Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3302
Age: 40
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Pompano Beach, Florida

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#21 Postby SFLcane » Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:29 pm

crownweather wrote:Our "Official" 2018 Hurricane Season Forecast is out at http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2018-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast/. A summary of what I'm thinking:

- Near Average Season with an ACE of 100 & the following numbers: 14 Storms, 7 Hurricanes & 3 Major Hurricanes.
- May or Early June western Atlantic Tropical Development.
- Warm Neutral ENSO or even a Weak El Nino developing later in the season.
- Area From North Carolina To Southern New England has a significant risk this season of a tropical storm/hurricane threat/landfall based on the overall pattern & using analog data.
- Also have concerns for the Eastern/Northeast Gulf of Mexico for tropical cyclone threats.
- The Caribbean Sea may be inactive this year due to higher than average shear & a slowly developing El Nino.



Soooo this sounds quite similar to joe b's outlook in terms of impacts this season. Its a guessing game to try to pin point down any threat areas 3-4 months out from the meat of the season. I'd say any kind of el-nino is highly unlikely this season i'am afraid so we shall see.
1 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18122
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Comming up on April 5 (CSU / TSR)

#22 Postby wxman57 » Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:32 pm

Phil Klotbach will be broadcasting his outlook live from down here on S. Padre Island at the National Tropical Weather Conference tomorrow at 9am CDT. Here's the link:

https://www.facebook.com/NTWC2018
2 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5474
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#23 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:17 pm

crownweather wrote:Our "Official" 2018 Hurricane Season Forecast is out at http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2018-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast/. A summary of what I'm thinking:

- Near Average Season with an ACE of 100 & the following numbers: 14 Storms, 7 Hurricanes & 3 Major Hurricanes.
- May or Early June western Atlantic Tropical Development.
- Warm Neutral ENSO or even a Weak El Nino developing later in the season.
- Area From North Carolina To Southern New England has a significant risk this season of a tropical storm/hurricane threat/landfall based on the overall pattern & using analog data.
- Also have concerns for the Eastern/Northeast Gulf of Mexico for tropical cyclone threats.
- The Caribbean Sea may be inactive this year due to higher than average shear & a slowly developing El Nino.

What are your analog seasons?
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
crownweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 295
Age: 44
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:21 am
Location: Indian Orchard, Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#24 Postby crownweather » Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:14 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
crownweather wrote:Our "Official" 2018 Hurricane Season Forecast is out at http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2018-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast/. A summary of what I'm thinking:

- Near Average Season with an ACE of 100 & the following numbers: 14 Storms, 7 Hurricanes & 3 Major Hurricanes.
- May or Early June western Atlantic Tropical Development.
- Warm Neutral ENSO or even a Weak El Nino developing later in the season.
- Area From North Carolina To Southern New England has a significant risk this season of a tropical storm/hurricane threat/landfall based on the overall pattern & using analog data.
- Also have concerns for the Eastern/Northeast Gulf of Mexico for tropical cyclone threats.
- The Caribbean Sea may be inactive this year due to higher than average shear & a slowly developing El Nino.

What are your analog seasons?


Top analog years are 1960, 2003 and 1956.

Also, used the following analog years as well - 1985, 1996, 2011, 1976, 1958, 1989, 1984, 1954, 2006, 1975 and 1951.
2 likes   
Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114541
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Coming up on April 5 (CSU / TSR)

#25 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:32 pm

The Rob analogs have some Tropical Storms and Hurricanes that had affected Puerto Rico:

1956=Betsy
1960=Donna
1975=Eloise
1989=Hugo
1996=Bertha-Hortense
2011=Irene
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4406
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Coming up on April 5 (CSU / TSR)

#26 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:13 am

Looks like CSU is going with 14/7/3 on their 4/5/2018 atlantic season update.

Source: https://source.colostate.edu/slightly-a ... -csu-team/

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Last edited by WeatherEmperor on Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114541
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Coming up on April 5 (CSU / TSR)

#27 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:14 am

Image
3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114541
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU is up / TSR comming shortly

#28 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:40 am

Analog years by CSU:

1960
1967
1996
2006
2011
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 719
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Between Toronto and Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU is up / TSR comming shortly

#29 Postby NotSparta » Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:41 am

Looks like CSU is predicting weak El Nino or warm neutral and a cooler MDR
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1711
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU is up / TSR comming shortly

#30 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:58 am

Interestingly enough, they are calling for a cooler MDR.

Not sure how much impact it will have for the season.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114541
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU and TSR are up

#31 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 05, 2018 12:04 pm

TSR is up and they are on average season 12/6/2.Main factor for those low numbers are the cool ssts.

Summary:

TSR lowers its forecast and predicts Atlantic hurricane activity in 2018 will be about 15%
below the long-term average. However, forecast uncertainties remain large.
The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April forecast update anticipates North Atlantic hurricane activity in
2018 will be slightly below-norm. Based on current and projected climate signals, Atlantic basin tropical
cyclone activity is forecast to be about 15% below the 1950-2017 long-term norm and 25% below the
recent 2008-2017 10-year norm. The forecast spans the period from 1st June to 30th November 2018 and
employs data through to the end of March 2018. The main reason why the TSR forecast for North
Atlantic hurricane activity in 2018 has fallen by 30% since the extended range outlook issued in
December 2017 is the anticipation now for cooler sea surface temperatures during August-September
2018 in the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea than anticipated previously. However, it should be
stressed that the precision of hurricane outlooks issued in early April is low and that forecast uncertainties
remain large for the 2018 hurricane season.

http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... pr2018.pdf
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Shell Mound
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 309
Age: 26
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU and TSR are up

#32 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Apr 05, 2018 1:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:TSR is up and they are on average season 12/6/2.Main factor for those low numbers are the cool ssts.

