crownweather wrote:Our "Official" 2018 Hurricane Season Forecast is out at http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2018-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast/. A summary of what I'm thinking:
- Near Average Season with an ACE of 100 & the following numbers: 14 Storms, 7 Hurricanes & 3 Major Hurricanes.
- May or Early June western Atlantic Tropical Development.
- Warm Neutral ENSO or even a Weak El Nino developing later in the season.
- Area From North Carolina To Southern New England has a significant risk this season of a tropical storm/hurricane threat/landfall based on the overall pattern & using analog data.
- Also have concerns for the Eastern/Northeast Gulf of Mexico for tropical cyclone threats.
- The Caribbean Sea may be inactive this year due to higher than average shear & a slowly developing El Nino.
Soooo this sounds quite similar to joe b's outlook in terms of impacts this season. Its a guessing game to try to pin point down any threat areas 3-4 months out from the meat of the season. I'd say any kind of el-nino is highly unlikely this season i'am afraid so we shall see.