Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#41 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Apr 17, 2018 10:28 am

JB's update from March. Interesting, I'm thinking that he's in the minority with a below to average average season. Looks like the main concern for landfall would be SEUS to New England with a high fish content (my interpretation, not a quote). As usual he's hugging the Euro and its prediction of below average sst's in Aug to Oct period. I would follow his thinking if it wasn't for last year’s debacle (by everyone, not just him). I guess the “2017 Monkey Wrench” will always be in the back of my mind when it comes to predictions.

https://www.weatherbell.com/2018-hurric ... ril-update
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#42 Postby NotSparta » Tue Apr 17, 2018 10:54 am

OuterBanker wrote:JB's update from March. Interesting, I'm thinking that he's in the minority with a below to average average season. Looks like the main concern for landfall would be SEUS to New England with a high fish content (my interpretation, not a quote). As usual he's hugging the Euro and its prediction of below average sst's in Aug to Oct period. I would follow his thinking if it wasn't for last year’s debacle (by everyone, not just him). I guess the “2017 Monkey Wrench” will always be in the back of my mind when it comes to predictions.

https://www.weatherbell.com/2018-hurric ... ril-update


He's also hugging the Euro ENSO predictions, which would push him further into the below average camp.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#43 Postby SFLcane » Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:34 am

chris_fit wrote:NCSU Hurricane Season 2018 Forecast Posted...

https://news.ncsu.edu/2018/04/2018-hurr ... rediction/


Named Storms: 14–18
Hurricanes: 7–11
Major: 3–5


Hmm interesting there forcasting quite the blockbuster year in 2018. NCSU has done rather well with there predictions so we shall see.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#44 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:41 am

NotSparta wrote:
OuterBanker wrote:JB's update from March. Interesting, I'm thinking that he's in the minority with a below to average average season. Looks like the main concern for landfall would be SEUS to New England with a high fish content (my interpretation, not a quote). As usual he's hugging the Euro and its prediction of below average sst's in Aug to Oct period. I would follow his thinking if it wasn't for last year’s debacle (by everyone, not just him). I guess the “2017 Monkey Wrench” will always be in the back of my mind when it comes to predictions.

https://www.weatherbell.com/2018-hurric ... ril-update


He's also hugging the Euro ENSO predictions, which would push him further into the below average camp.


I deliberately didn’t mention his Euro ENSO reference. Was not last years “Monkey Wrench” based on ENSO predictions. His 2017 predictions on season average was just about the same as this year on numbers. Landfall on the other hand was different. The Euro ENSO prediction last year this time of year was not good. I just don’t trust ENSO predictions in April.
Maybe we should name this season “Waiting for El Nino”
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#45 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:56 pm

SFLcane wrote:
chris_fit wrote:NCSU Hurricane Season 2018 Forecast Posted...

https://news.ncsu.edu/2018/04/2018-hurr ... rediction/


Named Storms: 14–18
Hurricanes: 7–11
Major: 3–5


Hmm interesting there forcasting quite the blockbuster year in 2018. NCSU has done rather well with there predictions so we shall see.


The oldest publicly available forecast from NCSU dates back to 2015. Here is the record since then:

NCSU's April 2015 forecast: 4–6 NS / 1–3 H / 1 MH
Actual 2015 numbers: 11 NS / 4 H / 2 MH
Verdict: Correctly diagnosed a below-average season, but underestimated overall activity.

https://news.ncsu.edu/2015/04/hurricane-2015/

NCSU's April 2016 forecast: 15–18 NS / 8–11 H / 3–5 MH
Actual 2016 numbers: 15 NS / 7 H / 4 MH
Verdict: A rather impressive verification for a preseason forecast, mostly falling within range.

https://news.ncsu.edu/2016/04/hurricane-2016/

NCSU's April 2017 forecast: 11–15 NS / 4–6 H / 1–3 MH
Actual 2017 numbers: 17 NS / 10 H / 6 MH
Verdict: A notable underestimation of overall activity on all counts.

https://news.ncsu.edu/2017/04/2017-hurricane/

NCSU's April 2018 forecast: 14–18 NS / 7–11 H / 3–5 MH
Actual 2018 numbers: ??? NS / ??? H / ??? MH

https://news.ncsu.edu/2018/04/2018-hurricane-prediction/

Considering that only one forecast is issued each April, I would say that the sample size, while small, betrays a rather accurate record. The interesting part is that the forecasts have often verified on the low side. However, the projected numbers for 2018 indicate a wider range of possibilities than in any of the previous outlooks, so there is higher uncertainty this time.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#46 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 20, 2018 6:11 am