Summary:

TSR lowers its forecast and predicts Atlantic hurricane activity in 2018 will be about 15%
below the long-term average. However, forecast uncertainties remain large.
The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April forecast update anticipates North Atlantic hurricane activity in
2018 will be slightly below-norm. Based on current and projected climate signals, Atlantic basin tropical
cyclone activity is forecast to be about 15% below the 1950-2017 long-term norm and 25% below the
recent 2008-2017 10-year norm. The forecast spans the period from 1st June to 30th November 2018 and
employs data through to the end of March 2018. The main reason why the TSR forecast for North
Atlantic hurricane activity in 2018 has fallen by 30% since the extended range outlook issued in
December 2017 is the anticipation now for cooler sea surface temperatures during August-September
2018 in the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea than anticipated previously. However, it should be
stressed that the precision of hurricane outlooks issued in early April is low and that forecast uncertainties
remain large for the 2018 hurricane season.

http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... pr2018.pdf

Good news, Luis. They don't expect any hurricanes to hit the Lesser Antilles in 2018 (see table four, page five). Hope that holds. 8-)
3 likes   
Tracking weather since 1992 | Following S2K since 2005

OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1446
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Coming up on April 5 (CSU / TSR)

#33 Postby OuterBanker » Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:https://i.imgur.com/KqD3dPm.jpg


Cyclone, of equal interest is the landfall probs for 2018. Looks like a general 20% increase for all the zones from what I have quickly scanned.
1 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5474
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU and TSR are up

#34 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Apr 05, 2018 3:41 pm

CSU with a slightly above average season while TSR goes down to an below average season being predicted. I’d split the difference and call for an average season.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Shell Mound
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 309
Age: 26
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU and TSR are up

#35 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Apr 06, 2018 9:55 am

Summary of the forecasts and Pro Mets' thoughts thus far:

*On balance, a near-average season. Relatively cool MDR. Warmest SSTs concentrated in Caribbean, Gulf, and subtropical Atlantic.
*Warm neutral ENSO to weak El Niño conditions are most probable by the peak of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.
*PDO, on balance, is likely to be positive over the long run. +PMM indicates EPAC may be quite active in 2018.
*The NAO may be positive by the peak of the Atlantic season, implying a stronger-than-average subtropical ridge.
*Vertical wind shear may be above average over the Caribbean and MDR. Development favoured in Gulf and subtropics?
*Steering pattern (analogs) may favour threats from the Carolinas to New England. Perhaps the E Gulf may see activity, too.

In short, a less active season than 2017. Threat shifts from Caribbean, W Gulf, and Florida (2017) to the E Gulf and the East Coast north of Georgia (2018).
2 likes   
Tracking weather since 1992 | Following S2K since 2005

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 719
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Between Toronto and Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU and TSR are up

#36 Postby NotSparta » Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:25 am

Shell Mound wrote:Summary of the forecasts and Pro Mets' thoughts thus far:

*On balance, a near-average season. Relatively cool MDR. Warmest SSTs concentrated in Caribbean, Gulf, and subtropical Atlantic.
*Warm neutral ENSO to weak El Niño conditions are most probable by the peak of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.
*PDO, on balance, is likely to be positive over the long run. +PMM indicates EPAC may be quite active in 2018.
*The NAO may be positive by the peak of the Atlantic season, implying a stronger-than-average subtropical ridge.
*Vertical wind shear may be above average over the Caribbean and MDR. Development favoured in Gulf and subtropics?
*Steering pattern (analogs) may favour threats from the Carolinas to New England. Perhaps the E Gulf may see activity, too.

In short, a less active season than 2017. Threat shifts from Caribbean, W Gulf, and Florida (2017) to the E Gulf and the East Coast north of Georgia (2018).



Umm, half of these are extremely uncertain
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5474
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU and TSR are up

#37 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:41 pm

:uarrow: These April pre-season predictions are kind of silly if you ask me. Likely what you see could happen now won’t actually happen during the peak season. Just take CSU’s April 2017 pre-season forecast calling for a weak-moderate El Niño putting quite a lid on things and supporting only a below average season at best. Of course that didn’t actually happen.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 719
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Between Toronto and Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU and TSR are up

#38 Postby NotSparta » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:00 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: These April pre-season predictions are kind of silly if you ask me. Likely what you see could happen now won’t actually happen during the peak season. Just take CSU’s April 2017 pre-season forecast calling for a weak-moderate El Niño putting quite a lid on things and supporting only a below average season at best. Of course that didn’t actually happen.


Probably one of the reasons NOAA doesn't do forecasts until May
1 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5474
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#39 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:51 pm

4 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2027
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Contact:

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#40 Postby chris_fit » Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:19 am

NCSU Hurricane Season 2018 Forecast Posted...

https://news.ncsu.edu/2018/04/2018-hurr ... rediction/


Named Storms: 14–18
Hurricanes: 7–11
Major: 3–5
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: jlauderdal and 6 guests