 150.00 for basic I don't know of anyone that has that much disposable income.

They have posted one of their zone predictions from last year, but it seems awfully short for the money.

I do think you probably have to be from that NY town to really chance it. (Flushing).

150 is not that much to spend. I would not, however, as I can get a seasonal forecast with areas of enhanced risk for free by sliding my chair over to my boss' desk

[Dougiefresh]

How credible is the 'Global Weather Oscillations' prediction? Apparently they were correct in calling for an above average season last year and they claim this year will be just as bad.

I just wish someone would purchase a basic package for their area and see what's included. But, at 150.00 for basic I don't know of anyone that has that much disposable income.

They have posted one of their zone predictions from last year, but it seems awfully short for the money.

I do think you probably have to be from that NY town to really chance it. (Flushing).

Yea, I was seriously thinking about purchasing the basic package but like you said $150.00 for it is steep. Plus I live in Barbados so to spend $150.00 to find out that like normal, nothing major is going to affect us, doesn't seem to add up for me.

[StruThiO]

How credible is the 'Global Weather Oscillations' prediction? Apparently they were correct in calling for an above average season last year and they claim this year will be just as bad.

I just wish someone would purchase a basic package for their area and see what's included. But, at 150.00 for basic I don't know of anyone that has that much disposable income.

They have posted one of their zone predictions from last year, but it seems awfully short for the money.

I do think you probably have to be from that NY town to really chance it. (Flushing).

Yea, I was seriously thinking about purchasing the basic package but like you said $150.00 for it is steep. Plus I live in Barbados so to spend $150.00 to find out that like normal, nothing major is going to affect us, doesn't seem to add up for me.

It's just IMPOSSIBLE to know this far out what they claim to know - storm count, intensity, tracks, etc.

[CyclonicFury]

I have released a 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on my blog:
https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2018/03/20 ... utlookmar/
My forecast calls for 11-16 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, 2-4 major hurricanes and an ACE of 125 +/- 50 units.

[Kazmit]

I have released a 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on my blog:
https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2018/03/20 ... utlookmar/
My forecast calls for 11-16 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, 2-4 major hurricanes and an ACE of 125 +/- 50 units.

Nice blog. I also agree with your predictions for the most part. A slightly above average season seems the most likely to me.

[stormlover2013]

I don't like the 11-16 storms I hate when experts make a prediction that big...just say 14-16

[CyclonicFury]

I have released a 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on my blog:
https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2018/03/20 ... utlookmar/
My forecast calls for 11-16 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, 2-4 major hurricanes and an ACE of 125 +/- 50 units.

Nice blog. I also agree with your predictions for the most part. A slightly above average season seems the most likely to me.

Thanks!

[OuterBanker]

JB`s first post 2018 (public post).
https://www.weatherbell.com/hurricane-prelim