Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#41 Postby Andrew92 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:58 pm

Keep in mind, if there is no El Nino, there may be more parallels for next year to a season like 2000. That year actually came three years after the last El Nino, like where next year would fall. That was a busy year, but you may recall the strongest storms, except for Keith, stayed away from land for the most part. However, Keith was "that one" for Central America (Belize to be more precise, and perhaps Mexico to a lesser degree) that made that year memorable.

Still, the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico showed plenty of flashes of potential that year. Beryl, Gordon, and Helene should all come to mind too when remembering that year, no matter how strong they were.

-Andrew92
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#42 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:46 pm

FireRat wrote:I've been hearing around that next season could be a strong follow-up to 2017, similar to how the 2005 season did after the 2004 season. 1995-1996 and 1998-1999 are other good examples of this phenomenon, basically hurricanes tend to come in bunches and two back-to-back active seasons is a fairly common occurrence.

Based on this, it will be likelier than normal for 2018 to be very active on the heels of 2017. However, there is an outside chance that the active duo was 2016-2017 instead, and this would make the chances go down for 2018 a bit maybe to "normal". We'll see...

Could we also consider the possibility that 2016 was equivalent to 2003 where 2017 was equivalent to 2004?

Definitely not saying there is a good chance of seeing a 2005 type season in terms of numbers but even a high impact season with 2010’s numbers would be extremely devastating.

There is also the chance that since this would potentially be the third year after an El Niño (assuming one doesn’t form) that the Atlantic would not be as favorable similar to 2012 and to a lesser extent 2011.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#43 Postby Andrew92 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:40 pm

2004 was a Modoki El Nino. Pretty sure 2017 was not.

Had 2017 been a Modoki, I would be far more nervous about 2018 leaving this year. But you never know sometimes, best to be ready just in case.

-Andrew92
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#44 Postby NotSparta » Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:45 am

Andrew92 wrote:2004 was a Modoki El Nino. Pretty sure 2017 was not.

Had 2017 been a Modoki, I would be far more nervous about 2018 leaving this year. But you never know sometimes, best to be ready just in case.

-Andrew92


Well, I may be wrong, but this ENSO is more similar to a Modoki El Nino than at first glance. It was an East based La Nina, meaning cooler waters near South America and warmer waters further offshore. Looking at purely anomalies, they look different, but in terms of temperatures, they are more similar, if cooler.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#45 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:20 pm

Until about August this year was actually closer to an El Niño madoki than one would think and was close to being declared when the cooling happened so I would call 2017 a pseudo El Niño madoki year and pseudo La Niña year so it’s possible that we could have the effects of a year after a madoki type season in 2018
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#46 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:54 pm

It seems the best analogs right now are 1944, 1955, 1975, 1985, 2000, 2005 and 2012. A lot of 5's in there?
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#47 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:14 am

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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#48 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:21 am

TheStormExpert wrote:https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/943281189569384456


I'm sorry, but current trends are not encouraging. Despite a clearly positive NAO, the far North Atlantic has actually warmed over the past week, with similar expansion of warm anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. For the first time since 2010, we are in late December and the cold pool in the far North Atlantic, if anything, seems to have weakened relative to earlier in 2017. This is the exact opposite of what has been happening around this time of year since 2010 (certainly since at least 2013). We are seeing a maintenance or strengthening of the (+)AMO signal as we progress further into early winter, despite the NAO being positive over the past week and a half, which would normally tend to cool both the far North and tropical Atlantic, owing to stronger polar westerlies and enhanced low-level trades over the deep tropics. The next image below is highly revealing and indicative of the changes that have been occurring recently, relative to what we have grown accustomed to since 2010 (and especially since 2013). It is doubly disturbing for those hoping for a quiet 2018 season.

Image

This chart is a very good illustration of recent trends. The period 1—17 December 2017 shows significant warming of the far North Atlantic and Mean Development Region (MDR) compared to 1—17 December 2014—16. This means that the same period for this year is far warmer in the aforementioned regions than in the preceding three years. The cold pool in the far North Atlantic still exists, but at this point it is weaker than it has ever been since at least 2014. Indeed, it was weaker overall in 2017 than in the preceding three years. What is interesting is that the rate of Greenland ice melt and freshening of the far North Atlantic has kept its tempo or accelerated, yet the impact on the SST anomalies seems to be lessening, with the tropical Atlantic warming faster than the far North Atlantic. This is interesting, because North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) percolates southward into the tropics on a seasonal timescale, yet despite a cold North Atlantic this past spring, there was little to no effect (cooling) in the tropical Atlantic. A similar disconnect between cool North Atlantic and warm tropical Atlantic was noted in 2016.

In any event, just as the AMO warmed dramatically in the summer of 2016, so did it respond in the summer of 2017, going from negative to near-neutral/slightly positive by the time peak season arrived.

