Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#181 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue May 22, 2018 9:23 am

On my blog, I have released my May forecast update. I have lowered my numbers due to the persistent -AMO and +PMM pattern along with the chance of a weak El Niño to form late in the season. https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2018/05/22/2018atloutlookmay/
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#182 Postby SoupBone » Wed May 23, 2018 3:33 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:On my blog, I have released my May forecast update. I have lowered my numbers due to the persistent -AMO and +PMM pattern along with the chance of a weak El Niño to form late in the season. https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2018/05/22/2018atloutlookmay/


You think El Nino will have a noticeable effect on the season?
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#183 Postby StruThiO » Wed May 23, 2018 3:35 pm

:uarrow: think it's increasingly unlikely. here we are in late May with cool neutral still, the warm subsurface is absolutely there but atmosphere just doesn't seem to want to cooperate
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#184 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 23, 2018 3:45 pm

StruThiO wrote::uarrow: think it's increasingly unlikely. here we are in late May with cool neutral still, the warm subsurface is absolutely there but atmosphere just doesn't seem to want to cooperate


There's more warmth in the subsurface than 2009 and 2006 and both of those years Nino's started late. It's still entirely possible that we get an El Nino during the season or towards the end.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#185 Postby StruThiO » Wed May 23, 2018 3:50 pm

:uarrow: Yeah i should've prefaced that with saying that I don't know that much about ENSO, just my personal thoughts. Kingarabian is more knowledgeable than me by far
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#186 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 23, 2018 3:53 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
StruThiO wrote::uarrow: think it's increasingly unlikely. here we are in late May with cool neutral still, the warm subsurface is absolutely there but atmosphere just doesn't seem to want to cooperate


There's more warmth in the subsurface than 2009 and 2006 and both of those years Nino's started late. It's still entirely possible that we get an El Nino during the season or towards the end.


Nino 3.4 in 2009 was 0.5C warmer at this point than 2018. Not sure about 2006. The subsurface pool seems to be further west than both by a lot. Looks like a late forming, weak El Nino Modoki (or west-based El Nino), imo
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#187 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed May 23, 2018 11:38 pm

SoupBone wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:On my blog, I have released my May forecast update. I have lowered my numbers due to the persistent -AMO and +PMM pattern along with the chance of a weak El Niño to form late in the season. https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2018/05/22/2018atloutlookmay/


You think El Nino will have a noticeable effect on the season?

Possibly in the latter half of the season, but right now the atmospheric forcing is still very Niña-like.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#188 Postby LarryWx » Thu May 24, 2018 8:53 am

Kingarabian wrote:
StruThiO wrote::uarrow: think it's increasingly unlikely. here we are in late May with cool neutral still, the warm subsurface is absolutely there but atmosphere just doesn't seem to want to cooperate


There's more warmth in the subsurface than 2009 and 2006 and both of those years Nino's started late. It's still entirely possible that we get an El Nino during the season or towards the end.


I think getting El Niño by ASO is now highly unlikely based on the May Eurosip going with only warm neutral for ASO (near +0.35C) and considering the Eurosip solid warm bias. In 2005-17, it was always either too warm by at least one category (8 times) or it got the category right (5 times). It never was too cool by a category. If ASO were to end up weak El Niño, that would mean a first (too cool a category) going back to the first available Eurosip prediction (2005).
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#189 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 24, 2018 9:11 pm

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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#190 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 24, 2018 9:21 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:According to Joe Bastardi.

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/999802312100077571




While it makes sense why, people are still taking it as gospel
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#191 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 24, 2018 9:29 pm

NotSparta wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:According to Joe Bastardi.

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/999802312100077571




While it makes sense why, people are still taking it as gospel

I think it’s remotely possible that after this weekend we don’t see anything until August. I mean after all July is usually one of the quietest (if not the quietest) month in the Atlantic in terms of seeing tropical activity is concerned. June too on average I think sees one storm every other year if I’m correct but who knows. Of course what I’m interested in is what does he see that makes him say after the next 10 days? There has been some hints by the GFS in the long range of the CAG spewing out another storm as we enter June, we shall see.
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Re: Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#192 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:35 am

I have released my final 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast to my blog: https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2018/07/31 ... ticipated/

I now anticipate 10-13 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, 1-3 major hurricanes and an ACE of 80 +/- 20 units. This forecast includes the first three named storms that have already formed this year.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#193 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:33 am

TheStormExpert wrote:According to Joe Bastardi.