The Weather Channel just released their outlook. They’re going with an average season with 13/7/2.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-04-19-2018-hurricane-season-forecast-the-weather-company-ibm-april
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#47 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:26 am

TheStormExpert wrote:The Weather Channel just released their outlook. They’re going with an average season with 13/7/2.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-04-19-2018-hurricane-season-forecast-the-weather-company-ibm-april


Added to the list at first post.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#48 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:55 am

TheStormExpert wrote:The Weather Channel just released their outlook. They’re going with an average season with 13/7/2.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-04-19-2018-hurricane-season-forecast-the-weather-company-ibm-april

For anyone that's interested, TWC's April hurricane forecast this April is pretty much close to identical in forecasting an average season as to the one of last April for the 2017 season before they went upwards in May once we successfully passed the spring barrier.

2017 :darrow:
Image

2018 :darrow:
Image
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#49 Postby NotSparta » Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:00 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:The Weather Channel just released their outlook. They’re going with an average season with 13/7/2.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-04-19-2018-hurricane-season-forecast-the-weather-company-ibm-april

For anyone that's interested, TWC's April hurricane forecast this April is pretty much close to identical in forecasting an average season as to the one of last April for the 2017 season before they went upwards in May once we successfully passed the spring barrier.

2017 :darrow:
[im g]http://i65.tinypic.com/1i3p2.jpg[/img]

2018 :darrow:
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/0R7oMjv.jpg[/img]


Also, their reasons for the season being hampered are similar to last year, El Nino and -AMO.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#50 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:09 am

NotSparta wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:The Weather Channel just released their outlook. They’re going with an average season with 13/7/2.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-04-19-2018-hurricane-season-forecast-the-weather-company-ibm-april

For anyone that's interested, TWC's April hurricane forecast this April is pretty much close to identical in forecasting an average season as to the one of last April for the 2017 season before they went upwards in May once we successfully passed the spring barrier.

2017 :darrow:
[i mg]http://i65.tinypic.com/1i3p2.jpg[/img]

2018 :darrow:
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/0R7oMjv.jpg[/img]


Also, their reasons for the season being hampered are similar to last year, El Nino and -AMO.

Which the exact opposite happened. This is exactly why any pre-seasonal forecasts before May are likely useless. Now if an evident El Niño or La Niña were present this wouldn’t be the case.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#51 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:42 pm

The August 2nd CSU forecast will be the one to look at as there will be no spring barrier to cast doubts.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#52 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 14, 2018 12:02 pm

JB May 14 forecast is up.See it here.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#53 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 15, 2018 12:06 pm

NOAA will release their first 2018 forecast on May 24.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#54 Postby Shell Mound » Sat May 19, 2018 5:55 am

Based on a number of factors, 2018 is likely to be one of the least active seasons on record. The near-record +PMM and extremely cold -AMO, coupled with a developing El Niño, mean that many forecasts will need to be adjusted significantly downward. I do believe that CSU will lower its numbers, but perhaps insufficiently so, owing to (understandable) conservatism. My personal, humble opinion is that anyone who is forecasting more than ten storms is going to bust. The forecasts of thirteen to fifteen named storms look to be highly inflated as the meteorological evidence continues to stack up against an active or even average season. I could be wrong, of course, but the factors seem very unfavourable. What will be interesting to see is whether NCSU's call for an active season somehow verifies. NCSU has a reliable long-range record going back to 2015, and this year it is expecting fourteen to eighteen named storms, along with many hurricanes and majors, though it does not list its evidence for its forecasts. We shall see.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May forecast is u

#55 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 24, 2018 10:22 am

NOAA is up.

Image
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May forecast is up

#56 Postby Kazmit » Thu May 24, 2018 5:06 pm

10-16 named storms is not a very specific prediction. :eek:
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May forecast is up

#57 Postby canes92 » Thu May 24, 2018 8:03 pm

So...

13
7
2
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May forecast is up

#58 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 24, 2018 9:35 pm

Kazmit wrote:10-16 named storms is not a very specific prediction. :eek:

It’s years like this that makes the infamous range of numbers that NOAA gives kind of useless. What they are saying is that this could be anywhere from an below average season to an above average one with numbers slightly below last seasons totals.

I also don’t get how they are seeing odds of an above average season being higher than odds of an below average season. The current SST configuration is a complete flip compared to this time last year.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA May forecast is up

#59 Postby StruThiO » Thu May 24, 2018 10:35 pm

:uarrow: they explicitly state they think the MDR will warm back to near neutral levels during the Summer, this combined with the +AMO background means an above season is still possible. Oh and they aren't really buying el nino.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#60 Postby ouragans » Tue May 29, 2018 4:23 pm

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