Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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cycloneye
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Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:07 pm

Here we go with the expert forecasts for the 2018 season.

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CSU --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 017-12.pdf --- December 13 --- Quantitative Discussion

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TSR --- http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... ec2018.pdf --- December 7 --- 15/7/3
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NOAA
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Crown Weather Services --- http://crownweather.com/index.php/a-ver ... ne-season/ --- November 30 --- 17/8/3
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Joe Bastardi
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#2 Postby crownweather » Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:40 pm

Our first call which was published at http://crownweather.com/index.php/a-very-early-look-at-the-2018-atlantic-gulf-of-mexico-caribbean-hurricane-season/ on November 30th is for:

17 Named Storms.
8 Hurricanes.
3 Major Hurricanes.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 09, 2017 2:11 pm

crownweather wrote:Our first call which was published at http://crownweather.com/index.php/a-very-early-look-at-the-2018-atlantic-gulf-of-mexico-caribbean-hurricane-season/ on November 30th is for:

17 Named Storms.
8 Hurricanes.
3 Major Hurricanes.


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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#4 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Dec 09, 2017 2:28 pm

The very early consensus appears heavily weighted to an average or above-average season. TSR's combined average and above-average probabilities add up to 79%, which is *somewhat* notable, for TSR has the best statistical record for long-range forecasting. A combined +AMO (or upward-trending AMO), -PDO (or downward-trending PDO), and neutral to cool ENSO, if sustained through peak season, would strongly suggest an above-average season, with ACE similar to or greater than in 2017. The NAO also needs to stay relatively suppressed to keep tropical-Atlantic SSTs warm throughout the spring. I would also keep in mind that the CFSv2 forecast has had a notable cool bias in the tropical Atlantic over the past few seasons.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#5 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:20 pm

:uarrow: CSU has released their qualitative discussion at https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2017/12/2017-12.pdf. Like TSR, they seem bullish on 2018. They think the +AMO will likely continue, and only give a 25% chance of El Nino development.

1. AMO becomes very strong in 2018 and no El Niño occurs (resulting in a seasonal
average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) activity of ~ 170) – 25% chance.
2. AMO is above average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 130) – 35% chance.
3. AMO is above average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 80) – 20% chance.
4. AMO is below average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 80) – 15% chance.
5. AMO is below average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 50) – 5% chance.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU Quantitative Discussion is up

#6 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:40 pm

The tricky aspect is that the AMO, while potentially still in the positive phase, has been highly unstable since 2012, thanks in part to record-low sea ice and correspondingly low levels of salinity in the far North Atlantic. Climate change (warming) can certainly influence the AMO and lead to a weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC), owing to the melting of Greenland ice sheets, but it is far from the only factor and seasonal variability is high. AMO is known to be quite dynamic and susceptible to a variety of feedback processes and forces. Over the past few seasons, the AMO has been in an unusual limbo: with above-average SSTs in the tropical Atlantic and rather cool SSTs in the far North Atlantic. This is a bit of a halfway house between "classic" positive and negative phases of the AMO. The classic +AMO signature, warm water, is present in the tropical Atlantic, while the cool pattern in the far North Atlantic resembles the -AMO. In 2017 both indicators were present, but other conducive indices apparently overcame the near-neutral AMO, leading to a very active season. However, the AMO, while not the only factor, is, along with ENSO, among the most important as far as Atlantic activity is concerned. One thing to watch is that climate change, at least in part, may serve to increase variability from year to year. That is, in some years the AMO may fluctuate wildly, from near-neutral or slightly positive to strongly negative, as well as vice versa, owing to sensitivity to ice melt, the NAO, polar winds, and many other factors, most of which are only indirectly tied to the background climate, but can be influenced by and act on it. In short, the upcoming season will be very tricky to forecast, as we are entering a new climate and, as always, the atmosphere and ocean remain extremely complex. As always, with or without climate change, there are many other factors to consider, and seasonal variability will always remain a factor.

Disclaimer: I am not a Pro Met, nor do I know everything.
Last edited by Shell Mound on Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#7 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:45 pm

CyclonicFury wrote::uarrow: CSU has released their qualitative discussion at https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2017/12/2017-12.pdf. Like TSR, they seem bullish on 2018. They think the +AMO will likely continue, and only give a 25% chance of El Nino development.

1. AMO becomes very strong in 2018 and no El Niño occurs (resulting in a seasonal
average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) activity of ~ 170) – 25% chance.
2. AMO is above average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 130) – 35% chance.
3. AMO is above average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 80) – 20% chance.
4. AMO is below average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 80) – 15% chance.
5. AMO is below average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 50) – 5% chance.

The second scenario (in bold) happened in 2017, yet the ACE of ~224 was far higher than 130. That clearly highlights the importance of other factors besides AMO and ENSO. Technically, the AMO was closest to neutral during peak season (August—October), being slightly above average at most, making the extreme activity of 2017 all the more remarkable. There should be a study to account for why some seasons are so explosive despite a seemingly weak or indecisive AMO signal. Plenty of other years with near-neutral (or slightly positive) AMO and cool neutral ENSO ended up near or below average in terms of activity, so the question is why 2017 finished as a top-ten ACE year with so many intense and destructive storms, as well as above-average storm totals.

Disclaimer: Feel free to answer my inquiry, as I am not a Pro Met. There is much that I don't know! :wink:
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#8 Postby NotSparta » Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:01 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote::uarrow: CSU has released their qualitative discussion at https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2017/12/2017-12.pdf. Like TSR, they seem bullish on 2018. They think the +AMO will likely continue, and only give a 25% chance of El Nino development.

1. AMO becomes very strong in 2018 and no El Niño occurs (resulting in a seasonal
average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) activity of ~ 170) – 25% chance.
2. AMO is above average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 130) – 35% chance.
3. AMO is above average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 80) – 20% chance.
4. AMO is below average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 80) – 15% chance.
5. AMO is below average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 50) – 5% chance.

The second scenario (in bold) happened in 2017, yet the ACE of ~224 was far higher than 130. That clearly highlights the importance of other factors besides AMO and ENSO. Technically, the AMO was closest to neutral during peak season (August—October), being slightly above average at most, making the extreme activity of 2017 all the more remarkable. There should be a study to account for why some seasons are so explosive despite a seemingly weak or indecisive AMO signal. Plenty of other years with near-neutral (or slightly positive) AMO and cool neutral ENSO ended up near or below average in terms of activity, so the question is why 2017 finished as a top-ten ACE year with so many intense and destructive storms, as well as above-average storm totals.

Disclaimer: Feel free to answer my inquiry, as I am not a Pro Met. There is much that I don't know! :wink:


Eh, while the AMO signal was neutral during the season, the MDR SST anomalies were that of a +AMO, so it would be better to put 2017 down as +AMO, imo
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