Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU: 12/5/1 (Includes Alberto,Beryl,Chris)

#101 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 02, 2018 1:54 pm

So in another words season cancelled per the CSU team with only 3 more hurricanes for the remainder of the hurricane season, it could be right or it could be a big bust if the MDR warms up in September and the weak warming in ENSO regions remains central based.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU: 12/5/1 (Includes Alberto,Beryl,Chris)

#102 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:00 pm

I think CSU's forecast is fairly reasonable. It would only take 9-3-1 for the rest of the season for it to verify, which I think is definitely achievable. I don't think 2018 is going to be one of the quietest seasons on record personally.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU: 12/5/1 (Includes Alberto,Beryl,Chris)

#103 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:21 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:I think CSU's forecast is fairly reasonable. It would only take 9-3-1 for the rest of the season for it to verify, which I think is definitely achievable. I don't think 2018 is going to be one of the quietest seasons on record personally.


The part where only 3 more hurricanes for the rest of the season is the part I am having a hard time agreeing with but who am I to question the experts :lol:
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU: 12/5/1 (Includes Alberto,Beryl,Chris)

#104 Postby SoupBone » Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:40 pm

NDG wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:I think CSU's forecast is fairly reasonable. It would only take 9-3-1 for the rest of the season for it to verify, which I think is definitely achievable. I don't think 2018 is going to be one of the quietest seasons on record personally.


The part where only 3 more hurricanes for the rest of the season is the part I am having a hard time agreeing with but who am I to question the experts :lol:


From my round table discussions with our paid promets, MDR cooling, high shear in Caribbean, stable air in both Caribbean and Atlantic, current SAL (which we do know will dissipate soon), etc. are the various reasons they gave. Obviously all of that can change, as well all already know, but one of the few positive factors for development are the high GoM SST's.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU: 12/5/1 (Includes Alberto,Beryl,Chris)

#105 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:15 pm

SoupBone wrote:
NDG wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:I think CSU's forecast is fairly reasonable. It would only take 9-3-1 for the rest of the season for it to verify, which I think is definitely achievable. I don't think 2018 is going to be one of the quietest seasons on record personally.


The part where only 3 more hurricanes for the rest of the season is the part I am having a hard time agreeing with but who am I to question the experts :lol:


From my round table discussions with our paid promets, MDR cooling, high shear in Caribbean, stable air in both Caribbean and Atlantic, current SAL (which we do know will dissipate soon), etc. are the various reasons they gave. Obviously all of that can change, as well all already know, but one of the few positive factors for development are the high GoM SST's.


And high western Caribbean SSTs where shear has not been that bad.

Image
Image
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU: 12/5/1 (Includes Alberto,Beryl,Chris)

#106 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:34 pm

Of course these waves would have to survive the long road out in front of it to even get there.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU: 12/5/1 (Includes Alberto,Beryl,Chris)

#107 Postby NotSparta » Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:02 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
From my round table discussions with our paid promets, MDR cooling, high shear in Caribbean, stable air in both Caribbean and Atlantic, current SAL (which we do know will dissipate soon), etc. are the various reasons they gave. Obviously all of that can change, as well all already know, but one of the few positive factors for development are the high GoM SST's.


And high western Caribbean SSTs where shear has not been that bad.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/58ZlBlv.png[/ig]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/GWVTabN.gif[/mg]

Of course these waves would have to survive the long road out in front of it to even get there.


They have, judging by how many get into the EP basin
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Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#108 Postby boca » Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:29 pm

I think the only systems will be tracking in the Atlantic are ULL’s .
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#109 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:36 am

Below average season expected now by NOAA.

 https://twitter.com/SurfnWeatherman/status/1027563774717374464


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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#110 Postby SoupBone » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:39 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Below average season expected now by NOAA.



I'm curious as to what they're seeing long term, as we only have about 1 month left until peak season. SAL appears to be lessening some.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#111 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:42 am

SoupBone wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Below average season expected now by NOAA.



I'm curious as to what they're seeing long term, as we only have about 1 month left until peak season. SAL appears to be lessening some.

citing a developing El Nino, lower-than-normal sea surface temperatures, stronger wind shear and drier air.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#112 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:50 am

Here is the thing about these low forecasts

If we have a 2009 from here on out, we will have 13 storms and 5 hurricanes for the year
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#113 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:59 am

Alyono wrote:Here is the thing about these low forecasts

If we have a 2009 from here on out, we will have 13 storms and 5 hurricanes for the year

Which seems realistic considering the way things are going so far.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#114 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:09 am

New Euro seasonal forecast is for 5.5 named storms from September to November, including 2.9 hurricanes. Seems reasonable. The deep tropics are just dead. Several big dust outbreaks into mid August. SSTs much cooler than normal, cool AMO, very stable air south of 20N. Have to watch the western part of the basin - western Caribbean, Gulf, and off the SE U.S. Coast.

Quite stable in the Tropical Atlantic. Caribbean is stable, too, plus it has higher than normal shear. Gulf is more unstable and has lower shear than normal, though.
Image

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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#115 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:18 pm

Hurricanes that form in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico don't have as much room to recurve or get torn up by TUTTs, but on the other hand they are slightly less likely to become monster size major hurricanes before proximity to land slows them down.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#116 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:40 pm

Well harvey was a monster size one
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#117 Postby emeraldislenc » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:43 pm

So was Camille
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#118 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 29, 2018 6:31 am

As we all know by now most experts' forecasts were all a bust, with all due respect. CSU took a gamble and it didn't worked out.

NDG wrote:So in another words season cancelled per the CSU team with only 3 more hurricanes for the remainder of the hurricane season, it could be right or it could be a big bust if the MDR warms up in September and the weak warming in ENSO regions remains central based.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#119 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:23 am

CSU’s April forecast of 14/7/3 was almost spot on assuming Oscar can become a major and we do not get anymore storms. Heck, even TSR back in last December were calling for 15/7/3 so the way I see it once May rolled around and the Spring barrier started to pass they were big time betting that an El Niño would once again form in time to damper the season.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#120 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:51 am

TheStormExpert wrote:CSU’s April forecast of 14/7/3 was almost spot on assuming Oscar can become a major and we do not get anymore storms. Heck, even TSR back in last December were calling for 15/7/3 so the way I see it once May rolled around and the Spring barrier started to pass they were big time betting that an El Niño would once again form in time to damper the season.


Yeah, they bet too much on the developing El Nino that it was going to dampen the season along the cool MDR which many thought the active era was over and went with analog years that were in the non active era. What made also made it tricky to forecast was how active the Pacific was which usually means a below average Atlantic Basin. I think next time they will pay more attention to the Euro's weeklies forecast, IMO.
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