This raises a number of questions as the earth warms due to climate change, whatever its causes:

*Increased variability: ceteris paribus (all things being equal), will there be faster SST Δ (+/– fluctuations), both on the short- and long-term scales, due to climate change?
*Under climate changes, global SSTs are warming, including in the tropics. Does tropical-Atlantic +Δ SST negate far-N-Atlantic –Δ SST (↑ NADW)?
*Do 2016—17 show that we are seeing a decoupling of tropical-Atlantic from far-N-Atlantic SST, hence "classic" +/- AMO signatures no longer apply?
*As a result, will we see fewer classic +/– AMO cases and more “bipolar” situations, with a cool far N Atlantic and warm tropical Atlantic side by side?
*Could we see more variability in the intensity of seasons? Will active/inactive seasons generate more/less ACE than similar years in the past?
*If the far N Atlantic and the tropical Atlantic are indeed decoupling, what could be offsetting ↑ NADW / weakening THC (normally an -AMO indicator) in the tropics?

Δ = Change
↑ = Increase

The suspense increases. If we don't get El Niño, I personally believe 2018 could be historic, in terms of ACE and landfalls, not overall storm totals (though I'd suspect those totals might well be a bit higher than in 2017, say, nineteen to twenty-one named storms, but not entering the Greek alphabet). ACE could well approach or top 1933 if everything lines up. I don't think 2000 is a good analog. We are in a new era, and conditions are unpredictable, as always. I think the main negative factor that could prevent a big year in 2018 is ENSO, but that's about it.

 https://twitter.com/VoluntaryOnly/status/943481823304339457




19 December 2013 SST anomalies
18 December 2014 SST anomalies
17 December 2015 SST anomalies
19 December 2016 SST anomalies
18 December 2017 SST anomalies

These data confirm that the far North Atlantic is currently the warmest it has been since 2013.

Note: I am not a Pro Met and I respect people who have other perspectives. I hope that my assessment of the situation turns out to be false! 8-)
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#49 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:25 am

With regards to 2004/2005 comparisons, it seems to be a once an AMO phase deal.

1886 was landfall heavy, 1887 was the hyperactive one.

1932 was landfall heavy, 1933 was the hyperactive one.

2004 was landfall heavy, 2005 was the hyperactive one.

We're still in the active phase of the AMO obviously, so I don't buy 2017=2004 comparison. With no clear indicator of an El Nino, I think my default prediction be for a less extreme version of 2017.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#50 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:31 am

Wrote a blog about my thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season at: https://cyclonicfury.com/2018atloutlookdec/. I'm not giving numbers at this advanced stage, only probabilities of activity. Basically, I think we have a higher chance of an above average season than a near or below average season.

Please keep in mind I'm not a meteorologist (yet), though I have been researching tropical weather for several years now.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#51 Postby Andrew92 » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:10 am

Here's another thought that's crossed my mind. Remember all the comparisons for the SST profile last year to that of 2005? I think one could argue that, other than the crazy number of storms, there were some similarities between the two years as well.

For one thing, there were just three hurricanes south of 20 degrees this year: Irma, Jose, and Maria. In 2005, there were Dennis, Emily, Philippe (barely), Stan (also barely), Wilma, and Beta. Although more overall in 2005, the quality wasn't really that different if you think about it. Beta was also not a hurricane for a long period of time.

Other similarities include a general focus on the Gulf with Harvey, Irma, Katia, and Nate (compare to Cindy, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma); an occasional East Coast threat that didn't amount to much (like Jose and Maria being compared to Ophelia, though Ophelia does count as a hurricane hit despite no landfall, unlike the two from this year); and several storms in both years recurving far out at sea. The EPAC in both years was also busier than most La Nina years. It appears that in the regions where hurricanes form is where SSTs were just warm enough and favorable enough to sustain such storms once in a while.

Therefore, who is to say that 2018 can't be an El Nino, if 2006 was one? I say it's very possible. And the whole talk of 2017 being a Modoki, I reviewed the overall profile for the season and I just don't quite see it. Anomalies at each latitude were pretty consistent from the EPAC to the CPAC. Therefore, I do not think 2018 will fall as the first year as a Modoki as a result. But nobody can let their guard down next year either. 1983 should be Exhibit A for the truth that it only takes one.

-Andrew92
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#52 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:50 am

Going to be 2018 in less than 24 hours. However, we still have about five months to go until the hurricane season actually starts, and about seven and half months until the active part of the season. Barring a very rare storm like Alex or Arlene,we likely won't see Alberto for another 4-5 months at least.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#53 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:14 am

Happy New Year! Now 2018 in EST. 5 months to go.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#54 Postby FireRat » Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:26 pm

2018 is here!! Will it be a 2006 or a 2005? certainly a lot of possibilities ranging from near-normal to beast-mode.

