Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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cycloneye
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#121 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:15 am

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1067799022411235329




Extract:

The 2018 hurricane season overall was slightly above average. The season was
characterized by above-average numbers of named storms and hurricanes and nearaverage
numbers of major hurricanes. Our initial seasonal forecast issued in April
correctly predicted a slightly above-average season, while later seasonal forecasts
underestimated Atlantic hurricane activity. These downward adjustments were primarily
due to anomalous tropical Atlantic SST cooling. Despite a relatively cold tropical
Atlantic, early September 2018 was extremely active and was the primary driver of the
slightly above-average season that occurred. In addition, six of the fifteen named storms
that formed in 2018 were initially classified as subtropical, and these types of systems
that form in the subtropics do not respond to large-scale tropical climate drivers in the
same way that TCs forming in the tropics do.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#122 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:06 pm

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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#123 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:11 am

Overall, it was numerically only slightly above average. It just happened to produce two really bad storms.
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