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/999802312100077571



It's becoming increasingly probable that the tropics will be quiet, period, in my humble opinion. Conditions are too hostile for even the MJO to overcome. As has been noted earlier, only the subtropics look to be conducive to development, and storms that form so far north are more likely than not to avoid U.S. impact, unless strong blocking ridging were to develop and preclude a seaward course. I'm even starting to doubt that we'll be able to eke out even one major hurricane. 2013 looks to be a decent analog at this point, given real-time data and model forecasts.
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Re: Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#194 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:49 am

I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you there. It's August 15th. We have had 5 named storms though obviously many of them were in the subtropics and horse latitudes. Still, it's August 15th. I'm more wondering how the season is going to evolve rather than throwing in the towel with a season-probably-cancelled post. 2002, which many feel like is a decent analog year, featured some later in the season storms. So I'm wondering if we're going to continue with a sporadic named storm every 2-3 weeks or if we're going to see some bursts in the Atlantic. If we do get any bursts, I don't see more than 2 (consisting of 2-3 storms) because everything seems to be pointing to a quieter than average season overall (particularly ACE). But I just don't wonder if we'll see maybe an Kelvin Wave or MJO Pulse to favorable in mid September and maybe a later hybrid/homegrown season into early October. It all remains to be seen.
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Re: Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#195 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:53 am

Steve wrote:I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you there. It's August 15th. We have had 5 named storms though obviously many of them were in the subtropics and horse latitudes. Still, it's August 15th. I'm more wondering how the season is going to evolve rather than throwing in the towel with a season-probably-cancelled post. 2002, which many feel like is a decent analog year, featured some later in the season storms. So I'm wondering if we're going to continue with a sporadic named storm every 2-3 weeks or if we're going to see some bursts in the Atlantic. If we do get any bursts, I don't see more than 2 (consisting of 2-3 storms) because everything seems to be pointing to a quieter than average season overall (particularly ACE). But I just don't wonder if we'll see maybe an Kelvin Wave or MJO Pulse to favorable in mid September and maybe a later hybrid/homegrown system into early October. It all remains to be seen.

Agreed. It's way too soon to just say a season will have no major hurricanes when the average first major hurricane does not form until September 4. 2018 also has 2 hurricanes, including a Category 2 - 2013 only had two Category 1 hurricanes, both in September, all season. September appears as if it will likely have a more favorable base state than August, and global model ensembles are starting to pick up on some MDR activity in the very long range.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#196 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:51 am

Shell Mound wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:According to Joe Bastardi.

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/999802312100077571



It's becoming increasingly probable that the tropics will be quiet, period, in my humble opinion. Conditions are too hostile for even the MJO to overcome. As has been noted earlier, only the subtropics look to be conducive to development, and storms that form so far north are more likely than not to avoid U.S. impact, unless strong blocking ridging were to develop and preclude a seaward course. I'm even starting to doubt that we'll be able to eke out even one major hurricane. 2013 looks to be a decent analog at this point, given real-time data and model forecasts.


Keep in mind a large part of the reason it's been quiet is, like 2014, we're in a warm neutral and it appears that the Atlantic tends to need the MJO more, but it's essentially been stuck in the Pacific, so to say it's too hostile even for the MJO doesn't make sense when the lack of an MJO pulse here is likely contributing to the hostile conditions.
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Re: Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#197 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:08 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
Steve wrote:I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you there. It's August 15th. We have had 5 named storms though obviously many of them were in the subtropics and horse latitudes. Still, it's August 15th. I'm more wondering how the season is going to evolve rather than throwing in the towel with a season-probably-cancelled post. 2002, which many feel like is a decent analog year, featured some later in the season storms. So I'm wondering if we're going to continue with a sporadic named storm every 2-3 weeks or if we're going to see some bursts in the Atlantic. If we do get any bursts, I don't see more than 2 (consisting of 2-3 storms) because everything seems to be pointing to a quieter than average season overall (particularly ACE). But I just don't wonder if we'll see maybe an Kelvin Wave or MJO Pulse to favorable in mid September and maybe a later hybrid/homegrown system into early October. It all remains to be seen.

Agreed. It's way too soon to just say a season will have no major hurricanes when the average first major hurricane does not form until September 4. 2018 also has 2 hurricanes, including a Category 2 - 2013 only had two Category 1 hurricanes, both in September, all season. September appears as if it will likely have a more favorable base state than August, and global model ensembles are starting to pick up on some MDR activity in the very long range.


Most seasons I end up debating posters like Cyclone Mike and others when they lose patience with the pace of things. It's usually around this time of year where models aren't showing anything as we are getting closer to the heart of the season. But of course there are often situations where a system pops up in a way that was never depicted in the globals. And last year, the debate ended as Harvey moved across the Yucatan toward S TX. I'm not totally discounting what Shell Mound has said, and I think his/her post was reasonable. While we may only get 5-6 more named storms (give or take), there's liable to be more action than what Shell Mount seems to be suggesting.
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Re: Early Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#198 Postby StruThiO » Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:11 pm

Shell Mound wrote:2013 looks to be a decent analog at this point, given real-time data and model forecasts


I also respectfully disagree. While this season looks close to a cancel as of now there are indications September may become more favorable. Depending on when this nino finally decides to get going October could be more favorable too. It's just too early to call 2013. That being said, I understand where you're coming from and I respect your opinion.
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Re: Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#199 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:17 pm

we've already had 2 hurricanes this year. Not exactly a 2013
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Re: Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

#200 Postby NotSparta » Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:55 pm

Alyono wrote:we've already had 2 hurricanes this year. Not exactly a 2013


I don't remember 2013 having a Cat 2 or hurricanes in July
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