It seems the safe bet is that it likely won't be a slow year! If there's no El Nino, and worse a neutral phase, then we can have a calamitous 2005 style season in the sense that it could be both busy and impactful on land! Hope not mates! We are playing catch up it seems, those warm SSTs surely point to risks. 2003 being like 2016 is also an interesting point, if that's the case, then more points for a busy 2018. Gonna be interesting times ahead.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#55 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:34 am

A new month with January and things are not clear cut for an above average season, the SOI has tanked and the subsurface seems to be warming quite a bit in the ENSO regions so this La Niña probably will become an El Niño in the summer months but the warm waters around Australia might keep the SOI from going very negative like below -10 for 30 and 90 Days and wouldn’t be surprised if it changed back positive at some point the next few months so here are my ranges based on what ENSO might do

9to23 named storms
3 to 14 hurricanes
1 to 8 major hurricanes

Will be closer to the high end if neutral to La Niña conditions persist but if an El Niño should develop then we might have to go towards the lower end so the main focus might be whether the SOI stays negative possibly causing a few WWBs upwelling the warmer subsurface to the surface or if we go back positive which would most likely keep the warm subsurface away from the surface and possibly move the subsurface warmth back west, we might have to wait until April to find out
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#56 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:47 am

Hurricaneman wrote:A new month with January and things are not clear cut for an above average season, the SOI has tanked and the subsurface seems to be warming quite a bit in the ENSO regions so this La Niña probably will become an El Niño in the summer months but the warm waters around Australia might keep the SOI from going very negative like below -10 for 30 and 90 Days and wouldn’t be surprised if it changed back positive at some point the next few months so here are my ranges based on what ENSO might do

9to23 named storms
3 to 14 hurricanes
1 to 8 major hurricanes

Will be closer to the high end if neutral to La Niña conditions persist but if an El Niño should develop then we might have to go towards the lower end so the main focus might be whether the SOI stays negative possibly causing a few WWBs upwelling the warmer subsurface to the surface or if we go back positive which would most likely keep the warm subsurface away from the surface and possibly move the subsurface warmth back west, we might have to wait until April to find out

I think that if we do get an El Niño, it will be weak and not really effect the Atlantic much until the second half of the season.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#57 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:07 am

I have found that many professional forecasters and amateur forecasters love to wishcast El Nino. They do the same thing every year, but I have *never* heard any of the same talk for La Nina. There must be a reason why all these folks continually look for El Nino and are pretty much sticking to their forecasts for El Nino until they can't deny it any more and basically a La Nina is already in progress.

We may still see an El Nino for Northern Hemisphere summer but given the calendar date today, and the available time remaining, it seems a full bore Nino is unlikely for peak hurricane season.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#58 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:26 am

GeneratorPower wrote:I have found that many professional forecasters and amateur forecasters love to wishcast El Nino. They do the same thing every year, but I have *never* heard any of the same talk for La Nina. There must be a reason why all these folks continually look for El Nino and are pretty much sticking to their forecasts for El Nino until they can't deny it any more and basically a La Nina is already in progress.

We may still see an El Nino for Northern Hemisphere summer but given the calendar date today, and the available time remaining, it seems a full bore Nino is unlikely for peak hurricane season.

I agree that a full blown El Niño is unlikely, based on past climatology it is rare to see a quick transition from La Niña to El Niño (the opposite is common however). ENSO-Neutral is the most likely scenario for 2018, but a weak, late-developing El Niño similar to 2006 is not out of the question. It’s not very likely we will see a third La Niña year in a row. However, climatology will likely favor El Niño returning by 2019-20 if it does not form this year.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#59 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:27 am

imo ENSO seems to be the biggest wild card here, and while I don't think there will be a super or strong El Nino (even moderate seems a bit far), it could still make a big difference in the season. It's hard to predict for hurricane season at this point because of the SPB, so it'll have to be watched for the next few months to see what happens.
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Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

#60 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:16 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:I have found that many professional forecasters and amateur forecasters love to wishcast El Nino. They do the same thing every year, but I have *never* heard any of the same talk for La Nina. There must be a reason why all these folks continually look for El Nino and are pretty much sticking to their forecasts for El Nino until they can't deny it any more and basically a La Nina is already in progress.

We may still see an El Nino for Northern Hemisphere summer but given the calendar date today, and the available time remaining, it seems a full bore Nino is unlikely for peak hurricane season.

I agree that a full blown El Niño is unlikely, based on past climatology it is rare to see a quick transition from La Niña to El Niño (the opposite is common however). ENSO-Neutral is the most likely scenario for 2018, but a weak, late-developing El Niño similar to 2006 is not out of the question. It’s not very likely we will see a third La Niña year in a row. However, climatology will likely favor El Niño returning by 2019-20 if it does not form this year.


I think you're exactly right. 3 year La Ninas do occur historically, though they are more rare of course.
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